June 25, 2020 • 53 mins
Davis Mattek is joined by Christopher Pacheco, as the guys continue their NFL team previews by division. The guys land in the AFC East today, where the top spot is wide open after the departure of Tom Brady and the uncertainty of Jarrett Stidham. Davis and Pacheco decide who are the new favorites in the AFC East. They also discuss AFC East play-makers that you should target on your fantasy teams!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily road Our here on Sports
Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined today by Christopher Checko,
continuing our series on the program in which we are
going through all of the NFL team's division by division,
position by position, and today we are shifting our attention
to the a f C East, a division that is
actually gonna be interesting, I think from a gambling perspective,
(00:46):
from a fantasy perspective. You know, we have the ascending
Buffalo Bills, the maybe descending New England Patriots to uh
down in Miami. Maybe Donald doesn't get the cooties this year,
you know, doesn't doesn't get the kissing to ease this year,
and things go better in New York. But Checko, we
will start with your New England Patriots. So just let's
(01:07):
just let's just start here. Are you feeling optimistic or
pessimistic about the New England Patriots this year as a fan? Um? So,
as a fan, I feel optimistic that this team could
still pull off, say a wild card or be a
(01:27):
division winner. Uh. Again, I think the a FC East
is it's going to be tougher for the foreseeable future.
Now that the Dolphins have what I think is a
very legitimate quarterback. Uh and to up, though this is
going to be his first year, we don't know how
much run he's going to get. Obviously, the Buffalo Bills
(01:47):
feels like year to year they always have a really
strong defense. Maybe offensively, Uh, they shift you know, to
a new gear and get even better. Um. So the
competition Davis is certainly starting to to spice up. Um.
But for this year, I feel decently optimistic. But obviously,
you know, the one concern that is in every Patriots
(02:09):
fan has to be is the quarterback room and specifically
who is going to be the starter? Uh Jared Sidham. Uh,
you know, Davis, there's just it's not convincing enough that
he is going to be a legitimate, uh starting quarterback
at the NFL level. Uh. This is a quarterback that
in college never threw for more than nineteen passing touchdowns. Uh.
(02:33):
And he also never threw for more than thirty two yards. Uh.
He played for Auburn, so he played in the SEC.
You know, the competition is it should it's his numbers
should have been better, uh than than what they were.
And so that is my primary concern. Can a college
quarterback like this, who did not impress at all at
(02:54):
the at the collegiate level, could he go into the
NFL and be a legitimate starting quarterback. I'm just not sure. Yeah,
I think that is legitimate for sure. Um, you know,
I guess it is worth noting he was a little
bit of a runner at at Auburn and actually um
thirty six rushing attempts in uh not not very many
(03:14):
games for uh the Baylor Bears because he was actually
a transfer in he played for the Bailor Bears, appeared
in ten games, didn't start all of those. So are
are you thinking, as as a Patriots observer, like he
pretty clearly is going to be the starter over Brian Hoyer, Like,
is there is there any chance that you think Hoyer, like,
(03:35):
you know, let's say Stidham just sucks out loud through
three or four games. Do you think there's a chance
that Belichick turns things over to Hoyer at any point? No,
I don't. I don't view that as an option simply
because I think Horrier is there probably as like like
a super emergency like say he say Stidham gets hurt
(03:56):
or something that maybe Horio would get some red. Put
I don't think Warriors in a position to to really
be a starting quarterback at the NFL level. And so,
you know, David, you bring up a really good point
of what if Stadham is really bad for the first
few games, I think the Patriots would kind of just
be toast if he's not able to improve. And that's
the thing. It puts a lot of pressure on the
(04:17):
young quarterback to to go out there and succeed right
away when he hasn't really gotten a lot of reps
at the NFL level. I believe he had like I
don't know, four Pa came in. He came in and
threw either a pick six or just a regular interception
in the game where Brady was trying to rest, and
Belichick brought Brady back in, and so you know this
(04:38):
this offseason is going to be very different because of
the COVID nineteen situation, how offen speed can he get
up to? You know what? Things a lot of concerning
when it comes to the quarterback room after do England
Patriots this year? Yeah, I think those things are reasonable.
Do we think there is again any chance that Cam
Newton ends up signing as a member of the Patriots
(04:59):
or do you think at time is is mostly past us? Now?
I mean, who's this? Okay? So I think there's still
a chance. Um, Like, what if what if the Sidhama
experience just doesn't work out and we figure that out
very quickly? Um, and and Cam is still out of
the market, Like why not? I guess it would be
(05:20):
a matter of maybe he would just be too expensive
for their taste. Um, And that's it. I don't see
any other reason, because the need is clearly there. I
don't think Sidhama is going to be very good. But
maybe if he's just serviceable enough Davis, uh, maybe doing
them can run the ball enough where he's just like
he's just like a Ryan Tannehill type where he's just
(05:41):
like throwing passes and play action or something like that,
maybe he'd be like better in those situations. I'm just
not sure. Yeah, I think that could be the case.
I mean, I want them, I want them to sign Cam.
I I don't think that they will, but you know whatever,
you know, good for good for them, They'll they'll do
They'll do the Patriots way. So turning our attention to
(06:03):
the running back room, Sony Michelle, it is now been
reported has another offseason lower body surgery. You know, he
likely is going to be back by week one whenever
that's uh that does take place, you know, assuming that
Week one happens. But do we think we see more
of a role for Damian Harris this year? Is James White,
(06:23):
who really has been, you know, the consistent fantasy guy
for the Patriots over the last few years. You know,
I think there's certainly a chance that with Tom Brady
leaving that role that always existed for James White, that
you know that that might be out the door. Right
we we might not see that role exists with those
short passes for the running back. So you know that
(06:44):
kind of the guy that I'm betting on here from
a season long fantasy perspective is actually Damian Harris. You know,
you can get him fifteen sixteen seventeen round no one,
No one really on him. I I actually really like him.
I also like Damian Harris quite a bit. So the
running back room for the Patriots this year, it's looked
(07:04):
it's looking to be Sony Michelle when you mentioned had
offseason surgery. Brandon Bolden is going to be back, but
he he's just a vet. Um. He mostly does special
teams at this point in his career. Rex Birkhead is
back as well, uh and, and then Damian Harris, uh
and and James White. So I am mostly in agreement
(07:25):
with you. I think that the guy to buy here
is the youngster Damien Harris. I think, you know, Michelle,
with that off seats and surgery and just the numbers
that he's put up at the NFL level from a
from an efficiency perspective really hasn't been great. Um. So
I'm hoping that the Patriots has turned the page to
Damien Harris. Uh And. I think you know, Rex Burkhead
(07:47):
is someone to keep an eye on as well, again
in another vet, but you know, when on the field,
he he could be productive, tends to be productive. That
the biggest if is if he can stay on the
field because most of the time, he's just hurt. Um.
So from a fantasy perspective, that is tough. I think
the best bet here is David Harris. I think James White, uh,
it's gonna be a tougher sell without Brady. I think
(08:09):
the Patriots need to figure out a way, um to
not give away what they're going to do offensively to
the opponents. Because once Sony Michelle is in on the field,
you know he's not going to catch passes. Once James
White is on the field, you know it's it's mostly
gonna be a passing play. So they need to get
a little bit more creative with that. And I think
with Damian Harris in there that they might be able
(08:32):
to do that. Yeah. So I think, yeah, the reason
why you want Damian Harris is you don't you don't
want to broadcast what you're doing as much. And theoretically
you draft Damian Harris to be the kind of like
the souped up version of uh, you know, rex burg Head,
where he can play on goal line packages, he can
catch some passes, he can pass block. I think the
(08:53):
problem you run into with Patriots running backs now and
this is even true more than in years past, where
people will be like, oh know, you can never figure
out which Patriots running back is going to be the guy.
You kind of always just draft the cheapest one. Well,
now there's a very real scenario where they play all
four of these guys. So Damian Harris plays a little,
Rex Birkehead plays a little Sony Michelle handles a lot
(09:15):
of the goal line work, James White handles, you know,
some of those obvious passing situations, and you know, I
I want there to be an avenue to Damian Harris breakout.
But it's not like they're gonna stop playing Sony Michelle. Like,
I don't really think they would flat out bench Sony Michelle,
but maybe they would. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe uh they
would in fact just straight up bench Sony Michelle if
(09:38):
he plays his poorly in twenty as he did in
t you know, outside of that Jets game, it was
a pretty brutally year for Sony Michelle. It was it
felt like a very brutal year for Sony Michelle. Maybe
he was hurt. Uh, I don't know, Davis. At this point,
I'm just I'm just kind of banking on that the
fact that he just he hasn't been very good because
he's been heard. But um, at this point, you know, realistically,
(10:01):
the Patriots need to find their identity offensively. They couldn't
really even do it with Tom Brady last year, which
is kind of scary. I know Tom Brady is not
the same quarterback he used to be, UM, but I
think this year it's kind of it's kind of a
tougher sell for the Patriots to to be better offensively
given their quarterback room and given that the running back room,
(10:21):
it certainly looks okay, but it's it's not convincing and
as you mentioned, uh, it could be split into four guys.
That's never one of what you want to hear from
fantasy perspectives for sure. So turning our attention now to
the past catchers, the only Patriots pass catcher that I
find myself drafting, Well, first of all, do you have
(10:43):
a guess of all the guys who are primarily sketchers,
who who do you think I was interested in targeting
in drafts? In so my guess is h and kill Harry,
and kill Harry. That's the guy. I mean. Uh, first
round pick was not the first wide received drafted. That
was Marquis Brown last year but and Keel Harry kind
(11:04):
of profiles as the sort of guy who is going
to start off slowly because he you know, he was
he went to a pack twelve school, so he wasn't
in the SEC against top corners, wasn't in the big
twelve against guys who are going to the NFL. I mean,
people make fun of big twelve defenses, but you know
there there's still NFL athletes there. And he got injured
as a rookie, but was able to score two touchdowns
(11:26):
on I think he had twenty four targets as a rookie.
And if if any of these guys is going to
break out and provide league winning upside, it's gonna be
in Kiel Harry. You know, Edelman is not gonna Edelman
is just not going to have that same you know,
hundred catch up side in this offense. That's that's sort
of my theory. So I'm pretty much all the way
out on Julian Edelman. Uh and and understandably, so it's
(11:47):
it's nothing against Edelman the player, right, because he was
fantastic for for a long time with the Patriots, but
he's getting older now, so and now old Tom Brady,
I agree with you. It's it's a tougher sell um
that being Julian Edelman, I don't know about the hundred,
you know, a hundred catches season. That's gonna be a
(12:09):
very very difficult sell, I think. And kill Harry is
definitely a past catcher that you want in this offense.
Maybe you can extend that list to some of their
their young tight ends that they drafted um this year.
I think that's a possibility as well. Um. Outside of that, Davis,
you know, do you want any part of Mohammed Sanu?
(12:30):
That's that's that's probably you don't want um, Devin ASIASI,
you don't want Matt Lacos, you don't want uh. Demir
Bird is theoretically like Julian Edelman's backup. You're not really
interested in him. It's just it's just not those Patriots
teams of years past where we can see so many
guys having an avenue of ceiling right there. Just it's
(12:52):
it seems like it's gonna be a ball control offense
and and not one where there's gonna be a ton
of fantasy points to go around. But we're gonna go
ahead and head into break here real quick on the
Daily Road To Hour on sports Gride TV. When we
get back, we're going to head away from the New
England Patriots and go in the direction of the Buffalo Bills,
discussing Josh Allen and his compatriots on the other side
(13:14):
of breaks You guys in a few moments. Sports grid
dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
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want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from break Here
(13:39):
on the Daily Road Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
David's Maddock Joint today by Chris parpet Checko, as we
continue our series of team previews for the NFL in
going through the a f C East. Today went through
Pachecos New England Patriots in our first segment, turning our
attention now to the Buffalo Bills in and what an
(14:00):
interesting team so last year they scored the twenty three
most points in the NFL, but limited opposing teams to
only two d and fifty nine points, which would second
of the thirty two teams in the NFL went ten
and six. Um, you know, I find myself mostly being
a Buffalo Bills pessimist. Pacheco, do you are you are
(14:21):
you feeling optimistic about them? Do you think you know
Josh Allen has more of a ceiling? Where are you
at with them kind of as a team? So I
think I actually think given what we spoke about with
the Patriots and and the fact that their quarterback room
this year is it's it's difficult to trust, uh, to
say the least, you can make a very solid argument
(14:42):
that the Bill should be the betting favorites to be
the division winners UH this year. That is not how
it's being bet right now. But they're like co favorites
to win the divisions. So both the Bills and the
Patriots are plus one thirty to win the a f
C East UH this year, which I think it's it's fair.
But if you told me that the Bills were the
(15:03):
outright favorites, UM, you know, I wouldn't say you you're
absolutely wrong. Are they gonna go ten and six this year? Again?
You know, Davis probably not. Um, It's it's possible they
can win the division nine and seven if the Pages
just don't have a good year, I think that's a
very solid possibility. Um So I am. I think I
(15:25):
am probably a little bit more optimistic about the Bills
this year, uh than you are, but it's probably not
by a whole lot. I just like the fact that
you know, they have a competent quarterback that can certainly run.
As far as the ceiling passing wise is concerned, I
don't think it's it's gonna be much better than what
he's performed at the NFL level already. But I think
(15:46):
they're their roster and especially the defense Davis is a
very difficult one, especially at home. Um, they are just
very tough to score against. And I don't think that's
going to change this year. Yeah, So if other teams
in this division are unable to you know, reach their
ceilings or or find uh you know, more heavy expectations,
(16:09):
so like, you know, let's say Sam Donald has trouble
again this year, Let's say you know, Ta is not
ready by the time that we think he should be
ready by. Like I could see the Bills not really
getting that much better, but actually still winning the division,
right Like, I like, I think it's actually pretty possible
that the Bills could win nine games. You know, Josh
(16:31):
Allen could have an almost even touchdown to interception ratio.
But thinking that the defense roughly stays the same, they're
able to kind of grind out some small edges get
lucky in in one touchdown games, which was a huge
part of their success. I I you know, this division
has a wide range of outcomes in terms of what
these teams could be. You know, Stidham could really submarine
(16:52):
the Patriots, or he could be fine, right, he could
be you know, kind of do what Brady did last
year and and to it could be great for the Dolphins.
Or he could not healthy and not ready. You know,
there's just a lot of different ways that it can
go for fantasy though, I don't love paying for Josh
Allen ceiling right now, But in one quarterback leagues, I
think you want to have a quarterback with rushing upside,
(17:14):
right Like, we just know that's a strategy that is
very beneficial in one quarterback fantasy leagues, And you know,
I really like Josh Allen in that context. I probably
you know, I would rather draft Dak or Kyler, but
Josh Allen in the eighth and ninth round. I mean,
I think those are acceptable places to target him. Yeah, certainly.
(17:36):
And I think, uh, double which is difficult to accomplish, right,
I said that with that caveat, but double digit rushing
touchdown upside there he could do. Yeah, I think it's there.
The first couple of years at the NFL level, eight
and nine rushing touchdowns. Um, I think he's you know,
he's knocking on the doors. Is he going to do it?
(17:58):
You know? Probably not. I I think, you know, probably six,
like six seven is probably better of a menium expectation.
You're not projecting that for Josh Allen this year, but
I think the upside certainly there. David so I I
couldn't agree with you more. It's it's difficult to pay
um for the upside, especially where he's being drafted right now.
But I think he's competent enough, and once you have
(18:20):
the rushing upside um, you know, things get better for
for them. And I and I also agree with you, uh,
and that the Balls don't have to have a great
season for them to win the division, And that was
my point earlier, and that they can just go down
and seven and if the Patriots just you know, stidum,
it doesn't end up working out. I think nine and
seven this year might take the a f c's pretty easily. Yeah,
(18:44):
which is you know, it feels it feels crazy to say,
but that is just kind of the That is just
kind of the way of the world right now. And
I mean, you know, the the Bills could use Josh
Allen like Cam Newton, where they're just like that, dude
is our goal line back. You know, we get down
on the two yard line, we are gonna call quarterback power.
We're gonna have Devin Singletarry and Zack Moss out there
(19:06):
ahead of him, blocking, trying to get him into the
end zone. And I mean that is that is an
efficient way, like quarterback rushing on the goal line actually
is an efficient way to use running. Like that's one
of the areas where we know that running actually adds
expected points as opposed to taking it away. Moving to
the running backs, really interesting dichotomy that we have with
(19:29):
these running backs. Devin Singletarry to me, Pacheco is really
getting overdrafted. He goes and sometimes in the back end
of the third round, middle of the fourth round. You know,
every once in a while in Sharper drafts, he'll go
in the fifth round. But I just have such a
hard time finding a ceiling for him because I don't
(19:49):
think the Bills are gonna pass enough for him to
get like seventy catches. Right. But also, as we were
just speaking about, Josh Allen is going to be the
guy who scores the rushing touchdowns, right, He is to
be the one who gets the ball a lot of
the time at the goal line. So how does Devin
Singletary access a ceiling this year? Well? Yeah, okay, so
(20:11):
in agreement with you that the reception I'm side is
going to be difficult. You know, seven and catches that
that sounds almost impossible, uh, in this offense quite frankly. Um,
last year for Devin Singletary, he caught you know, twenty
nine passes and that was with what frame boer around
and and some miss games too, and some miss games
as well. Um. The thing that you you do have
(20:33):
to like about Devin Singletary, and I don't know how
much of a believer you are in this Davis is
the five point one yards per carry. Um, you know,
how how well is that going to translate into year two?
I'm not really sure. I know, he scored, he rushed
for just two touchdowns, which is not great. I realize
what you're saying. Maybe Josh Allen is is used more
(20:56):
in the goal line and he ends up being you know,
the touchdown get her from that perspective, But you could
also argue that, you know, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss
just get a bigger role on the goal line as well.
So if that is the case, you know, maybe Singletary
has you know, eight hundred nine hundred rushing yard upside
(21:16):
with seven to eight touchdowns. It's not great. Um, you know,
maybe he would have to knock on the door of
double digit rushing uh rushing touchdown upside to to really
be worse than in drafts. I'm not really sure he
has that. So in agreement with you, it's it's difficult
for me to see the upside pay and offer him.
So on the converse, Zack Moss is probably going to
(21:39):
inherit that Frank Gore role and Frank were actually did
more so than Singletary get opportunities at the goal line
last season. Are we interested in taking the discount with
Zack Moss and thinking we know he's gonna have a role,
but there might even be upside that he just outplays
Devin Singletary and their roles switch. You know, Zack Moss
and Singletary pretty similar the players. Both of them played
(22:01):
at smaller schools. So I guess Utah was really highly
ranked last year. I mean, no one really believed it
and they didn't they no one seriously talked about them
for the College Football Playoff as a result of that.
But you know, if you told me Zack Moss end
of the year, a hundred and ninety carries, twenty catches,
eight touchdowns, like, yeah, I mean that's a ceiling projection,
(22:23):
but like it could happen. I I don't. I'm not
overly targeting this backfield, but I prefer Moss at his
price tag to Singletarry at his Uh And I can
disagree with you there. Um, if I have to choose
between both one of the two, it would be Zack Moss. Um. Yes,
he he hasn't had a single snap at the NFL level,
but this was a good running back at the collegiate level. Um,
(22:46):
you know, the Bills drafted him. I think they'd like him. Uh,
not sure it's to take Devin Singletarry's job out right,
I don't think you know, Moss has the three like,
I don't think he has a bell Cow upside right
a way, I think the upside is possible. Um, if
Singletary just absolutely sucks this year or just gets hurt,
(23:08):
I think that upside is there. But I'm in agreement
with you. It's all about price. Tag Moss has the
better one, so I tend to to just go with
him and drafts. So now getting down to their pass catchers,
they trade a first round pick for Stefon Diggs this offseason,
displaces John Brown, displaces Cole Beasley. I mean they and
(23:28):
they were. Cole Beasley scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.
I'm not sure anyone is really buying that long term
for him. But you know, a pretty a pretty interesting,
a pretty interesting group here because we just expect this
to be such a low completion offense, right Like, it's
it's really hard to talk ourselves into step digs. But
I guess you know, along those same lines, it's not
(23:50):
like the Vikings were airing the ball out and the
Billing should have a pretty narrow passing tree like Dig
should pretty comfortably lead them in targets. So our d
afters maybe overreacting a little bit to this trade, and
maybe they should be valuing Digs a little bit higher.
I'm not sure about valuing him higher. I think the
(24:10):
comparison that you made is is pretty perfect. Well, I'm mean,
actually looking at uh numbers here, I would guess the
Vikings and Bills offense were ran pretty similarly, uh as
far as they just don't air the ball a whole lot.
They try to run the ball as much as they can.
You know, Josh Allen uh is arguably a better you know,
rushing quarterback than passing quarterback. UH. So, I don't think
(24:35):
the teams are very different. I think Diggs is probably
valued right around where he should be. Um. I think
he's going to be good. I think he's going to
be a top target in this offense, no doubt about it.
And I think the Bills actually needed a wide receiver
of this caliber. So I think they won that trade
and I'm excited to see how that one works out.
(24:55):
Do we have any interest in John Brown as you know,
secondary wide receiver or Dawson Knox as a potential breakout
tight end? Oh man, Um, I would say a little
bit of interest on both. I'm not sure how sustainable
it is, Like, I don't know how sustainable as offenses
for three of these guys ahead Davis, I would think
(25:19):
one of them is just just gonna bomb and not
give you a lot of value. But I think there's
some interest on my end for both of those guys. Yeah,
I think that, um, I think that is probably fair.
You know, offenses like this, if the Bills end up,
you know, being a better team, scoring more points, performing
more admirably in I don't know if that will actually
(25:39):
make their offense all that much better for fantasy, because
I don't think they're gonna play with a super fast pace.
I don't think that Josh Allen is going to get
more accurate. You know, the ways that this team improves
is probably likely through efficiency. So that means you know,
that means you know, just likely playing better near the
goal line, kicking less field goals, going for it, war
(26:00):
on fourth down, and maybe they do draw up some
stuff to make things a little bit easier for Josh Allen. Right,
you know, maybe maybe they find a way for some
easier completions and uh and things like that. But we
are going to go ahead and head into break here
on the Daily road To Hour on sports Gride TV.
When we return, we're gonna continue our series of a
(26:20):
f C East team previews and go to the Miami
Dolphins new quarterback, new running backs, UH and and just
see how we think that this team is going to
play out for fantasy in sports grid dot Com, Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our team
covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
(26:43):
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. M
hm hm, this is sports Dream. Hello everyone, and welcome
(27:09):
back from break here on the Daily Roado Hour on
Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Christopher
Pacheco as we continue our series of and previews, division
by division, team by team. Now today we are going
through the a f C East. We've gone through the
Patriots and the Bills, now turning our attention to the
Miami Dolphins, who have a new quarterback to UH drafted
(27:33):
at from the University of Alabama. Now we don't know
because you know, rookie mini camps are not happening because
we don't have uh, you know, we just don't have
information on what what these teams are up to. We
don't know how healthy to a is. You know, we
just we don't know, uh, you know, we we don't
know if he's going to be ready to start the season.
(27:53):
We don't know if he's going to start in we gate.
My hope, Pacheco, is that we get to uh in
like you know, we five or or something like that.
But maybe there's a scenario where Tua is ready to
go for week one. If let's let's say, in this
hypothetical Tua is ready to play in week one, where
would we value him amongst fantasy quarterbacks? Oh man, if
(28:17):
if he's if he's ready by week one, which by
the way, I think is a very long like big,
big time long shot. Um. I think the more realistic
scenario is that he's ready for like the second half
of the season, per se, not not even week five.
I think second half of the season makes a little
bit more sense. Um. And honestly, Davis, here's here's the thing.
(28:38):
I think if the Dolphins are doing well with Ryan
Fitzpatrick and they certainly kind of started to turn things
around later in the season, last year with Fitzpatrick under center,
they might just ride him and give two of the
year off. There's really no reason for them to push
it with two in year one, So I'm not I'm
not super optimistic that will say two up in one
(29:03):
um for this season. But I think if he's if
he's in there, given his rushing upside and given his
his collegiate talent, he would have to be like a
top say a top probably top four, top top twelve
quarterback like right away almost it really it really would
just depend on how much he ran. But I think
(29:23):
there's enough context in this offense to be like, wow,
things are things are looking up for the Dolphins, you
know whoever, and Fitzpatrick might even have some value, you know,
Mike Kisiki at tight end, DeVante Parker at wide receiver,
Preston Williams coming back from his a c L tear. Like,
I think there's a lot to be excited about as
(29:43):
as a member of this team. I mean, Fitzpatrick probably
not a guy we are drafting in our uh seasonal
fantasy leagues, you know, like like and especially in bestball,
where if he is uh not on the roster, you
know you're gonna be feeling or if he on your roster,
you just don't know how long you're gonna be able
to count on points from him, So you're you're probably
(30:06):
not feeling great about best ball. But like week one
DFS like come on, like we like we'll probably play him, right,
He'll probably be in the mix because he'll be near
the dead minimum on fan duel and he'll be uh,
he'll be a good stacking target. And I think the
same thing is true of Tuah for Daily Fantasy is
like I'm whatever his prices in his first start, I
feel like I'm gonna want to have exposure him because
(30:28):
I think he really has some crazy, you know, uncapped upside. Yeah,
I think I think he has loads of upside whenever
we do see him, uh, and the whole business that
he they don't they don't push him are and he
comes in and can be healthy because that that's the
main thing. If he's gonna be out there with with
this hip thing, his rushing upside is going to be capped.
(30:49):
And I do want to Davis, you know how big
of a rusher will he be at the NFL level,
Because at the at the collegiate level, he certainly was
he had that rushing upside. He did get hurt, you know,
and it's a hit, and that that changes it for sure, right,
So that that changes it for sure. And I wonder
how much of the Dolphins want to push him. Um
(31:09):
But even then, if he just has rushing upside near
the goal line, that might be enough. And it's all
about just grabbing those rushing touchdowns. And I think that
is still a very legitimate possibility for two. Yeah, I
think that is. I think that is definitely the case.
So pretty much a brand new running back room for
the Miami Dolphins. They still have our layered in savior.
(31:31):
Patrick Layard is going to be third downs and should
play on special teams a ton for the Dolphins. But
I don't think that we will see hardly any of
calin Balage this year. I don't think we will see
much Miles Gascon this year. So they signed Jordan Howard
in free agency. They trade a fifth round draft pick
for Matt Brita. Uh, you know, I think that Brita
(31:54):
makes a pretty great late round running back target. You know,
I think getting him in the eighth, ninth, ten ound,
he's got a ton of upside. He actually was the
fastest ball carrier in the NFL last year per NFL
next Gen Stats, reaching a top speed of twenty two
point three miles per hour. He has a ton of
upside in games where he gets, you know, fifteen or
(32:14):
more touches. So I'm I'm a I'm pretty in on
Matt Breda on his price tag. You know, I kind
of think that coaches love guys like Jordan Howard who
come in. They do all the right things. You know,
Jordan Howard knows how to be an NFL running back,
but he just has no upside. Right, Like, even if
even if Jordan Howard wins this job outright Pacheco, he
(32:36):
probably you know, maybe he catches twenty passes, maybe he
scores eight touchdowns, but both of those even seem optimistic
to me. Really, Yeah, I'm gonna agreement with you. Like,
I don't think Jordan Howard is is bad. I just don't.
I don't see the upside either. Uh. And I really
like Matt breed up so uh for his career. Uh,
(32:59):
he as three and eighty one carries to his name,
and he's he's average five yards per carry. Uh. I
don't know, again, Davis, I don't know how much of
a believer you are on that statistic UH year to
year and how it translates. I think there is Personally,
I think there's a decent amount of varyings for that
(33:20):
to statistics. So I'm not like a huge believer in it.
But when I start to take a look at the
bigger sample for a career, then I start to believe
in a little bit more. And I think bred up.
He hasn't had a bell cow role at the NFL yet, um,
but I think his upside is better than Howard. I
think he's a better pass catcher and I think he's
(33:41):
just more efficient. So even if Howard ends up winning
this job, I still think Breta could come in and
and win it at some point, like like compete for
that starting role at some point and you can get
him late. So I just think it makes all the
sense in the world that he would be the top
target UH as a running back to the Miami Dolphins
than than even Jordan Howard. Yeah, I think I think
(34:04):
that's definitely true. Like Breeda just has way more uh Like,
he has way more ways in which he can have
a really good season, right, Like he could become the
primary passing down back and catch a lot of checkdowns, right, Like,
he could just be the better pass blocking back and
earn more snaps that way. He I think the the
one way where Howard has like a really tremendous season
(34:27):
that you get mad that you're not owning in your
league's would be, you know, it would basically be that
he is able to earn a monopoly of the goal
line work and the Dolphins are a lot better than
we expect, and as a result of being a lot
better than we expect, there are more touchdowns available, and
with all those touchdowns available, you know, he basically just
kind of goes nuts. That's really sort of the only
(34:49):
way I think Jordan Howard can get there. And and
I just don't really target guys like that who who
have very low floor like I think Howard has both
a low floor and a low ceiling. Like I think
he could just get straight up bench and not be
a part of this team's running back rotation at all.
And I don't like Breed is going to be involved
pretty much no matter what. Yeah, it's a good point
(35:12):
that you bring up, because I think Brita is gonna
be at least in there for passing down to where
I don't see that scenario happening for Jordan Howard. So
if he does his outright stink and he does so
right away, uh, he could have just end up not
having any sort of value uh and this offense. So
to to that point earlier, I think Brita is certainly
(35:32):
the guy that you want to target. Uh. And if
it's only just because he's gonna have a passing down role,
I think that's at least worth targeting in this offense
because I think things are certainly looking up, especially when
Tah is going to be the quarterback at some point.
I think the running backs are gonna benefit from that
at some point as well. Alright, So digging into the
(35:54):
pass catchers, are you a DeVante Parker or a Preston
Williams guy? I am a DeVante Parker guy. Okay, let's
break it down. Let's break it down. I mean Devonte Parker,
the rare fifth year breakout in the NFL. Don't don't
get those that come along very often. But DeVante Parker,
you know, first wide receiver, uh, first two PPR point
(36:17):
season of his career last year. Uh, And and he
was great, you know, I'm not not trying to throw
any shade on him, but are you worried at all that? Um?
After never having more than seven hundred and forty four
receiving yards in a season, he finally breaks out yards
nine touchdowns in sixteen games. I mean, are you Are
you worried at all? Um? I think the worry for
(36:40):
me at this point would be like, perhaps twelve yards
is too steep, especially if you're projecting that. I don't
think you can, Um. But that's about it for me. Davids,
like I think his talent um is legit. I think
he broke out late for a reason. I really didn't
think that those often seems that he was a part
(37:01):
of We're any good. I think last year's Dolphins teams
started to be started to be a bit more competent,
and I think, I believe it or not, Fitzpatrick and
to a profile a little bit similarly to me, and
that they just they just throw the ball wherever, they
just air it out um, and they're not really worried
about interceptions per se, which is good for the receivers.
(37:22):
Even in tight coverage, they're going to try and throw
them the ball. So I think Parker is going to
be the top target, whether fifth Patrick is under center
or whether it was under center. And I think his
his his talent is very legitimate. Yeah, I think that
is I think that is true. I prefer drafting Parker.
I will take Williams on occasion. Um, the problem you
(37:46):
run into with Williams is he's an undrafted free agent
and and those guys without draft capital, you know, they
just don't always end up getting used, even if they
are productive as rookies. I think a guy you and
I are both going to agree on, though, Mike Kasiki
as one of your late round tight end targets. You know,
you take Mike Kasicki in the ninth, tenth, eleventh round.
And I mean last year he really saw so much
(38:10):
volume after Preston Williams got injured. If you go look
at his game logs last year, you know since week eight, six, six, six, seven, seven, five, eight,
twelve and seven were his per game target numbers. I mean,
he was a real part of this offense last year certainly,
and you have to believe that he's gonna be uh
(38:33):
he was going to continue to be a big part
of this offense moving forward as well. I think so Davis.
I think the concern level for Gasicki is probably on
the lower end as well. Like I still think he
could replicate what he did, uh last year where he
taught you know, fifty one balls and and scored five touchdowns.
(38:56):
Like I said, I think that's that's very replicable. I
think he can do it again this year. UM, I'm
not as worried about him. I think the worry honestly
is that, um, he doesn't go late and people start
to kind of nab them earlier. UM. I don't think
that that's going to happen. So if you can grab
him late, I would go for it. It's all about
price act. So if he started going earlier, UM I
(39:18):
would I would start getting to concerned at that point. Yeah,
all right, everyone, We're gonna go ahead and head into
our final break here on the daily Road to Hour
on sports Grid TV. When we get back saving the
Least for last with the New York Jets of the AMP,
sports grid dot Com, Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:41):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back for
our final segment here on the Daily Road to our
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis and joined by Christopher Pacheco,
continuing our series of team by team breakdowns for the
(40:06):
NFL season going through the a f C East. Today,
we've done the Patriots, We've done the Bills, we have
done the Miami Dolphins, and now we are sitting here
with the last team left, the New York Football Jets
and Pacheco. You know, I want to believe that Sam
Donald has it in him to be better. I do.
(40:27):
I I am an optimist. I I want to think
that he has a ceiling yet to be displayed. And
you know, to be fair to him, he got better
last season as the season went on, you know, he
was he had uh some great games against the Oakland Raiders,
had a good game, you know, like there were there
(40:48):
were games against the Giants and against Washington that were
interspersed in there. But pretty much every time he played
against a good team, things went south really quickly. So
you know, what are we what are we feeling about
Sam Donald? Do you think he has a ceiling? Left.
I think so, Um, you know he's still he's still young. Uh.
(41:09):
This is going to be his age twenty three UH season.
He was certainly good in college. We haven't really seen
him be that good at the NFL level. It seems like,
you know, he's always throwing a bunch of interceptions. Uh
and to your points, specifically when he goes up against
good teams, just seems like he disappears. Um, we'll see
(41:30):
you know of an improvement on offensive line that certainly
could help him past catchers in his offense. You know, David,
they had a brushop Herriman. Um, they're gonna have Herndon
back the tight end. I think that that could help him. Um.
Things are just not looking very good for the Jets,
and in fact, I thought, you know, them being a
little bit higher favorites to win the division on on
(41:53):
the FanDuel Sports but betting page, Uh their plus seven
hundred to one a division whereas the Dolphins a plus
seven fifty. I think you can easily flip those and
I would believe you because I think the Jets realistically
probably have the worst roster uh in in this division.
The offense is just very mad and the defense also
(42:15):
is kind of mad as well. So um, it's gonna
take a lot for them. It's gonna take a lot
of things to go wrong with the other UH teams
in this division for the Jets to have a shot
um this year. And also Davis, I would say part
of the problem with Donald uh is that a quarter
of his games are spent, you know, playing against the
(42:36):
Patriots and the Bills defense, which are really it's really
really difficult to to accumulate fantasy points against those defenses. Yeah,
I mean there they are. Like you can think whatever
you want about the Patriots offense, you can think whatever
you want about the Bills offense. The strength of those
teams is on their defenses. And by the way, the
Dolphins sign Um Byron Jones in free agency, they made
(43:00):
improvements to their defense, so you know, wouldn't wouldn't be
surprising to me if they have an improved defensive unit
this year as well. So you know, I think, uh,
I think there are reasons to be concerned about the
Indivision opponents for sure. So if I wanted to be
optimistic on Sam Donald Um, this is what I would say.
First off, I would say he is still younger than
(43:22):
Joe Burrow right like he is he is now as
we are speaking now, Um, he is twenty three years
old and eighteen days, so he just turned twenty three.
Go back and look at his college stats as a
red shirt freshman, so a nineteen year old in the
pack twelve, UM, he threw four sixty seven percent completion
(43:44):
over three thousand yards at nine yards per adjusted attempt,
thirty one touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Now, the interceptions became
more of a problem in his sophomore season at USC,
but there are still things you can point to in
his profile to be like, you know what, Uh, this
guy probably he's got more upside than just looking at
(44:04):
his raw numbers in the NFL right now. Basically it's
kind of what I think. Certainly, Yeah, you can't look
at his NFL numbers and be like, oh, yeah, there's
certainly gonna be upside here, because that's not what those
numbers point to. I think you have to dig a
little bit deeper. So as you as you mentioned, you
have to dig into the college numbers and the fact
that he's young, uh, and in college he he was
(44:26):
very good and looked like he had a lot of
armed talent level Uh, so, I think it's it's still there, Davis.
The real issue is the team. I wonder if the
team can can put something together for him where we
do see the upside, because it's very possible that Donald
is just it's just kind of wasted in the Jets
(44:46):
because they never give him good pass catchers and they
never give him a good offensive line. And honestly, if
a quarterback doesn't have a good offensive line or a
good pass catchers, they tend to not be very good quarterbacks.
So it really wouldn't surprise me if that's the case
for Donald. Yeah. Um, and so a name we haven't
even mentioned yet, but a big, big problem also could
(45:06):
be maybe Adam Gates just isn't a very good coach,
and maybe Adam Gaze being involved with the New York Jets.
I mean, if you go look at Adam Gaze's track record,
his one good offense was when Peyton Manning was his quarterback, right,
And you know, it's it's pretty easy to figure things
out when Peyton Manning is your quarterback and fixing everything
at the line of scrimmage. So maybe there is like
(45:27):
a second part of Sam Donald's career. So maybe Gates
gets fired and Donald is still bad this year, but
like I I still kind of like him. I still
kind of think that they're like you know, you know,
Donald kind of reminds me of kind of reminds me
of um Brett Farve. Actually, it's like kind of the
or or maybe like maybe like a little Tony Romo
(45:48):
Ask Actually is kind of the way I think about him.
So kids upside, his upside that is not not who
he is now, but like his upside, So you think
he's he's uh, he's like a gun slinger, right slinger,
Like he doesn't care about the interceptions. He's just gonna
air it out. Um. The thing is, so I think
(46:10):
Donald what he's not gonna end up being right. It
is like a pay Banning or Tom Brady or he
hands up right, like no chance of that sort of
upside being realized because he's just not that type of
quarterback to make the other receivers that are completely relevant better,
So that that is just completely out the window. I
think I agree with you and that he needs a
(46:31):
better coach, He needs a better support system for us
to see that upside being realized. It looks like this
year it might not be the case because we still
have Adam Gays, but we still have this offense, and
I just I really questioned it because a lot of
the names are just kind of gross. And also the
running back room, which we're going to dive in into
any second now, is not great either. So Donald, he
(46:54):
needs more support and I'm not sure he hasn't this year. Well,
you know the reason we spend so much time talking
about the back for this team is if Donald hits
and Donald plays like a guy, a quarterback drafted with
the you know, a top five pick in the NFL draft,
things are gonna be easier for levy On Bell, Things
are gonna be easier for Brashon. Perriman thinks you're gonna
be easier for Denzel Mims, for Chris Herndon. Like I
(47:16):
think it really does all come down to Donald, I
will say right now, but Checko just no interest in
Levan Bell. Haven't taken him once. You know, I've done
fifty however many drafts I am I am not taking.
I am just not taking him. Like last year he
had zero runs of twenty yards or more. So, just like,
(47:37):
what what's the point? What are we what are we
hoping to accomplish by drafting Levy on Bell. Well, honestly,
I think the worst part about Bell is not not
only is he just getting older, um and he's not
very old yet, but he has a lot of threat
on those tires. I think the biggest concern it's the
price tag Davis for us. As long as we've been
(47:58):
doing as long as we've been doing this shows he's
been like a top forty player, and I just I
don't know what people are seeing. I don't think he's
a top sixty player. I just you can't draft him
where he's being drafted right now. You have to wait
for the price at to tank more and more, and
I'm not sure we ever get to that level. So
I'm I'm right there with you. I have no interest
(48:19):
in Levyon Bell, especially when the Jets went out there
and drafted and running back and also signed Frank Gore.
I just there's no interest for me Levyan Bell this year.
It's all signs points to them trying to divvy up
the work instead of making Bell the Bell Cow, which
has to be a really big concern for someone that's
(48:40):
being dropped into the top forty. I mean, the only
reason he could be considered to draft. Where he's going
now should basically be because he might get three touches.
But I just I don't even know if I don't
even really know if the Jets want to do that.
So you know they have all they just have all
of these other guy is on the roster. So right
(49:01):
now you know they're running back room. They signed Frank Gore,
they have Trent and Cannon. Still they draft uh La,
Michael p Ryan, Josh Adams is still on the roster,
and and you know, I think they I think they
don't want to use the Levian on passing downs as
much as you know the the Dealers used him. And
I just I basically I don't see the upside. And
I think his floor, his floor could just be disgusting,
(49:23):
right His floor could be something like you know, two
and thirty carries but only like twenty, like only like
twenty catches or something like. I just I just don't
like it. I just I'm not in on him at all.
Do you remember when when Levian had like like eighty
receptions as his upside, like he had that in his profile.
(49:46):
In fact, last year he caught sixty six passes. I
don't honestly don't remember any of them, so so there
goes that. But like to your point, I think with
them adding these running backs into the room, like it
doesn't see like they really want him to be in
their third downs. And if you remove the past, like
the catching upside for lebian Bell, it starts to get
(50:06):
really really grows. So I just I don't want any
part of him where he's being drafted, and I don't
think that the price tag is gonna take enough where
I start to get interested. Yeah, I I certainly, I
certainly agree with that line of thought where I just
I just don't really see the upside and I don't
really see the floor that others are are seeing as
well as far as their wide receivers go. You know,
(50:30):
I I think that the guy that I am I
think that the guy that I am interested in is Perriman.
I know a lot of people like Jamison Crowder, and
I see what they're there. I see what the thought
is with Jamison Crowder, where you know, maybe he just
is getting every single slot snap, getting every single slot target.
(50:52):
Maybe Sam Donald is you know, a checkdown king. I
think that I think I believe Crowder had a nineteen
target game last season, like they just they really were
using him like crazy out of that position. But our
seventeen target game, by the way, that was in Week one,
seventeen targets fourteen receptions, but only for nine nine yards.
And that's kind of what you get with Crowder, like
(51:13):
just the ultimate no ceiling, safe floor pick. I just
I'm not interested. Um. Perriman though, I think does have
a little bit more of a ceiling, you know, down
the field. Yeah, Perriman does have a bigger ceiling, especially
with what we saw him do in Tampa Bay towards
the end of the season, where where a lot of
their guys started getting hurt on the receiving room and
(51:35):
Perraman really stepped up became a legitimate downfield threat for
that team. I think something similar can happen uh in
this offense. Though it seems like he has a very
similar quarterback to someone like Jameis Winston, because I think
Donald certainly airs it out and doesn't really care about
the interceptions. Um, so I am in agreement with you there.
(51:55):
I think Chris Herndon as a late round tight end,
Davis as someone that I can kind of buy. I'm
not sure what do you think of him? But I
was impressed by his kind of his first year at
the NFL level. Didn't do anything crazy, but you know,
caught thirty nine balls and and generated five receiving yards.
I think something like that or a little bit better
(52:17):
could be in the equation for the young tight end.
And I have interest because of the price tag as well. Yeah,
we get some post hype sleeper action from Herndon. He
might end up being the best jet for fantasy that
uh that there is So everyone, Thank you very much
for listening and watching to the Daily Roado Hour on
Sports Grade TV. This has been Davis Maddick and Christopher
Pacheco continuing our series of NFL team previews going all
(52:40):
around the NFL. We will be continuing this series tomorrow
and for the rest of the week, getting you all
upstate on every team in the NFL. Sports Gride dot
Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(53:02):
Want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
dot Com MHM
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily road Our here on Sports
Grade TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined today by Christopher Checko,
continuing our series on the program in which we are
going through all of the NFL team's division by division,
position by position, and today we are shifting our attention
to the a f C East, a division that is
actually gonna be interesting, I think from a gambling perspective,
(00:46):
from a fantasy perspective. You know, we have the ascending
Buffalo Bills, the maybe descending New England Patriots to uh
down in Miami. Maybe Donald doesn't get the cooties this year,
you know, doesn't doesn't get the kissing to ease this year,
and things go better in New York. But Checko, we
will start with your New England Patriots. So just let's
(01:07):
just let's just start here. Are you feeling optimistic or
pessimistic about the New England Patriots this year as a fan? Um? So,
as a fan, I feel optimistic that this team could
still pull off, say a wild card or be a
(01:27):
division winner. Uh. Again, I think the a FC East
is it's going to be tougher for the foreseeable future.
Now that the Dolphins have what I think is a
very legitimate quarterback. Uh and to up, though this is
going to be his first year, we don't know how
much run he's going to get. Obviously, the Buffalo Bills
(01:47):
feels like year to year they always have a really
strong defense. Maybe offensively, Uh, they shift you know, to
a new gear and get even better. Um. So the
competition Davis is certainly starting to to spice up. Um.
But for this year, I feel decently optimistic. But obviously,
you know, the one concern that is in every Patriots
(02:09):
fan has to be is the quarterback room and specifically
who is going to be the starter? Uh Jared Sidham. Uh,
you know, Davis, there's just it's not convincing enough that
he is going to be a legitimate, uh starting quarterback
at the NFL level. Uh. This is a quarterback that
in college never threw for more than nineteen passing touchdowns. Uh.
(02:33):
And he also never threw for more than thirty two yards. Uh.
He played for Auburn, so he played in the SEC.
You know, the competition is it should it's his numbers
should have been better, uh than than what they were.
And so that is my primary concern. Can a college
quarterback like this, who did not impress at all at
(02:54):
the at the collegiate level, could he go into the
NFL and be a legitimate starting quarterback. I'm just not sure. Yeah,
I think that is legitimate for sure. Um, you know,
I guess it is worth noting he was a little
bit of a runner at at Auburn and actually um
thirty six rushing attempts in uh not not very many
(03:14):
games for uh the Baylor Bears because he was actually
a transfer in he played for the Bailor Bears, appeared
in ten games, didn't start all of those. So are
are you thinking, as as a Patriots observer, like he
pretty clearly is going to be the starter over Brian Hoyer, Like,
is there is there any chance that you think Hoyer, like,
(03:35):
you know, let's say Stidham just sucks out loud through
three or four games. Do you think there's a chance
that Belichick turns things over to Hoyer at any point? No,
I don't. I don't view that as an option simply
because I think Horrier is there probably as like like
a super emergency like say he say Stidham gets hurt
(03:56):
or something that maybe Horio would get some red. Put
I don't think Warriors in a position to to really
be a starting quarterback at the NFL level. And so,
you know, David, you bring up a really good point
of what if Stadham is really bad for the first
few games, I think the Patriots would kind of just
be toast if he's not able to improve. And that's
the thing. It puts a lot of pressure on the
(04:17):
young quarterback to to go out there and succeed right
away when he hasn't really gotten a lot of reps
at the NFL level. I believe he had like I
don't know, four Pa came in. He came in and
threw either a pick six or just a regular interception
in the game where Brady was trying to rest, and
Belichick brought Brady back in, and so you know this
(04:38):
this offseason is going to be very different because of
the COVID nineteen situation, how offen speed can he get
up to? You know what? Things a lot of concerning
when it comes to the quarterback room after do England
Patriots this year? Yeah, I think those things are reasonable.
Do we think there is again any chance that Cam
Newton ends up signing as a member of the Patriots
(04:59):
or do you think at time is is mostly past us? Now?
I mean, who's this? Okay? So I think there's still
a chance. Um, Like, what if what if the Sidhama
experience just doesn't work out and we figure that out
very quickly? Um, and and Cam is still out of
the market, Like why not? I guess it would be
(05:20):
a matter of maybe he would just be too expensive
for their taste. Um, And that's it. I don't see
any other reason, because the need is clearly there. I
don't think Sidhama is going to be very good. But
maybe if he's just serviceable enough Davis, uh, maybe doing
them can run the ball enough where he's just like
he's just like a Ryan Tannehill type where he's just
(05:41):
like throwing passes and play action or something like that,
maybe he'd be like better in those situations. I'm just
not sure. Yeah, I think that could be the case.
I mean, I want them, I want them to sign Cam.
I I don't think that they will, but you know whatever,
you know, good for good for them, They'll they'll do
They'll do the Patriots way. So turning our attention to
(06:03):
the running back room, Sony Michelle, it is now been
reported has another offseason lower body surgery. You know, he
likely is going to be back by week one whenever
that's uh that does take place, you know, assuming that
Week one happens. But do we think we see more
of a role for Damian Harris this year? Is James White,
(06:23):
who really has been, you know, the consistent fantasy guy
for the Patriots over the last few years. You know,
I think there's certainly a chance that with Tom Brady
leaving that role that always existed for James White, that
you know that that might be out the door. Right
we we might not see that role exists with those
short passes for the running back. So you know that
(06:44):
kind of the guy that I'm betting on here from
a season long fantasy perspective is actually Damian Harris. You know,
you can get him fifteen sixteen seventeen round no one,
No one really on him. I I actually really like him.
I also like Damian Harris quite a bit. So the
running back room for the Patriots this year, it's looked
(07:04):
it's looking to be Sony Michelle when you mentioned had
offseason surgery. Brandon Bolden is going to be back, but
he he's just a vet. Um. He mostly does special
teams at this point in his career. Rex Birkhead is
back as well, uh and, and then Damian Harris, uh
and and James White. So I am mostly in agreement
(07:25):
with you. I think that the guy to buy here
is the youngster Damien Harris. I think, you know, Michelle,
with that off seats and surgery and just the numbers
that he's put up at the NFL level from a
from an efficiency perspective really hasn't been great. Um. So
I'm hoping that the Patriots has turned the page to
Damien Harris. Uh And. I think you know, Rex Burkhead
(07:47):
is someone to keep an eye on as well, again
in another vet, but you know, when on the field,
he he could be productive, tends to be productive. That
the biggest if is if he can stay on the
field because most of the time, he's just hurt. Um.
So from a fantasy perspective, that is tough. I think
the best bet here is David Harris. I think James White, uh,
it's gonna be a tougher sell without Brady. I think
(08:09):
the Patriots need to figure out a way, um to
not give away what they're going to do offensively to
the opponents. Because once Sony Michelle is in on the field,
you know he's not going to catch passes. Once James
White is on the field, you know it's it's mostly
gonna be a passing play. So they need to get
a little bit more creative with that. And I think
with Damian Harris in there that they might be able
(08:32):
to do that. Yeah. So I think, yeah, the reason
why you want Damian Harris is you don't you don't
want to broadcast what you're doing as much. And theoretically
you draft Damian Harris to be the kind of like
the souped up version of uh, you know, rex burg Head,
where he can play on goal line packages, he can
catch some passes, he can pass block. I think the
(08:53):
problem you run into with Patriots running backs now and
this is even true more than in years past, where
people will be like, oh know, you can never figure
out which Patriots running back is going to be the guy.
You kind of always just draft the cheapest one. Well,
now there's a very real scenario where they play all
four of these guys. So Damian Harris plays a little,
Rex Birkehead plays a little Sony Michelle handles a lot
(09:15):
of the goal line work, James White handles, you know,
some of those obvious passing situations, and you know, I
I want there to be an avenue to Damian Harris breakout.
But it's not like they're gonna stop playing Sony Michelle. Like,
I don't really think they would flat out bench Sony Michelle,
but maybe they would. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe uh they
would in fact just straight up bench Sony Michelle if
(09:38):
he plays his poorly in twenty as he did in
t you know, outside of that Jets game, it was
a pretty brutally year for Sony Michelle. It was it
felt like a very brutal year for Sony Michelle. Maybe
he was hurt. Uh, I don't know, Davis. At this point,
I'm just I'm just kind of banking on that the
fact that he just he hasn't been very good because
he's been heard. But um, at this point, you know, realistically,
(10:01):
the Patriots need to find their identity offensively. They couldn't
really even do it with Tom Brady last year, which
is kind of scary. I know Tom Brady is not
the same quarterback he used to be, UM, but I
think this year it's kind of it's kind of a
tougher sell for the Patriots to to be better offensively
given their quarterback room and given that the running back room,
(10:21):
it certainly looks okay, but it's it's not convincing and
as you mentioned, uh, it could be split into four guys.
That's never one of what you want to hear from
fantasy perspectives for sure. So turning our attention now to
the past catchers, the only Patriots pass catcher that I
find myself drafting, Well, first of all, do you have
(10:43):
a guess of all the guys who are primarily sketchers,
who who do you think I was interested in targeting
in drafts? In so my guess is h and kill Harry,
and kill Harry. That's the guy. I mean. Uh, first
round pick was not the first wide received drafted. That
was Marquis Brown last year but and Keel Harry kind
(11:04):
of profiles as the sort of guy who is going
to start off slowly because he you know, he was
he went to a pack twelve school, so he wasn't
in the SEC against top corners, wasn't in the big
twelve against guys who are going to the NFL. I mean,
people make fun of big twelve defenses, but you know
there there's still NFL athletes there. And he got injured
as a rookie, but was able to score two touchdowns
(11:26):
on I think he had twenty four targets as a rookie.
And if if any of these guys is going to
break out and provide league winning upside, it's gonna be
in Kiel Harry. You know, Edelman is not gonna Edelman
is just not going to have that same you know,
hundred catch up side in this offense. That's that's sort
of my theory. So I'm pretty much all the way
out on Julian Edelman. Uh and and understandably, so it's
(11:47):
it's nothing against Edelman the player, right, because he was
fantastic for for a long time with the Patriots, but
he's getting older now, so and now old Tom Brady,
I agree with you. It's it's a tougher sell um
that being Julian Edelman, I don't know about the hundred,
you know, a hundred catches season. That's gonna be a
(12:09):
very very difficult sell, I think. And kill Harry is
definitely a past catcher that you want in this offense.
Maybe you can extend that list to some of their
their young tight ends that they drafted um this year.
I think that's a possibility as well. Um. Outside of that, Davis,
you know, do you want any part of Mohammed Sanu?
(12:30):
That's that's that's probably you don't want um, Devin ASIASI,
you don't want Matt Lacos, you don't want uh. Demir
Bird is theoretically like Julian Edelman's backup. You're not really
interested in him. It's just it's just not those Patriots
teams of years past where we can see so many
guys having an avenue of ceiling right there. Just it's
(12:52):
it seems like it's gonna be a ball control offense
and and not one where there's gonna be a ton
of fantasy points to go around. But we're gonna go
ahead and head into break here real quick on the
Daily Road To Hour on sports Gride TV. When we
get back, we're going to head away from the New
England Patriots and go in the direction of the Buffalo Bills,
discussing Josh Allen and his compatriots on the other side
(13:14):
of breaks You guys in a few moments. Sports grid
dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from break Here
(13:39):
on the Daily Road Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
David's Maddock Joint today by Chris parpet Checko, as we
continue our series of team previews for the NFL in
going through the a f C East. Today went through
Pachecos New England Patriots in our first segment, turning our
attention now to the Buffalo Bills in and what an
(14:00):
interesting team so last year they scored the twenty three
most points in the NFL, but limited opposing teams to
only two d and fifty nine points, which would second
of the thirty two teams in the NFL went ten
and six. Um, you know, I find myself mostly being
a Buffalo Bills pessimist. Pacheco, do you are you are
(14:21):
you feeling optimistic about them? Do you think you know
Josh Allen has more of a ceiling? Where are you
at with them kind of as a team? So I
think I actually think given what we spoke about with
the Patriots and and the fact that their quarterback room
this year is it's it's difficult to trust, uh, to
say the least, you can make a very solid argument
(14:42):
that the Bill should be the betting favorites to be
the division winners UH this year. That is not how
it's being bet right now. But they're like co favorites
to win the divisions. So both the Bills and the
Patriots are plus one thirty to win the a f
C East UH this year, which I think it's it's fair.
But if you told me that the Bills were the
(15:03):
outright favorites, UM, you know, I wouldn't say you you're
absolutely wrong. Are they gonna go ten and six this year? Again?
You know, Davis probably not. Um, It's it's possible they
can win the division nine and seven if the Pages
just don't have a good year, I think that's a
very solid possibility. Um So I am. I think I
(15:25):
am probably a little bit more optimistic about the Bills
this year, uh than you are, but it's probably not
by a whole lot. I just like the fact that
you know, they have a competent quarterback that can certainly run.
As far as the ceiling passing wise is concerned, I
don't think it's it's gonna be much better than what
he's performed at the NFL level already. But I think
(15:46):
they're their roster and especially the defense Davis is a
very difficult one, especially at home. Um, they are just
very tough to score against. And I don't think that's
going to change this year. Yeah, So if other teams
in this division are unable to you know, reach their
ceilings or or find uh you know, more heavy expectations,
(16:09):
so like, you know, let's say Sam Donald has trouble
again this year, Let's say you know, Ta is not
ready by the time that we think he should be
ready by. Like I could see the Bills not really
getting that much better, but actually still winning the division,
right Like, I like, I think it's actually pretty possible
that the Bills could win nine games. You know, Josh
(16:31):
Allen could have an almost even touchdown to interception ratio.
But thinking that the defense roughly stays the same, they're
able to kind of grind out some small edges get
lucky in in one touchdown games, which was a huge
part of their success. I I you know, this division
has a wide range of outcomes in terms of what
these teams could be. You know, Stidham could really submarine
(16:52):
the Patriots, or he could be fine, right, he could
be you know, kind of do what Brady did last
year and and to it could be great for the Dolphins.
Or he could not healthy and not ready. You know,
there's just a lot of different ways that it can
go for fantasy though, I don't love paying for Josh
Allen ceiling right now, But in one quarterback leagues, I
think you want to have a quarterback with rushing upside,
(17:14):
right Like, we just know that's a strategy that is
very beneficial in one quarterback fantasy leagues, And you know,
I really like Josh Allen in that context. I probably
you know, I would rather draft Dak or Kyler, but
Josh Allen in the eighth and ninth round. I mean,
I think those are acceptable places to target him. Yeah, certainly.
(17:36):
And I think, uh, double which is difficult to accomplish, right,
I said that with that caveat, but double digit rushing
touchdown upside there he could do. Yeah, I think it's there.
The first couple of years at the NFL level, eight
and nine rushing touchdowns. Um, I think he's you know,
he's knocking on the doors. Is he going to do it?
(17:58):
You know? Probably not. I I think, you know, probably six,
like six seven is probably better of a menium expectation.
You're not projecting that for Josh Allen this year, but
I think the upside certainly there. David so I I
couldn't agree with you more. It's it's difficult to pay
um for the upside, especially where he's being drafted right now.
But I think he's competent enough, and once you have
(18:20):
the rushing upside um, you know, things get better for
for them. And I and I also agree with you, uh,
and that the Balls don't have to have a great
season for them to win the division, And that was
my point earlier, and that they can just go down
and seven and if the Patriots just you know, stidum,
it doesn't end up working out. I think nine and
seven this year might take the a f c's pretty easily. Yeah,
(18:44):
which is you know, it feels it feels crazy to say,
but that is just kind of the That is just
kind of the way of the world right now. And
I mean, you know, the the Bills could use Josh
Allen like Cam Newton, where they're just like that, dude
is our goal line back. You know, we get down
on the two yard line, we are gonna call quarterback power.
We're gonna have Devin Singletarry and Zack Moss out there
(19:06):
ahead of him, blocking, trying to get him into the
end zone. And I mean that is that is an
efficient way, like quarterback rushing on the goal line actually
is an efficient way to use running. Like that's one
of the areas where we know that running actually adds
expected points as opposed to taking it away. Moving to
the running backs, really interesting dichotomy that we have with
(19:29):
these running backs. Devin Singletarry to me, Pacheco is really
getting overdrafted. He goes and sometimes in the back end
of the third round, middle of the fourth round. You know,
every once in a while in Sharper drafts, he'll go
in the fifth round. But I just have such a
hard time finding a ceiling for him because I don't
(19:49):
think the Bills are gonna pass enough for him to
get like seventy catches. Right. But also, as we were
just speaking about, Josh Allen is going to be the
guy who scores the rushing touchdowns, right, He is to
be the one who gets the ball a lot of
the time at the goal line. So how does Devin
Singletary access a ceiling this year? Well? Yeah, okay, so
(20:11):
in agreement with you that the reception I'm side is
going to be difficult. You know, seven and catches that
that sounds almost impossible, uh, in this offense quite frankly. Um,
last year for Devin Singletary, he caught you know, twenty
nine passes and that was with what frame boer around
and and some miss games too, and some miss games
as well. Um. The thing that you you do have
(20:33):
to like about Devin Singletary, and I don't know how
much of a believer you are in this Davis is
the five point one yards per carry. Um, you know,
how how well is that going to translate into year two?
I'm not really sure. I know, he scored, he rushed
for just two touchdowns, which is not great. I realize
what you're saying. Maybe Josh Allen is is used more
(20:56):
in the goal line and he ends up being you know,
the touchdown get her from that perspective, But you could
also argue that, you know, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss
just get a bigger role on the goal line as well.
So if that is the case, you know, maybe Singletary
has you know, eight hundred nine hundred rushing yard upside
(21:16):
with seven to eight touchdowns. It's not great. Um, you know,
maybe he would have to knock on the door of
double digit rushing uh rushing touchdown upside to to really
be worse than in drafts. I'm not really sure he
has that. So in agreement with you, it's it's difficult
for me to see the upside pay and offer him.
So on the converse, Zack Moss is probably going to
(21:39):
inherit that Frank Gore role and Frank were actually did
more so than Singletary get opportunities at the goal line
last season. Are we interested in taking the discount with
Zack Moss and thinking we know he's gonna have a role,
but there might even be upside that he just outplays
Devin Singletary and their roles switch. You know, Zack Moss
and Singletary pretty similar the players. Both of them played
(22:01):
at smaller schools. So I guess Utah was really highly
ranked last year. I mean, no one really believed it
and they didn't they no one seriously talked about them
for the College Football Playoff as a result of that.
But you know, if you told me Zack Moss end
of the year, a hundred and ninety carries, twenty catches,
eight touchdowns, like, yeah, I mean that's a ceiling projection,
(22:23):
but like it could happen. I I don't. I'm not
overly targeting this backfield, but I prefer Moss at his
price tag to Singletarry at his Uh And I can
disagree with you there. Um, if I have to choose
between both one of the two, it would be Zack Moss. Um. Yes,
he he hasn't had a single snap at the NFL level,
but this was a good running back at the collegiate level. Um,
(22:46):
you know, the Bills drafted him. I think they'd like him. Uh,
not sure it's to take Devin Singletarry's job out right,
I don't think you know, Moss has the three like,
I don't think he has a bell Cow upside right
a way, I think the upside is possible. Um, if
Singletary just absolutely sucks this year or just gets hurt,
(23:08):
I think that upside is there. But I'm in agreement
with you. It's all about price. Tag Moss has the
better one, so I tend to to just go with
him and drafts. So now getting down to their pass catchers,
they trade a first round pick for Stefon Diggs this offseason,
displaces John Brown, displaces Cole Beasley. I mean they and
(23:28):
they were. Cole Beasley scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.
I'm not sure anyone is really buying that long term
for him. But you know, a pretty a pretty interesting,
a pretty interesting group here because we just expect this
to be such a low completion offense, right Like, it's
it's really hard to talk ourselves into step digs. But
I guess you know, along those same lines, it's not
(23:50):
like the Vikings were airing the ball out and the
Billing should have a pretty narrow passing tree like Dig
should pretty comfortably lead them in targets. So our d
afters maybe overreacting a little bit to this trade, and
maybe they should be valuing Digs a little bit higher.
I'm not sure about valuing him higher. I think the
(24:10):
comparison that you made is is pretty perfect. Well, I'm mean,
actually looking at uh numbers here, I would guess the
Vikings and Bills offense were ran pretty similarly, uh as
far as they just don't air the ball a whole lot.
They try to run the ball as much as they can.
You know, Josh Allen uh is arguably a better you know,
rushing quarterback than passing quarterback. UH. So, I don't think
(24:35):
the teams are very different. I think Diggs is probably
valued right around where he should be. Um. I think
he's going to be good. I think he's going to
be a top target in this offense, no doubt about it.
And I think the Bills actually needed a wide receiver
of this caliber. So I think they won that trade
and I'm excited to see how that one works out.
(24:55):
Do we have any interest in John Brown as you know,
secondary wide receiver or Dawson Knox as a potential breakout
tight end? Oh man, Um, I would say a little
bit of interest on both. I'm not sure how sustainable
it is, Like, I don't know how sustainable as offenses
for three of these guys ahead Davis, I would think
(25:19):
one of them is just just gonna bomb and not
give you a lot of value. But I think there's
some interest on my end for both of those guys. Yeah,
I think that, um, I think that is probably fair.
You know, offenses like this, if the Bills end up,
you know, being a better team, scoring more points, performing
more admirably in I don't know if that will actually
(25:39):
make their offense all that much better for fantasy, because
I don't think they're gonna play with a super fast pace.
I don't think that Josh Allen is going to get
more accurate. You know, the ways that this team improves
is probably likely through efficiency. So that means you know,
that means you know, just likely playing better near the
goal line, kicking less field goals, going for it, war
(26:00):
on fourth down, and maybe they do draw up some
stuff to make things a little bit easier for Josh Allen. Right,
you know, maybe maybe they find a way for some
easier completions and uh and things like that. But we
are going to go ahead and head into break here
on the Daily road To Hour on sports Gride TV.
When we return, we're gonna continue our series of a
(26:20):
f C East team previews and go to the Miami
Dolphins new quarterback, new running backs, UH and and just
see how we think that this team is going to
play out for fantasy in sports grid dot Com, Betting
insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our team
covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
(26:43):
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge
than get on the grid sports grid dot Com. M
hm hm, this is sports Dream. Hello everyone, and welcome
(27:09):
back from break here on the Daily Roado Hour on
Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Christopher
Pacheco as we continue our series of and previews, division
by division, team by team. Now today we are going
through the a f C East. We've gone through the
Patriots and the Bills, now turning our attention to the
Miami Dolphins, who have a new quarterback to UH drafted
(27:33):
at from the University of Alabama. Now we don't know
because you know, rookie mini camps are not happening because
we don't have uh, you know, we just don't have
information on what what these teams are up to. We
don't know how healthy to a is. You know, we
just we don't know, uh, you know, we we don't
know if he's going to be ready to start the season.
(27:53):
We don't know if he's going to start in we gate.
My hope, Pacheco, is that we get to uh in
like you know, we five or or something like that.
But maybe there's a scenario where Tua is ready to
go for week one. If let's let's say, in this
hypothetical Tua is ready to play in week one, where
would we value him amongst fantasy quarterbacks? Oh man, if
(28:17):
if he's if he's ready by week one, which by
the way, I think is a very long like big,
big time long shot. Um. I think the more realistic
scenario is that he's ready for like the second half
of the season, per se, not not even week five.
I think second half of the season makes a little
bit more sense. Um. And honestly, Davis, here's here's the thing.
(28:38):
I think if the Dolphins are doing well with Ryan
Fitzpatrick and they certainly kind of started to turn things
around later in the season, last year with Fitzpatrick under center,
they might just ride him and give two of the
year off. There's really no reason for them to push
it with two in year one, So I'm not I'm
not super optimistic that will say two up in one
(29:03):
um for this season. But I think if he's if
he's in there, given his rushing upside and given his
his collegiate talent, he would have to be like a
top say a top probably top four, top top twelve
quarterback like right away almost it really it really would
just depend on how much he ran. But I think
(29:23):
there's enough context in this offense to be like, wow,
things are things are looking up for the Dolphins, you
know whoever, and Fitzpatrick might even have some value, you know,
Mike Kisiki at tight end, DeVante Parker at wide receiver,
Preston Williams coming back from his a c L tear. Like,
I think there's a lot to be excited about as
(29:43):
as a member of this team. I mean, Fitzpatrick probably
not a guy we are drafting in our uh seasonal
fantasy leagues, you know, like like and especially in bestball,
where if he is uh not on the roster, you
know you're gonna be feeling or if he on your roster,
you just don't know how long you're gonna be able
to count on points from him, So you're you're probably
(30:06):
not feeling great about best ball. But like week one
DFS like come on, like we like we'll probably play him, right,
He'll probably be in the mix because he'll be near
the dead minimum on fan duel and he'll be uh,
he'll be a good stacking target. And I think the
same thing is true of Tuah for Daily Fantasy is
like I'm whatever his prices in his first start, I
feel like I'm gonna want to have exposure him because
(30:28):
I think he really has some crazy, you know, uncapped upside. Yeah,
I think I think he has loads of upside whenever
we do see him, uh, and the whole business that
he they don't they don't push him are and he
comes in and can be healthy because that that's the
main thing. If he's gonna be out there with with
this hip thing, his rushing upside is going to be capped.
(30:49):
And I do want to Davis, you know how big
of a rusher will he be at the NFL level,
Because at the at the collegiate level, he certainly was
he had that rushing upside. He did get hurt, you know,
and it's a hit, and that that changes it for sure, right,
So that that changes it for sure. And I wonder
how much of the Dolphins want to push him. Um
(31:09):
But even then, if he just has rushing upside near
the goal line, that might be enough. And it's all
about just grabbing those rushing touchdowns. And I think that
is still a very legitimate possibility for two. Yeah, I
think that is. I think that is definitely the case.
So pretty much a brand new running back room for
the Miami Dolphins. They still have our layered in savior.
(31:31):
Patrick Layard is going to be third downs and should
play on special teams a ton for the Dolphins. But
I don't think that we will see hardly any of
calin Balage this year. I don't think we will see
much Miles Gascon this year. So they signed Jordan Howard
in free agency. They trade a fifth round draft pick
for Matt Brita. Uh, you know, I think that Brita
(31:54):
makes a pretty great late round running back target. You know,
I think getting him in the eighth, ninth, ten ound,
he's got a ton of upside. He actually was the
fastest ball carrier in the NFL last year per NFL
next Gen Stats, reaching a top speed of twenty two
point three miles per hour. He has a ton of
upside in games where he gets, you know, fifteen or
(32:14):
more touches. So I'm I'm a I'm pretty in on
Matt Breda on his price tag. You know, I kind
of think that coaches love guys like Jordan Howard who
come in. They do all the right things. You know,
Jordan Howard knows how to be an NFL running back,
but he just has no upside. Right, Like, even if
even if Jordan Howard wins this job outright Pacheco, he
(32:36):
probably you know, maybe he catches twenty passes, maybe he
scores eight touchdowns, but both of those even seem optimistic
to me. Really, Yeah, I'm gonna agreement with you. Like,
I don't think Jordan Howard is is bad. I just don't.
I don't see the upside either. Uh. And I really
like Matt breed up so uh for his career. Uh,
(32:59):
he as three and eighty one carries to his name,
and he's he's average five yards per carry. Uh. I
don't know, again, Davis, I don't know how much of
a believer you are on that statistic UH year to
year and how it translates. I think there is Personally,
I think there's a decent amount of varyings for that
(33:20):
to statistics. So I'm not like a huge believer in it.
But when I start to take a look at the
bigger sample for a career, then I start to believe
in a little bit more. And I think bred up.
He hasn't had a bell cow role at the NFL yet, um,
but I think his upside is better than Howard. I
think he's a better pass catcher and I think he's
(33:41):
just more efficient. So even if Howard ends up winning
this job, I still think Breta could come in and
and win it at some point, like like compete for
that starting role at some point and you can get
him late. So I just think it makes all the
sense in the world that he would be the top
target UH as a running back to the Miami Dolphins
than than even Jordan Howard. Yeah, I think I think
(34:04):
that's definitely true. Like Breeda just has way more uh Like,
he has way more ways in which he can have
a really good season, right, Like he could become the
primary passing down back and catch a lot of checkdowns, right, Like,
he could just be the better pass blocking back and
earn more snaps that way. He I think the the
one way where Howard has like a really tremendous season
(34:27):
that you get mad that you're not owning in your
league's would be, you know, it would basically be that
he is able to earn a monopoly of the goal
line work and the Dolphins are a lot better than
we expect, and as a result of being a lot
better than we expect, there are more touchdowns available, and
with all those touchdowns available, you know, he basically just
kind of goes nuts. That's really sort of the only
(34:49):
way I think Jordan Howard can get there. And and
I just don't really target guys like that who who
have very low floor like I think Howard has both
a low floor and a low ceiling. Like I think
he could just get straight up bench and not be
a part of this team's running back rotation at all.
And I don't like Breed is going to be involved
pretty much no matter what. Yeah, it's a good point
(35:12):
that you bring up, because I think Brita is gonna
be at least in there for passing down to where
I don't see that scenario happening for Jordan Howard. So
if he does his outright stink and he does so
right away, uh, he could have just end up not
having any sort of value uh and this offense. So
to to that point earlier, I think Brita is certainly
(35:32):
the guy that you want to target. Uh. And if
it's only just because he's gonna have a passing down role,
I think that's at least worth targeting in this offense
because I think things are certainly looking up, especially when
Tah is going to be the quarterback at some point.
I think the running backs are gonna benefit from that
at some point as well. Alright, So digging into the
(35:54):
pass catchers, are you a DeVante Parker or a Preston
Williams guy? I am a DeVante Parker guy. Okay, let's
break it down. Let's break it down. I mean Devonte Parker,
the rare fifth year breakout in the NFL. Don't don't
get those that come along very often. But DeVante Parker,
you know, first wide receiver, uh, first two PPR point
(36:17):
season of his career last year. Uh, And and he
was great, you know, I'm not not trying to throw
any shade on him, but are you worried at all that? Um?
After never having more than seven hundred and forty four
receiving yards in a season, he finally breaks out yards
nine touchdowns in sixteen games. I mean, are you Are
you worried at all? Um? I think the worry for
(36:40):
me at this point would be like, perhaps twelve yards
is too steep, especially if you're projecting that. I don't
think you can, Um. But that's about it for me. Davids,
like I think his talent um is legit. I think
he broke out late for a reason. I really didn't
think that those often seems that he was a part
(37:01):
of We're any good. I think last year's Dolphins teams
started to be started to be a bit more competent,
and I think, I believe it or not, Fitzpatrick and
to a profile a little bit similarly to me, and
that they just they just throw the ball wherever, they
just air it out um, and they're not really worried
about interceptions per se, which is good for the receivers.
(37:22):
Even in tight coverage, they're going to try and throw
them the ball. So I think Parker is going to
be the top target, whether fifth Patrick is under center
or whether it was under center. And I think his
his his talent is very legitimate. Yeah, I think that
is I think that is true. I prefer drafting Parker.
I will take Williams on occasion. Um, the problem you
(37:46):
run into with Williams is he's an undrafted free agent
and and those guys without draft capital, you know, they
just don't always end up getting used, even if they
are productive as rookies. I think a guy you and
I are both going to agree on, though, Mike Kasiki
as one of your late round tight end targets. You know,
you take Mike Kasicki in the ninth, tenth, eleventh round.
And I mean last year he really saw so much
(38:10):
volume after Preston Williams got injured. If you go look
at his game logs last year, you know since week eight, six, six, six, seven, seven, five, eight,
twelve and seven were his per game target numbers. I mean,
he was a real part of this offense last year certainly,
and you have to believe that he's gonna be uh
(38:33):
he was going to continue to be a big part
of this offense moving forward as well. I think so Davis.
I think the concern level for Gasicki is probably on
the lower end as well. Like I still think he
could replicate what he did, uh last year where he
taught you know, fifty one balls and and scored five touchdowns.
(38:56):
Like I said, I think that's that's very replicable. I
think he can do it again this year. UM, I'm
not as worried about him. I think the worry honestly
is that, um, he doesn't go late and people start
to kind of nab them earlier. UM. I don't think
that that's going to happen. So if you can grab
him late, I would go for it. It's all about
price act. So if he started going earlier, UM I
(39:18):
would I would start getting to concerned at that point. Yeah,
all right, everyone, We're gonna go ahead and head into
our final break here on the daily Road to Hour
on sports Grid TV. When we get back saving the
Least for last with the New York Jets of the AMP,
sports grid dot Com, Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:41):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back for
our final segment here on the Daily Road to our
on Sports Grade TV. I'm Davis and joined by Christopher Pacheco,
continuing our series of team by team breakdowns for the
(40:06):
NFL season going through the a f C East. Today,
we've done the Patriots, We've done the Bills, we have
done the Miami Dolphins, and now we are sitting here
with the last team left, the New York Football Jets
and Pacheco. You know, I want to believe that Sam
Donald has it in him to be better. I do.
(40:27):
I I am an optimist. I I want to think
that he has a ceiling yet to be displayed. And
you know, to be fair to him, he got better
last season as the season went on, you know, he
was he had uh some great games against the Oakland Raiders,
had a good game, you know, like there were there
(40:48):
were games against the Giants and against Washington that were
interspersed in there. But pretty much every time he played
against a good team, things went south really quickly. So
you know, what are we what are we feeling about
Sam Donald? Do you think he has a ceiling? Left.
I think so, Um, you know he's still he's still young. Uh.
(41:09):
This is going to be his age twenty three UH season.
He was certainly good in college. We haven't really seen
him be that good at the NFL level. It seems like,
you know, he's always throwing a bunch of interceptions. Uh
and to your points, specifically when he goes up against
good teams, just seems like he disappears. Um, we'll see
(41:30):
you know of an improvement on offensive line that certainly
could help him past catchers in his offense. You know, David,
they had a brushop Herriman. Um, they're gonna have Herndon
back the tight end. I think that that could help him. Um.
Things are just not looking very good for the Jets,
and in fact, I thought, you know, them being a
little bit higher favorites to win the division on on
(41:53):
the FanDuel Sports but betting page, Uh their plus seven
hundred to one a division whereas the Dolphins a plus
seven fifty. I think you can easily flip those and
I would believe you because I think the Jets realistically
probably have the worst roster uh in in this division.
The offense is just very mad and the defense also
(42:15):
is kind of mad as well. So um, it's gonna
take a lot for them. It's gonna take a lot
of things to go wrong with the other UH teams
in this division for the Jets to have a shot
um this year. And also Davis, I would say part
of the problem with Donald uh is that a quarter
of his games are spent, you know, playing against the
(42:36):
Patriots and the Bills defense, which are really it's really
really difficult to to accumulate fantasy points against those defenses. Yeah,
I mean there they are. Like you can think whatever
you want about the Patriots offense, you can think whatever
you want about the Bills offense. The strength of those
teams is on their defenses. And by the way, the
Dolphins sign Um Byron Jones in free agency, they made
(43:00):
improvements to their defense, so you know, wouldn't wouldn't be
surprising to me if they have an improved defensive unit
this year as well. So you know, I think, uh,
I think there are reasons to be concerned about the
Indivision opponents for sure. So if I wanted to be
optimistic on Sam Donald Um, this is what I would say.
First off, I would say he is still younger than
(43:22):
Joe Burrow right like he is he is now as
we are speaking now, Um, he is twenty three years
old and eighteen days, so he just turned twenty three.
Go back and look at his college stats as a
red shirt freshman, so a nineteen year old in the
pack twelve, UM, he threw four sixty seven percent completion
(43:44):
over three thousand yards at nine yards per adjusted attempt,
thirty one touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Now, the interceptions became
more of a problem in his sophomore season at USC,
but there are still things you can point to in
his profile to be like, you know what, Uh, this
guy probably he's got more upside than just looking at
(44:04):
his raw numbers in the NFL right now. Basically it's
kind of what I think. Certainly, Yeah, you can't look
at his NFL numbers and be like, oh, yeah, there's
certainly gonna be upside here, because that's not what those
numbers point to. I think you have to dig a
little bit deeper. So as you as you mentioned, you
have to dig into the college numbers and the fact
that he's young, uh, and in college he he was
(44:26):
very good and looked like he had a lot of
armed talent level Uh, so, I think it's it's still there, Davis.
The real issue is the team. I wonder if the
team can can put something together for him where we
do see the upside, because it's very possible that Donald
is just it's just kind of wasted in the Jets
(44:46):
because they never give him good pass catchers and they
never give him a good offensive line. And honestly, if
a quarterback doesn't have a good offensive line or a
good pass catchers, they tend to not be very good quarterbacks.
So it really wouldn't surprise me if that's the case
for Donald. Yeah. Um, and so a name we haven't
even mentioned yet, but a big, big problem also could
(45:06):
be maybe Adam Gates just isn't a very good coach,
and maybe Adam Gaze being involved with the New York Jets.
I mean, if you go look at Adam Gaze's track record,
his one good offense was when Peyton Manning was his quarterback, right,
And you know, it's it's pretty easy to figure things
out when Peyton Manning is your quarterback and fixing everything
at the line of scrimmage. So maybe there is like
(45:27):
a second part of Sam Donald's career. So maybe Gates
gets fired and Donald is still bad this year, but
like I I still kind of like him. I still
kind of think that they're like you know, you know,
Donald kind of reminds me of kind of reminds me
of um Brett Farve. Actually, it's like kind of the
or or maybe like maybe like a little Tony Romo
(45:48):
Ask Actually is kind of the way I think about him.
So kids upside, his upside that is not not who
he is now, but like his upside, So you think
he's he's uh, he's like a gun slinger, right slinger,
Like he doesn't care about the interceptions. He's just gonna
air it out. Um. The thing is, so I think
(46:10):
Donald what he's not gonna end up being right. It
is like a pay Banning or Tom Brady or he
hands up right, like no chance of that sort of
upside being realized because he's just not that type of
quarterback to make the other receivers that are completely relevant better,
So that that is just completely out the window. I
think I agree with you and that he needs a
(46:31):
better coach, He needs a better support system for us
to see that upside being realized. It looks like this
year it might not be the case because we still
have Adam Gays, but we still have this offense, and
I just I really questioned it because a lot of
the names are just kind of gross. And also the
running back room, which we're going to dive in into
any second now, is not great either. So Donald, he
(46:54):
needs more support and I'm not sure he hasn't this year. Well,
you know the reason we spend so much time talking
about the back for this team is if Donald hits
and Donald plays like a guy, a quarterback drafted with
the you know, a top five pick in the NFL draft,
things are gonna be easier for levy On Bell, Things
are gonna be easier for Brashon. Perriman thinks you're gonna
be easier for Denzel Mims, for Chris Herndon. Like I
(47:16):
think it really does all come down to Donald, I
will say right now, but Checko just no interest in
Levan Bell. Haven't taken him once. You know, I've done
fifty however many drafts I am I am not taking.
I am just not taking him. Like last year he
had zero runs of twenty yards or more. So, just like,
(47:37):
what what's the point? What are we what are we
hoping to accomplish by drafting Levy on Bell. Well, honestly,
I think the worst part about Bell is not not
only is he just getting older, um and he's not
very old yet, but he has a lot of threat
on those tires. I think the biggest concern it's the
price tag Davis for us. As long as we've been
(47:58):
doing as long as we've been doing this shows he's
been like a top forty player, and I just I
don't know what people are seeing. I don't think he's
a top sixty player. I just you can't draft him
where he's being drafted right now. You have to wait
for the price at to tank more and more, and
I'm not sure we ever get to that level. So
I'm I'm right there with you. I have no interest
(48:19):
in Levyon Bell, especially when the Jets went out there
and drafted and running back and also signed Frank Gore.
I just there's no interest for me Levyan Bell this year.
It's all signs points to them trying to divvy up
the work instead of making Bell the Bell Cow, which
has to be a really big concern for someone that's
(48:40):
being dropped into the top forty. I mean, the only
reason he could be considered to draft. Where he's going
now should basically be because he might get three touches.
But I just I don't even know if I don't
even really know if the Jets want to do that.
So you know they have all they just have all
of these other guy is on the roster. So right
(49:01):
now you know they're running back room. They signed Frank Gore,
they have Trent and Cannon. Still they draft uh La,
Michael p Ryan, Josh Adams is still on the roster,
and and you know, I think they I think they
don't want to use the Levian on passing downs as
much as you know the the Dealers used him. And
I just I basically I don't see the upside. And
I think his floor, his floor could just be disgusting,
(49:23):
right His floor could be something like you know, two
and thirty carries but only like twenty, like only like
twenty catches or something like. I just I just don't
like it. I just I'm not in on him at all.
Do you remember when when Levian had like like eighty
receptions as his upside, like he had that in his profile.
(49:46):
In fact, last year he caught sixty six passes. I
don't honestly don't remember any of them, so so there
goes that. But like to your point, I think with
them adding these running backs into the room, like it
doesn't see like they really want him to be in
their third downs. And if you remove the past, like
the catching upside for lebian Bell, it starts to get
(50:06):
really really grows. So I just I don't want any
part of him where he's being drafted, and I don't
think that the price tag is gonna take enough where
I start to get interested. Yeah, I I certainly, I
certainly agree with that line of thought where I just
I just don't really see the upside and I don't
really see the floor that others are are seeing as
well as far as their wide receivers go. You know,
(50:30):
I I think that the guy that I am I
think that the guy that I am interested in is Perriman.
I know a lot of people like Jamison Crowder, and
I see what they're there. I see what the thought
is with Jamison Crowder, where you know, maybe he just
is getting every single slot snap, getting every single slot target.
(50:52):
Maybe Sam Donald is you know, a checkdown king. I
think that I think I believe Crowder had a nineteen
target game last season, like they just they really were
using him like crazy out of that position. But our
seventeen target game, by the way, that was in Week one,
seventeen targets fourteen receptions, but only for nine nine yards.
And that's kind of what you get with Crowder, like
(51:13):
just the ultimate no ceiling, safe floor pick. I just
I'm not interested. Um. Perriman though, I think does have
a little bit more of a ceiling, you know, down
the field. Yeah, Perriman does have a bigger ceiling, especially
with what we saw him do in Tampa Bay towards
the end of the season, where where a lot of
their guys started getting hurt on the receiving room and
(51:35):
Perraman really stepped up became a legitimate downfield threat for
that team. I think something similar can happen uh in
this offense. Though it seems like he has a very
similar quarterback to someone like Jameis Winston, because I think
Donald certainly airs it out and doesn't really care about
the interceptions. Um, so I am in agreement with you there.
(51:55):
I think Chris Herndon as a late round tight end,
Davis as someone that I can kind of buy. I'm
not sure what do you think of him? But I
was impressed by his kind of his first year at
the NFL level. Didn't do anything crazy, but you know,
caught thirty nine balls and and generated five receiving yards.
I think something like that or a little bit better
(52:17):
could be in the equation for the young tight end.
And I have interest because of the price tag as well. Yeah,
we get some post hype sleeper action from Herndon. He
might end up being the best jet for fantasy that
uh that there is So everyone, Thank you very much
for listening and watching to the Daily Roado Hour on
Sports Grade TV. This has been Davis Maddick and Christopher
Pacheco continuing our series of NFL team previews going all
(52:40):
around the NFL. We will be continuing this series tomorrow
and for the rest of the week, getting you all
upstate on every team in the NFL. Sports Gride dot
Com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more.
(53:02):
Want the edge than get on the grid. Sports grid
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