Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to the
Productivity Podcast.
I'm delighted again to bejoined by Dan Well for our
monthly catch-up on footfall andwe're talking from August to
September, hi, dayan.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Hello Simon, how are
you?
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Yeah, good Thanks,
and there's been a few changes
in your world since we lastspoke, I think hasn't there?
Speaker 2 (00:19):
There have I left MRI
software this week actually.
So it's my first few days ofindependent working, so that's
going to be really exciting.
So I'm going to be working witha host of people, including
yourselves, hopefully,supporting retail.
My passion is retail and bricksand mortar retail and insights.
(00:39):
So from the outside, probablynot much will change actually,
but I won't be bound by 9 to 5anymore, which will be quite
exciting.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Excellent.
Yeah, you can work 8 to latenow.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Absolutely Well, I do
that anyway, Simon.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Happy days, Good.
So I think last time we spokewe were in August to September.
No, we weren't.
We were in July to August.
Now we're August to September.
So September's results whenhave we headed and how was it
looking?
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Well, they were
pretty much what we would have
expected to see in September.
So every year what we see isthis pattern of footfall that
rises up to mid-summer and thendrops down in September, and
that's happened every year.
Mri size is published from databack in 2009.
And it's an established pattern.
Everyone finishes their holiday, the schools go back, people go
(01:31):
back to work, they rail back alittle bit in anticipation of
Halloween now and also thenChristmas.
So we saw a drop in footfall.
There was a drop in footfall ofjust under 3% 2.8% from August
to September, which wasn'tsurprising.
And actually the ONS havereleased the sales data today
(01:52):
and they're highlighting thatvolumes of sales have dropped
from August to September, with asort of note of surprise, but
of course I wasn't surprisedbecause I was expecting that
anyway.
So it wasn't particularly itwasn't particularly shocking, so
I don't think we should bestartled by that at all.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
So a typical trend
that you'd see.
I'm just trying to think whatthe weather was like.
It was unseasonably hot, wasn'tit?
Speaker 2 (02:21):
It was warm.
Yes, it was warm, and ONS havesaid that was one of the reasons
it possibly was.
I mean, I've looked back at thefootfall data for preceding
years and it's no.
The drop from August toSeptember this year was no
greater than it had been inpreceding years.
So yes, we did have some warmweather, but that actually does
(02:44):
help, for sometimes people wantto go out and spend money and
enjoy things.
If it's not shopping, it mightbe a cup of coffee or for lunch.
So certainly it wasn't anythingdistinctive in September and
that's actually very encouraging, because if the drop had been
much more severe than it hadbeen in previous years, then it
(03:04):
would have pointed to theeconomy being particularly
impacted by the challenges thatwe're facing in terms of
inflation and rising interestrates.
So that should be comfortingfor the retailers who are
listening.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Yeah, and I think
they've just announced that
Average weekly earnings figuresJuly to August for this year
were above inflation for thefirst time in two years.
So for the economy's out therethat will probably mean more
than it does to me, buteveryone's telling me that's a
good thing.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Yeah, it's a fine
balance, isn't it?
Because it's because inflationhas been pushed down, because
interest rates have gone up.
So it's checks and balances.
You know, interest inflation isdropping.
It didn't drop.
Of course.
The latest results said it wasstatic from the previous month,
so sitting at 6.7%.
The prices are still rising,and we have to acknowledge that,
(03:52):
and they're rising more in foodthan they are in non-food, but
it hasn't gone up and of coursethat means that our salaries
have probably seen someincreases above, above inflation
.
But of course we're being hitby higher interest rates, which
has driven that inflation rightnow.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Yeah, yeah, and we
kind of head into the, the
golden quarter, I suppose, if wejust think about retail and
hospitality.
So those Christmas parties andEvery retailer I go in now
They've kind of, I think, almostScaled back a little bit on
Halloween, but certainly there'ssome on the shelves.
But again all the bigsupermarkets, all the discountes
(04:29):
, you know, steve, starting tosee Christmas Creep in.
We've got half term at the endof October, black Fridays I
think Towards the end, 24th ofNovember.
So there's kind of lots ofevents now in the calendar,
isn't there?
Then clearly We've gotChristmas and and then the
January sales coming, so so lotsof things to try and stimulate
(04:50):
spending.
I wonder if people will goearly, if they'll wait for
discounts or they'll hang on forlast-minute discounts.
This year I'm not quite surewhat the buying pattern will
look like.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Yeah, no, it's always
.
It's always interesting everyyear.
It's always a complete unknown.
I mean, I think what we've seenover the last few years is is
that Black Friday is in thediary and, however much people
say it's a con or it's, you know, it's nothing special.
It's an opportunity for peopleto start planning Christmas more
easily in terms of theirspending.
And clearly, if you're going tobuy Presence for people, if
(05:24):
you've got an opportunity to buythose as a discounted level,
you're going to take thatopportunity.
So I think quite a lot ofpeople use Black Friday as an
opportunity to go out and dosome early Christmas Shopping.
And you're right about theHalloween Christmas balance.
I've noticed it too insupermarkets.
It's not nearly as bigHalloween this year and I've
seen the Christmas puddings andmince pies on the shelves
(05:45):
already, which is a little bitshocking, because I don't start
eating my mince pies untilBeginning of December, otherwise
it's not good for the body.
But yes, I think what they seemto have done is scale back on
the Halloween promotions andfocusing more on the Christmas
To try and drive spendingtowards Christmas.
So I think that bodes Well forChristmas, but I think people
(06:10):
will look to spread purchasesand budget more carefully and of
course, black Friday is anopportunity to do some of that
in November.
So it will be all foropportunities for retailers to
capture the shop early.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Yeah, and I'm.
I'm seeing, you know I get allthe things I've signed up to in
my, my email but I'm seeingagain Some retos do things
differently.
So size the kind of trainershop just.
I think yesterday, the daybefore, I had a blanket 20% of
everything voucher to try andstimulate a sale, a source of
kind of giving anotherpercentage off the percentages
(06:43):
They've already got.
So I think there seems to bethis trend towards more Periodic
discounts, like kind of littleand often, and clearly they'll
be targeting certain types ofshoppers that have shot
regularly, that haven't shot tostimulate more.
But Again, people starting tothink differently again.
But some of that must hitmargin because For some people
(07:05):
you'll be almost autodiscounting something they were
going to buy anyway.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Absolutely, and I
think a lot of those discounts
are about getting rid of excessstock from the summer.
The trainer shops clearly, ifthey haven't mopped up the
students spend by now.
They probably feel they're notgoing to.
So I know a number of shoeretailers who who are trade very
heavily with amongst studentsand they focus very heavily on
(07:31):
the start of the university yearterm where they've all have
their Loans.
So it may be part of trying toclear the shelves and make way
for Christmas stock.
And certainly people at ASOSwill have sort of quite a lot of
stock hanging over in thesummer.
It wasn't a great summer sopeople probably wouldn't have
bought nearly as much summerfashion as they might have done
(07:53):
if the weather had been better.
So that's probably part ofgetting rid of the stuff, the
inventory and clearing the wayfor new stock and allow and
allowing Christmas to take totake precedence.
It will be interesting to seewhether how much beyond Black
Friday, how much of the salesthere will be, because a lot of
(08:13):
retailers have railed back onordering stock and just being a
little bit more cautious Aroundhow much stock they're going to
carry.
So whether they're not,there'll be Sufficient stock to
have huge sales and hugediscounts post Christmas.
That will be really interesting.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
Yeah, it's always
turkeys as well in food, isn't
it?
There's always a massiveshortage because something's
happened, or a massive overagein there.
Reduced, reduced, cheap on theon Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Absolutely.
It's the time to do yourChristmas food shopping, but are
you brave enough?
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Yeah, I'm not quite
there.
I don't think I'd get shot, Ithink, if I left it that late
and came back with Withsomething that I wasn't supposed
to.
But so I suppose in summaryyear today we've had some peaks
and troughs, as I think youexpect in any kind of data
Tracking, I think the lastcouple of months, in terms of
(09:04):
what you do expect, I think thebig unknown, as we say going in,
is where the economy is.
I also think the weather'sprobably got a big part to play.
You know we're in October, aswe record, and we've already had
two storms and Recordtemperatures for the month.
So it just feels a bit weird interms of what, what's going to
get thrown us from an economicPoint of view, but also from a
(09:26):
weather point of view, whichclearly has a massive impact.
Speaker 2 (09:29):
It does.
I remember last year, lastChristmas, a week before
Christmas, we had rail strikesfor three days of the week
before Christmas.
Yeah so, and of course peopleyou get sent to get this
polarized spending peaks andtroughs.
So Black Friday's Love it orhate it, people do spend on
Black Friday and then it goesinto a bit of a lull until sort
of mid Mid-December and then itreally ramps up.
(09:52):
But of course last year in theweek that was supposed to be the
peak week, we have rail strikeswhich really did up,
destabilize things a little bit,impacted high streets, so
people went to retail parts andshopping centers and it was
extremely cold.
Remember I was doing an outsidebroadcast with BBC and it was
minus nine in in one Saturdaymorning.
It was absolutely freezing.
(10:14):
So you're right that weatherreally plays part and of course,
if it's very, very cold, peoplewill Gravitate more towards
covered shopping centers thanthey would to high streets.
That's inevitable.
Why would you want to beoutside if you don't have to be?
And of course, if it's pouring,your row with rain light wise.
But I'm anticipating that thisChristmas will be a little more
(10:34):
subdued than the last Christmasanyway, partly because of all
things have gone up in cost andpeople have Been away this year
and probably spent more onholidays than they had in the
previous certainly in theprevious three years Because a
lot of people hadn't been onholiday because of COVID and
high price of holidays had goneup and of course, inflation's
been Very high.
So I'm expecting a more subduedChristmas, generally not
(10:56):
significant, I mean, I'm notexpecting a disaster, but the
people would just be much morecautious because the course
called.
A lot of people are lookingover the hill into january and
seeing there are fixed ratemortgages ending and coming into
new arrangements on yourvariable rates which will set
them back a huge amount on termsof household budget each month.
Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, we're not.
We're not really touched onenergy this.
So signs are it's gonna comedown and there's all sorts of
kind of Offers starting to comeback to the table on charging
your electric car overnight toget a discounted rate.
I think british gas doing aSunday save a rate between
eleven and five so thathopefully will continue to ease.
Speaker 2 (11:36):
Yes, absolutely.
And all these, these littleincentives and these I mean I've
seen, you know, cost of fuelcome down, that makes a big
difference on the householdbudget for a lot of people.
You know not that's a meal outor it's a present for a family
member.
So all of these things make ahuge difference when you add
them all up in the totality.
(11:57):
So I think we're actually itwas, it's going to be a
christmas of caution.
I don't think it's actuallygoing to be a disaster, straight
increases by any means, but Ithink people are going to be
quite Deserning around what theybuy and I know the christmas,
yeah, food sharpen, the familyget together and the friends, I
think, will remain.
The hospitality bit will beinteresting that you mentioned
(12:19):
around christmas parties becauseof course every so many people
work remotely for at least partof the week now that actually
they may become quite big orthey may for some companies not
happen at all or be very subduedor much more local, and I know
a lot of businesses of scalingback on christmas events just
(12:40):
because the sheer scale of theprice, you know, when you look
at it at a corporate level.
So that is going to be aninteresting one to watch.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
Yep, but lots of
christmas conferences.
I see on on linkedin.
It's that time when they saypeople are getting ready for the
golden quarter, so good to seewhat's the familiar faces kind
of at their corporate christmasconferences, all geared up for,
hopefully, what will be a bumpertime for absolutely, absolutely
.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
And I mean I think
what we have learned through
covids, that people want tosocialize, want to get together.
So actually I think hospitalityis a fairly good place,
although obviously the cost ofthe cost of sale is higher than
it has been.
Speaker 1 (13:17):
Absolutely brilliant.
On that note will pause andlet's hope the weather where by
me stops raining by the time wespeak next month, because it
looks like it's setting for awhile and we'll see where we get
to september, to october.
Great, good speak, catch youson take care.