Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and
Southeast today...
...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week
...
...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and
Louisiana on Thursday...
A fairly weak frontal system centered over the Missouri Bootheel continues
to drive wet and unsettled weather east of the Mississippi River today,
with several areas of shower and thunderstorm activity noted across the
eastern half of the Lower 48. Through tomorrow morning, the Storm
Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather across the
Tennessee Valley and over North-Central Florida as thunderstorms organize
and intensify this afternoon. Severe hail and wind remain the primary
concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated flash
flooding also can not be ruled out with some of these storms along the
slow moving front, with localized rainfall of 1-3" possible.
Across South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an
approaching mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather
beginning tomorrow, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible.
Localized Major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot
weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk
guidance. Hazardous heat also will build into South Texas tomorrow and
Thursday as a warm front returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico,
ushering in a very warm and moist airmass into the region.
Heat aside, this returning warm front will also set the stage for
potentially significant heavy rainfall across East Texas and Louisiana on
Thursday as training thunderstorms focus along the frontal boundary. The
current forecast calls for areal rainfall totals of 3-4" (locally higher)
in this region, which has seen a near continuous stream of heavy rainfall
over the last two weeks and is particularly sensitive to any additional
rain. Accordingly, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect on the Day 3
Excessive Rainfall Outlook, which suggests numerous instances of flash
flooding are likely Thursday into Friday.
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