EP39 - Deep Dive chat on Tadej Pogacar's insane power metrics and physiology (ft_ AI Insights)

EP39 - Deep Dive chat on Tadej Pogacar's insane power metrics and physiology (ft_ AI Insights)

Original article: https://the5krunner.com/2025/10/27/tadej-pogacar-training-data-340w-zone-2-power-213-bpm-max-hr-metrics/

And with thanks to Peter Attia

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome back to the Deep Dive today, what we're really getting
under the hood of maybe one of the most incredible endurance
athletes on the planet. We are.
We're looking at the actual physiological numbers of Tadish
Pogachar, the elite Grand Tour cycling champion.
And this isn't speculation, thisis based on some pretty rare
data, right? Stuff he's shared himself.

(00:20):
Exactly. It's largely from a really
insightful interview he gave andthen you have analysis from
places like the 5K Runner, whichdid a fantastic job synthesising
it all. Great site.
Yeah. So our mission today is
basically to unpack that. What makes this engine tick?
What are the secrets to his performance and maybe just as
importantly, his recovery? Absolutely, and we should

(00:42):
probably start with the number that just jumps off the page,
the one that makes even seasonedpros shake their heads.
You mean his aerobic power? That zone 2 stuff.
Precisely. Forget the sprints for a moment,
it's what he can sustain almost comfortably that's just mind
blowing. We'll get deep into that.
OK. But before we hit the power, you
need the context, right? The sort of operating range of
the heart itself, Max and resting rates.

(01:04):
Yeah, you need the floor and theceiling first.
So let's talk maximum heart rate, HR Max.
He's been tracking this stuff for a long time.
Since he was pretty young, I gather.
Yeah, as a junior, he apparentlyhit 213 beats per minute.
Just think about. That 213 that's, that's
incredibly high. It is very elastic young heart.

(01:24):
Now. More recently, like the day
before this key interview, he mentioned hitting 203 BPM.
OK. So a drop of 10 beads, is that
significant or just, you know, getting a tiny bit older?
It's mostly physiological maturation.
I think what's key is that two O3 is still, as he put it, still
pretty high. He seemed quite happy with it.
And that high ceiling gives him a massive range to work with

(01:46):
him. Exactly.
It allows for those huge power numbers we'll talk about later.
It's the upper limit of his system.
All right, so that's the top end.
What about the bottom resting heart rate RHR?
This is where you see the efficiency.
His lowest ever recorded RHR since he started tracking was 37
BPM. 37 Wow. Yeah, but day-to-day, or rather

(02:06):
night tonight, his average is usually around 42 to 43 BPM.
Which signifies incredible cardiac efficiency, right?
Pumping a lot of blood with eachbeat.
That's the hallmark of elite aerobic fitness.
Maximum output, minimum effort when resting.
And how does he actually use that RHR number?
Is it just a vanity metric? Oh no, it's practical.
He uses it as a red flag. If that nightly average jumps

(02:30):
up, say to 4849 or especially over 50, he knows something's
up. Either he's getting sick or he's
carrying some serious fatigue from training.
It's a simple built in alarm system.
OK, so basic HR gives him the range and a fatigue warning that
leads nicely into heart rate variability, HRV, doesn't it?
Which is, well, it's a bit more complex.

(02:50):
It is, yeah, and his relationship with HRV is
interesting too. He apparently started tracking
it around 2020, but was pretty sceptical at first, said he
didn't find it very helpful. Right.
A lot of people find it confusing.
The numbers can swing wildly. Exactly.
But he came back to it more recently this past year and said
he quite likes it now. But he's learned to interpret it
carefully. And his range is huge, right?

(03:12):
What did the sources say? Yeah, on a good day, he might
hit 12130, maybe even peak up near 150 for his HIV score.
But it can also plummet. Right down, he mentioned seeing
it as low as 35. Possibly after you know, having
a drink or something similar. Non training stress impacts it
massively. So that huge variation could be

(03:32):
misleading day-to-day, but what about during something like the
Tour de France? Ah, see, that's what's
fascinating During those huge multi week efforts, the Jiro or
the Tour, his HRV apparently stays remarkably stable,
typically averaging somewhere between 80 and 110 every single
day. That level of stability under

(03:52):
that kind of crushing load, that's almost unbelievable.
It speaks to just insane in recovery capacity.
His body is finding equilibrium night after night.
But the real gem here, the thingI think listeners can really
take away, is the mental side ofhow he uses it.
What do you mean? He noticed that seeing a low HIV
number first thing in the morning could get in your head a
little bit. It could plant that seed of

(04:13):
doubt before big stage. The self fulfilling prophecy.
You see a bad number, you expectto feel bad, so you do.
Exactly so his solution was brilliant really.
He had his girlfriend check his HRV score after the race was.
Done. Get the data for later analysis,
but don't let it mess with your head on race day.
That's yeah, that's smart. It's managing the psychological
load, not just the physical. Collect the data, yes, but use

(04:35):
it strategically. Don't let it undermine your
confidence when you need it most.
That's a fantastic insight. OK, let's pivot now to the
power, the Zone 2 numbers that kind of define his engine.
Right, this is where things get,well, humbling for the rest of
us. He defines his zones by feel,
heart rate and power, balancing all three.
And his zone 2, that sustainableaerobic zone.

(04:57):
What are the numbers? When he's feeling fresh, his
heart rate in zone 2 is around a155 BPM.
OK. Quite high for zone 2 but within
elite ranges and the power at that HR.
Get this 320 to 340 watts. Whoa, OK, wait. 340 watts as his
aerobic zone. That's what the data suggests.
I mean, Peter Adia in his commentary basically said

(05:19):
sustaining 320 to 340 watts for five hours is really remarkable
and it is. That's threshold power for many
very good riders. And he can just cruise it that
for hours. Apparently so one fresh.
But here's maybe the most remarkable part, something the
5K runner piece really highlighted how it changes when

(05:39):
he's fatigued. OK, what happens then?
Does the power drop off? No, that's the thing, The power
stays the same, still 320 to 340watts, but his heart rate
actually drops to maintain it down to maybe 140 to 145 BPM.
His heart rate goes down for thesame massive power output when
he's tired. How does that work?
That seems backward. It's called decoupling, but in

(05:59):
his case it's like decoupling inreverse, or rather a sign of
extreme efficiency. Usually when fatigued, your HR
drifts up for the same power because your system is less
efficient. Right cardiac drift.
Yeah, but for him to hold that huge wattage with a suppressed
heart rate, it means his musclesare incredibly efficient at
using oxygen and fuel. His metabolic engine is just

(06:21):
attuned to an unbelievable degree.
Less cardiovascular strain for world class work output, even
when tired. That's yeah, that's difficult to
comprehend. But even he can't do that day
after day in a three-week race without consequences, right?
He has to manage it. Absolutely, and this shows his
intelligence as an athlete. He talked about specific
scenarios like say a long 5 hourflat training ride.

(06:43):
If he knows he needs top recovery for a hard session the
next day, he won't push that three 23140 Watt zone 2 even
though he physically can. Why not if it's technically his
zone too? Because the cumulative fatigue,
the recovery cost would be too high, it would compromise the
next day's quality. So on those specific rides,
he'll deliberately back it off, maybe riding at 290 or 300 watts

(07:04):
instead. So he's choosing slightly less
optimal training stimulus today to guarantee readiness for a key
session tomorrow. That's sophisticated load
management. It really is.
It shows he's thinking long term, race term, not just about
maximising every single ride. He trusts his body's response
over just hitting a number. Which actually leads perfectly
into his broader training philosophy, doesn't it?

(07:26):
What tools does he trust most? It does, and the big theme seems
to be a deep trust in his own body and the metrics he's known
the longest. He's been using a heart rate
monitor since he was like 10 or 12 years old.
So decades of data. Exactly, and he actually
expressed a preference for HR over power metres, which might
surprise some people. Yeah, power metres are kind of

(07:46):
the gold standard now. Why the scepticism?
He mentioned reliability issues,things like temperature changes
affecting accuracy, calibration drift, general sensor fussiness.
Compared to that, his heart rateis this consistent internal
signal he's understood for years.
So he kind of calibrates the power metre to his trusted heart
rate zones, not the other way around.
That seems to be the implication.

(08:08):
The HR is the anchor. OK, interesting.
What about other metrics? Does he track climbing
performance specifically? Oh yeah, he uses Van Velocity
Ascensionelli Media average ascent speed, basically metres
climbed per hour. A classic cycling metric,
especially for climbers. And his numbers there.
He said he can hit 1700 to 1800 van on a reasonably steep climb,

(08:30):
like 7 to 7.5% gradient, going full gas for about 15 minutes.
And for context, what's considered elite for VAM?
Well, getting over 1600 is worldclass.
Consistently hitting 1700 or 1800, especially for 15 minutes.
That's rarefied air, especially considering his weight, which is
around 69 kilos in the offseason.
It just confirms that explosive climbing power.

(08:52):
So the huge aerobic base that zone 2 power translates directly
into world beating climbing speed makes sense.
What about formal lab testing? Does he do standard VO2 Max or
FTP tests? Apparently not so much anymore.
He said. He hasn't done a true VO2 Max
test or a standard 20 minute FTPtest in quite a while.
Really. So how does he benchmark his
fitness or set zones formally? His approach sounds more

(09:15):
tailored. He uses home trainer tests, but
they involve these 10 minute steps of increasing power and
the key is he's taking lactate readings from his earlobe every
5 minutes during these steps. Lactate testing, so he's mapping
his metabolic response directly.Exactly pinpointing those
thresholds where lactate starts to accumulate rapidly.
It gives a much more detailed picture of his actual

(09:36):
physiological zones than a simple FTP test would.
He also mentioned doing structured fatigue tests like
repeating 8 minute blocks of increasing power, ending in an
all out effort specifically to see how his system performs
under duress. It sounds incredibly precise,
but focused on his specific responses, not just standard
protocols. That's the impression highly

(09:57):
individualised. OK, so pulling this all
together, we have the low resting heart rate, the Himax,
the stable HRV under pressure, that incredible zone 2 power and
efficiency, the massive VAM, thereliance on HR and lactate.
What's the big takeaway here? I think the core lesson is that
his success is this blend of frankly, abnormal Physiology.
That 340 W Zone 2 is just a gift.

(10:19):
Right. You can't just train that from
average. Probably not to that level, no,
but it's paired with incredibly smart self management.
He uses the data, but he's not aslave to it.
He trusts his body, trusts his long term HR data and makes
strategic choices like backing off power for recovery.
And he knows when the data itself might be detrimental,

(10:41):
like checking HRV before a race.Precisely.
That might be the biggest lessonfor everyone listening.
You know, The analysts all agreeyou need the genetics and the
insane commitment to training tobe a champion, no doubt.
But what can we learn? The transferable skill is that
mental management of data. If tracking your sleep or your
HRV or even your weight starts making you anxious before a big

(11:04):
day, whether it's a race, a presentation, whatever, think
about Poca Char's tactic. Could you arrange to check those
numbers after the event? Get the benefit of the data for
long term learning, but shield your confidence in the crucial
moments separating the objectiveanalysis from the subjective
execution. That's a powerful strategy
regardless of your watts. Don't let the numbers get in

(11:24):
your head when performance counts.
That's a great final thought to leave people with.
Thanks for breaking all that down.
My pleasure. It's fascinating stuff.