There is a date at the end of October when the Northern Ireland Secretary of State will call an election for the NI Assembly, or find some imaginative way to avoid national law and kick the can down the line.
The issue as to whether an Assembly will be possible after an election is centred on whether or not an 'deal' is made between the EU and the UK Govt that either a) is equal to the intent of the NI Protocol Bill (not currently stalled in the House of Lords, to some people's disappointment) and/or satisfies the DUP 'seven tests'.
Of course pressure will be on the DUP to accept ANY deal, which will be portrayed as 'the best deal ever'. There will be also voices demanding the the DUP accept the deal and to get the Assembly up and running so that the other Parties in the Executive can pretend to hand out money which in truth adds up to no more than an extra layer of bureaucracy between Westminster and getting support to households.
The context is one of febrile politics around Westminster where Conservative MPs are acting like a herd of cattle with BSE.
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