...Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding likely today for portions
of eastern Texas and western Louisiana...
...Potentially significant heavy rainfall threat spreads into portions of
southern Mississippi and western Alabama tomorrow...
...Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and South Texas into
this weekend...
The main weather story today remains the dangerous and life-threatening
flash flood potential over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the overnight
hours as widespread thunderstorms batter areas which are very vulnerable
to additional rainfall. Since the upgrade to a High Risk (level 4/4) of
Excessive Rainfall last night, little has changed this afternoon regarding
the placement and severity of the flash flooding threat in eastern Texas
and western Louisiana. Radar across east-central Texas this afternoon
depicts an expansive thunderstorm complex growing along a warm front, with
very moist and unstable air feeding into it to support continuous storm
development this afternoon. Going into the evening and overnight hours,
repeating of these thunderstorms containing very heavy rainfall rates
within the complex will lead to rainfall amounts of 5-8" today within the
High Risk area over eastern Texas and western Louisiana before the
thunderstorms migrate eastward by tomorrow morning. Remember, High Risks
for Excessive Rainfall are a BIG DEAL: 1/3 flood related fatalities and
4/5 flood related damages occur in WPC High Risks, so pay attention to the
latest warning information and NEVER drive or walk into floodwaters.
Flooding aside, the same storms are also capable of producing a few
tornadoes, severe wind, and hail, with the Storm Prediction Center
maintaining an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather over much of
the same area today.
By tomorrow morning, the threat of significant flash flooding will spread
east into southern Mississippi and western Alabama as the aforementioned
warm front stalls out over the Southeast. Once again, a very moist and
unstable atmosphere appears primed to support bouts of prolific heavy
rainfall, with multiple rounds of storms expected as multiple disturbances
aloft traverse the area. When combined with saturated soils from recent
heavy rainfall, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect tomorrow with
areal rainfall amounts upwards of 2-5" (locally up to 7") possible. It
should be noted that there is some uncertainty with where the heaviest
rain falls owing to how the current storms in Texas behave later today, so
stay tuned for any adjustments to the forecast. Once again, severe weather
will also be an issue south of the warm front across the Gulf States, with
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in effect for few tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging wind.
The same warm front driving the thunderstorms will also contribute to
sweltering heat in South Florida and Texas. Recent experimental NWS
HeatRisk guidance continues to suggest moderate to locally major heat
related impacts will continue across these areas at least through Saturday
due to the combination of heat indices eclipsing 100 degrees, with little
overnight relief expected.
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