Unsettled weather persists across the Northeast and Central U.S today...
...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week
...
...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas into
the Gulf States tomorrow and Friday...
Several focused areas of stormy and unsettled weather can be expected
today across the central and eastern parts of the Lower 48 as a series of
frontal systems gradually migrate eastward. Along the Eastern Seaboard,
coastal low pressure located over the southern DelMarVa will maintain
locally heavy rainfall chances over Eastern Long Island and Coastal New
England through tomorrow morning, with 2-3" of rain and isolated flash
flooding possible as the storm wraps up offshore. Much of this activity in
the Northeast will remain steady stratiform rainfall, with the bulk of
robust thunderstorms being confined to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will be more widespread across the Plains
states this afternoon as a very warm and moist Gulf of Mexico airmass is
drawn northward ahead of a weak cold front. Severe weather is the big
story there, as the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) of severe thunderstorms across the Texas Panhandle and Southern
Kansas.
The same Gulf airmass will set the stage for a bout of unusually early hot
weather in South Florida and Texas, with heat indices exceeding 100
degrees possible. Owing to the combination of oppressive heat indices and
forecast record warm overnight temperatures in these areas, major
heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through
the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance.
The forecast remains on track for widespread heavy rainfall across
portions of East Texas and West Mississippi tomorrow as repeat
thunderstorm complexes track across the region, where a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) is in effect. Areal averages of 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is
forecast for the Moderate Risk area, and locally higher amounts will be
possible, which suggests numerous instances of flash flooding are likely
as the region is very sensitive to any additional rainfall. The threat is
expected to roll into Friday with another Moderate Risk depicted over
southern Mississippi and Alabama, as the environment is ripe for continued
thunderstorm development.
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