July 2, 2020 • 53 mins
Davis Mattek hosts DailyRoto Hour and is joined by Ricky Sanders, as the guys discuss the news of Cam Newton signing a deal with the Patriots and what it means for Jarrett Stidham. Davis and Ricky also discuss other news around the NFL, including the Deebo Samuel injury and what it means for 49ers WR's going into the fantasy football season. The guys also discuss some ADPs they have seen in drafts over the last few weeks.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Grid TV. I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Ricky Sanders.
We are again changing stream on you guys because we've
had some we have had some big news come down
the NFL pipelines. So we're gonna start the show today
with Cam Newton's signing. We will continue our MLB team
(00:42):
by team, division by division by division preview tomorrow, but
we we have to talk you know, really, I think
the biggest sporting news that we've had in terms of
player movement over the last few weeks. So just just
right away here, Ricky, do we think Cam Newton is
a good fit in New England? Do we think he's
likely to outperform Jared Stidham in so I think those
(01:06):
are two very different questions. Whether he's a good fit,
and whether he can outperform Jared's Stidham. I think the
answer of Canny outperformed Jared Stidham is is he remotely healthy?
I mean, if we see anything close to a healthy
Cam Newton, it's impossible to say that his upside does
not far exceed that of Jared's Stidham. But you look
(01:29):
at those numbers from last year, and you had there
was nothing you could do but look at them and
say there was not a healthy Cam Newton. Davis, how
many scrambles do you think Cam Newton was credited for
last year's just showing how unhealthy his lower body was.
How many do you think he actually officially was was
(01:49):
given credit for according to Pro Football Focus. So I
remember in that Thursday night Tampa Bay game, Uh, they
were they had the ability to win the game there
at the end, I think it was it was fourth
and one, right they so they they were fourth and goal,
rather they were on like the one or two yard line.
And remember they called that weird like swing play to
(02:11):
Christian McCaffrey to try and get him up the edge.
And basically you're sitting there going Cam Newton is you know,
really the best goal line back in the NFL right now, Like,
I don't know, if there's one other player, I would say, Okay,
we're on the two yard line. We have to score
on this play. Cam go and get the touchdown. And
they didn't even think about calling that play. So my
(02:32):
guess is he literally had zero scrambles in those two games.
I would literally put the number at zero very close.
You couldn't be closer one scramble in those in those games,
which is crazy when you think that Newton was a
guy who, you know, early in his career was approaching
fifty scrambles in a season. So obviously we didn't see
(02:54):
a healthy Cam Newton last year. I think there were
lower body and upper body issues. But I've seen, you know,
Twitter say that they gave him this, like you know,
this tiny deal that's incentive late in Like how can
you give him the reins instead of jared'stid him? Like
how can you look at that contract? And I think
it's well, let him go out and earn the incentives
(03:14):
and let's see what he's got. I don't see how
you start, you know, Jared Stidham over Newton. We expected
them to sign one of these guys who was available
off the street, whether it was him or jamis it
just so happened Newton is the one who landed there.
I think this is a fit in the sense that
does Bill Belichick want to win games? Okay, let's use
someone who has some experience. Yeah, I think that's reasonable.
(03:37):
I think, you know, just wanting basically wanting Bill Belichick
to have a quarterback who has played more games, has
played big games. And you know, we we kind of
discussed this on the show back after the NFL Draft,
where we thought, you know, maybe they take Jalen Hurts,
maybe they select a quarterback later in the draft, and
they didn't use any of those picks. Then Andy Dalton
signs with the Cowboys and we are thinking, okay, well, well,
(03:58):
what is the plan. Are they really gonna go with
Jared Stidham? And I think now we have seen that
the answer to that question is no. I I would
imagine the Patriots plan is to go with Cam Newton
from day one. And you know why I'm into that
is basically, over the last two years, Cam has had
a Liz Frank injury to his foot. That was what
happened last year in eighteen he was having problems with
(04:21):
his shoulder. Now they really changed the way that the
Panthers offense worked in twenty eighteen. Every year of Cam's
career he had been below a sixty one completion percentage
quarterback for his career fifty nine point six percent. But
in seventy one passing attempts in fourteen games, he completes
(04:42):
sixty seven point nine percent of his passes. His yards
per passe attempt was seven point two, his adjusted yards
per pass attempt was seven. But also in that season,
you know Cam's rushing, uh, it was still there in eighteen,
but he only averaged four point eight yards per carry,
only ran for four touchdowns. I think basically what we
can take away is Cam really hasn't been healthy since seventeen.
(05:05):
You go back and look at seventeen, you're like, Okay,
the Panthers go eleven and five. Cam completes about fifty
percent of his passes. Uh, he had a hundred and
thirty nine rushing attempts for seven hundred and fifty four
yards there. I think that all of this time off,
you know, Cam literally is not played in a game
since Week two of twenty nineteen. I think you just
(05:26):
have to assume the Patriots believe that a full bill
of health, Cam Newton is like, you know, he's actually
probably ready to be a super Bowl winning quarterback for them,
and they could. They probably even want to play him
more in that Panthers style where he's making a lot
of quick throws throwing to the running backs a lot,
as opposed to that more high variant style that he
(05:46):
played in Carolina for so long. Completely agree with that take.
It's like what Tom Brady turned into in his elder days,
which is, you know, you've got James White, You've got
Julian Edelman, You've got all these guys who could find
in the short field. You know, let those guys go
out and make plays. It was basically what San Francisco did.
They didn't force Jimmy Garoppolo to be like the absolute
(06:09):
guy on their offense. They they established the run and
they they relied on short passing and if they had
to punt, you rely on your defense. I think the
Patriots trust their defense. So you just find a guy
with any semblance of upside where he can make the
throw downfield if need be uh and he can scramble
for you, and he just gives you, you know, a
few additional aspects that Jared'stidham just doesn't. I don't know
(06:31):
if you know. The signing of Cam Newton changes this
this Patriots team into one of the top five teams
in terms of you know, the ones that i'd have, uh,
you know, interested in betting to make the Super Bowl.
But it certainly makes them more competitive. And Bill Belichick
has been quoted in the past is saying, you know,
the quarterbacks who run just give you that added dimension.
He hasn't really had that, So I'm interested to see
(06:52):
how that sort of works into the offense. Well and
you know, so you look at Jared's did him and
you say, okay, what would the Patriots plan have in
with him? And it would have been for him to
run a little bit. It would have been for them
to have that really run heavy offense where they probably
have some designed quarterback runs. Maybe they put in some
options style stuff in the offense, you know, some of
(07:12):
that r p O, like like really run pass options.
It's very hard to do with Tom Brady as your
quarterback because he just is not mobile enough to make
those plays work. I think even a Cam Newton that
is not getting a ton of designed runs. I think
it's probably still likely that he is one of the
better quarterbacks that creating space inside of the pocket, even
(07:34):
if he doesn't have to, you know, actually break the
pocket all that often. So I think that the Patriots
plans would not have to change that much with Cam
Newton over Jared Stidham. It's just that the quarterback they
will have running all of those plays is much better.
And uh, I I saw this extremely funny tweet this week.
You know about this situation, which is that last year
(07:57):
in practice, Jared Stidham was throwing passes in a number
fifty eight Jersey Ricky. Uh like a like a gunners
number Jersey. So I I I sort of think that
the Patriots playing this whole time was to get Cam Newton,
get Andy Dalton, get Nick Foles, you know, kind of whoever,
whoever that veteran quarterback must have been. I I am
now of the opinion that the Patriots were never going
(08:19):
in Week one with Jared Stidham. Yeah. I believe that too.
And now the question becomes, how do you handicap this
receiving corps? Because I was looking back and it's like,
what receiver has really taken off under Cam Newton other
than Kelvin Benjamin. Even DJ Moore really didn't take off
under Cam Newton. You look at last year in the
(08:40):
few games he averaged fewer Fantasy foods, and I know
it was an injured version of Newton. Uh, you know
with Cam Newton that he did with the rest of
the the bums, I think we can safely call them
that the team had to throw out there. You know,
with Cam Newton hurt. So I mean DJ Moore was
primed for a breakout season probably regardless of who was
throwing him the football. But the question is Newton better
(09:04):
suited to you know, is there gonna be enough volume
in the in the short field like we saw Kim
was throwing shorter the last full season. Is there gonna
be enough volume for Julian Edelman that you don't adjust him.
I feel like we have to adjust him downwards. I
don't think Cam's specialty is throwing in that short field.
And then the question becomes like who is his guy
(09:26):
on the outside, And it's between the Kiel Harry and
Mohammed's a new and I've been drafted Mohammed's new late
in league. So I continue to believe in him, but
I still think this wide receiving cores a mess, and
I think it's possible we like don't get any of
these guys above seven yards and it's just kind of
a spread the field offense again. So I I completely
(09:48):
agree with you, Edelman. I think loses out the most
in this offensive shift from Tom Brady. You know, those
quick throws, reading the blitz, getting it out, you know,
trying to beat zone a lot of the time. And
you know, it's very hard to play zone against running
quarterbacks because they will they will just take off and
go right. It's it's much harder. It's much harder to
(10:08):
defend running quarterbacks against zone coverage. And I I just
wrote an article on sports grade dot com yesterday about
breakout second year wide receivers of you know, the guys
who sucked the rookie years so and Kiel, Harry j
j R. Sigal Whiteside, Andy Isabella, Paris Campbell, Myles Boykin.
You know, all these guys who were drafted in the
top one d picks didn't end up breaking out last season,
(10:31):
which is crazy because the wide receiver class was, you know,
just full of all these guys who broke out. And
the conclusion I came away with is I think Harry
is gonna end up being the big winner here. If
you look at the way and Kiel Harry played in college,
and the way Calvin Benjamin played in college, and Kelvin
Benjamin is really the only wide receiver that Cam Newton
ever made better. And I think the reason why he
(10:53):
was able to make Cam Newton better is it was
just a really good stylistic fit. Cam is never gonna
be this hyper accurate ass or who's tearing down defenses
making centimeter perfect throws, but he can break the pocket
he does have, you know, just this absolute cannon of
an arm downfield. Um, he's gonna put it in a
spot where only the wide receiver can win in contested
(11:13):
cat situations. I am super interested in drafting and Kill
Harry in my drafts later on this year. You know,
I think he is kind of that perfect best ball
wide receiver to take in rounds fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, because
he's not gonna get cut. You know, you know, Isabella
are second whiteside, Those guys can end up getting cut.
But and Kill Harry is going to be a starting
(11:34):
wide receiver Week one for the Patriots. How many receivers
you think have had seventy receptions with Cam Newton. It's
it's should just be Steve Smith and Calvin Benjamin. I
don't think anyone else has. Steve Smith is the entire answer.
Steve Smith seventy three receptions and seventy nine receptions in
two seasons. Otherwise, it's a lot of Greg Olsen and
(11:55):
Christian McCaffrey towards the top of the reception leaders with
Cam Newton. You look at the thousand yard receivers with
Cam Newton, Steve Smith Jr. Did it twice, Greg Olsen
did it once, and that's it. Then the next best
season was Greg Olson two yards. Next best season Calvin
Benjamin one. So if you're looking for like a wide
receiver one to emerge from this offense, I think you're
(12:19):
looking at the rock offense. Yeah, that that's true. And
and you know, I kind of think that Josh McDaniel,
this is a perfect situation for him. You know, basically
we remember Josh mcdd you know, he loved he loved Tebow, right,
that was his guy, And and Cam Newton does kind
of everything that Tebow does. He does it way better,
you know, better runner, better pass, or just overall a
(12:41):
better player. So I have to think that McDaniel is
very excited about this signing. We are going to go
ahead and head into break here on the Daily Road
To Hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we're
going to turn over the other NFL news that is
happening as uh as time continues to pass while all
of us are here in COVID nineteen lockdown, gonna discuss
a little bit of Antonio Brown, a little bit of
(13:05):
the Indianapolis Colts, and uh, We're gonna just go ahead
and keep the NFL news train rolling heading into our
first break here on the Daily Road to hours. See
you guys on the other side in just a little bit.
Sports grid dot Com betting insides and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
(13:28):
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from
break here on sports grid TV. This is the Daily
Road To Hour with Davis Maddock joined by Ricky Sanders.
Today this is our NFL News Update show, taking a
(13:48):
break from our MLB team by team, division by division preview.
The Cam Newton signing was discussed heavily in the first segment,
and now we are going to kind of go around
the league with some small and fell news updates, though
I guess this first rumor that we're getting is not
particularly small. Michael Lombardi of The Athletic has reported that
he's heard rumors linking Antonio Brown to the Buccaneers. Um
(14:12):
Pat McAfee has reported this as well, that he's hearing, uh,
some rumors that Antonio Brown might be heading to the Buccaneers.
Kind of makes sense in one way. The Buccaneers don't
have a good third wide receiver, you know, it's it's
Justin Watson, Scottie Miller. They lost Brashod Perryman in free agency.
Now we know that historically those teams have played, you know,
(14:35):
Bruce arians and Tom Brady offenses have played a ton
of twelve personnel. So O J. Howard pretty capable third
guy out there with Rob Gronkowski and even Cameron brad
But I mean, just just starting here, do we buy it, Ricky,
Do we think that Antonio Brown? Uh? Is gonna play
in the NFL. In overall, let's just start there. What
what would you make the line of Antonio Brown playing
(14:56):
in the NFL in I still think he's the longest
shot to play. And do I buy it? Versus am
I happy about it? Are two different arguments we can
talk about. You know, Bruce Arians saying that there was
no way that Antonio Brown was gonna come over. But
I still think if I were handicapping it, it'd be
like plus two hundred plus two fifty for Antonio Brown
(15:19):
to play in the NFL this season. But that being said,
if it turns out that Bruce Arians is not the
one calling the shots anymore, I mean, you look at
the game that Antonio Brown played with the Patriots last year.
Brady was obviously happy to have him. They forced fed
him the ball eight targets in one game. Uh, they
found him in the end zone. They obviously wouldn't have
(15:41):
to do that now because they have a full offense
full of guys who need the ball, uh and should
have the ball, by the way. So I think Antonio Brown,
you know, he got his game back with Brady and
now he'd just be a part of the offense but
I still think it's the underdog here. Maybe you disagree
with me. I don't know. There's just been so much
going on with Antonio Brown. It's hard to assume that
(16:02):
he just got his head right. So I don't even
know if his head is right. But these are these
to me are why he is going to be playing
so first, and I think most importantly, uh, he is
currently not facing any charges in court for anything he
uh whatever. I don't remember the exact specifics of what
he ended up being charged with last season that, you know,
(16:25):
in just in the middle of all that chaos with
the Patriots after he got cut, you know, there was
that report that the police showed up at his house
and he was charged with, um, you know, some kind
of assault charge. But he got sentence two hundred hours
of community service. I believe he might be on probation. Uh,
not not sure on that. But he's not not facing
any new charges, you know, not under arrest, not in jail.
(16:45):
So right away, I think, you know, you can make
an argument as an NFL team who wants to sign
Antonio Brown. You can be like, well, why is he
on the commissioner's exemple list? You know, he's not facing
any criminal charges, he hasn't done anything wrong, so on
and so fourth uh, and then we just know that
Tom Brady likes him, right, He made all these Instagram
posts about him. He was on his side. He he
(17:06):
made that. He made that Instagram post about saying, you know,
Antonio Brown, you can sleep on my couch, you can
come over, you can you can be at my house.
So we know that tom Brady wants him to play there.
And I think my opinion is tom Brady just wants
to play with as many elite players as possible because
he wants to shove it to the Patriots. He wants
to be like, you guys thought I was done. You
(17:28):
guys didn't spend money to get me what I needed.
You know, weren't spending enough picks on offensive players, weren't
setting me up to succeed. And I think it's pretty
likely that Tom Brady is making some of the decisions there,
or or at least if he's not making the decisions,
he is saying, look, guys, I leverage my whole career.
You know this is this has the chance to go
really bad for me. People are not gonna like it's
(17:49):
not gonna be fun for people to remember me flaming
out here in Tampa Bay. You guys have to do
right by me, And I think if Tom wants Antonio Brown,
tom is gonna get Antonio Brown. Yeah. The thing here
is and it bugs me a little and honestly might
not even be Bruce arians fault, but for some reason,
with like these signings where a team says they have
(18:09):
absolutely no interest in Bruce Arians specifically says he did,
it's a different sort of coach speak to me, and
it irks me a little bit because I just want
to you know, it's not like there's a huge market
for Antonio Brown where you need to be like, uh,
you know, showing the market that you're not interested so
you can get a better deal on him, etcetera, etcetera.
But it just irks me a bit in the age
of fake news when a coach says like, we have
(18:31):
no interest and then they go and sign a guy,
Whereas I like have a tolerance for you know, there's
a good chance this guy isn't playing, and then he
plays because you know, at least with a superlative you
can you can kind of read under the lines like Okay,
this coaches, is trying to mislead the other team. But
why trying to mislead you know, the public and a
guy that really doesn't have much interest because of the
(18:54):
way he's acted over the course of the last year.
So that's just irked me a little bit. Maybe that's
a personal problem for me, And maybe it wasn't even
Arian's fault. Maybe it was the fact that they, you know,
signed Brady and Brady is like, okay, I'm taking over,
and Ari's just has no saying it. But you know,
I thought it was an interesting fit from the start,
and Arians mixed it and apparently it's it's obviously still
(19:15):
on the table. Yeah, it is still on the table,
and I I think that is important, right because you know,
right now, if you're doing Bestball drafts, Antonio Brown goes
in eleven twelve, thirteenth round. You know, we did that
um quarantine startup draft. I took Antonio Brown, I think
in the fourteenth round. I'm not exactly sure, but you know,
(19:37):
for for me personally, it is going to be a
net positive if Antonio Brown is signed. You know, I
have enough invested in him at appropriate cost, and I'm
definitely rooting for him to sign. I think the interesting
thing is the moment he signed Ricky, he is going
to be overvalued, um, because especially in Tampa Bay. I
I think that if he signed to Tampa Bay, I
(19:59):
would still actually project him third in target share behind
Evans and Godwin. And my guess is he ends up
being drafted higher than Evans if he signs for Tampa Bay.
Do you think there's issues if he's not getting the
targets like the first few weeks. Do you think that
Antonio Brown is going to be able to live with that?
You know, business is booman Antonio Brown, who's been flashy
(20:22):
throughout the course of his career, is thirty two year
old Antonio Brown gonna be able to live with like
four or five targets a game? Uh No, he will
definitely complain, right and and and that's gonna be so
that is that's definitely. Um. An interesting wrinkle is that
there's just no way he ends up being happy with
four to five targets a game. And we in the
one game that Tom Brady played with Antonio Brown, uh,
(20:45):
he got force fed, right. They They targeted him pretty
much every I think he only played like the snaps
in that uh, that Dolphins game and he ended up
being very very heavily targeted. So you know, I think
there is I think there is room for upside there obviously,
but like in in dynasty leagues, I think that I
would be looking to sell him, like right when he signs,
(21:08):
like maybe try and get one first and you know
some young player like for actually this is a great one.
Antonio Brown signs in Tampa Bay. You have Antonio Brown
on your roster, you have a good roster, but maybe
not the best team in your league. Would you sell
Antonio Brown for in Kiel Harry and a two first
(21:30):
round pick? Yes? I mean if I'm getting a first
round pick for thirty two year old receiver, I'm taking
that alone. Yeah, I I mean I I think that Um,
I think that is probably right. Okay, I want to
I want to head over to the forty niners here
because we actually have not talked about Deebo Samuel's injury
on this show. So he suffered a Jones fracture of
(21:53):
his foot. And you know, Ricky Unit, We've been doing
fantasy sports for a long time, so we are used
to all of these weird injuries. You know, the the
public is not going to be aware of um is
well and you're I guess you were more baseball than
football long term. But basically, for football players, Jones fractures
are terrible. It's like the worst injury you can get
to your foot other than um a Liz Frank injury.
(22:15):
So I I personally didn't love Debo before. I think
I can't draft him at all now. Kind of yeah,
I don't like in a season like this where there's
a lot of uncharity, as is having a guy with
that devastating give an injury heading in a guy who
needs his feet. I mean, I guess you could say
(22:35):
that for every position, but he's not like a giant receiver. Uh.
You know, his ability to cut is huge for Deebo
Samuel and if you can't get your feet under you,
that is an extreme problem in an offense where you're
asked to run after the catch. So I think we
have to start looking at some of these other receivers.
And now you ask yourself of the rookie receivers, is
(22:57):
Brandon Aiyuk now the number one guy to draft? And
if Deebo Samuel is out for some are a majority
of the season, I think there's a legitimate case to
be made. Yeah, like what happens if Deebo Samuel can't
come back? What is that? What is that wide receiver
group end up looking like? I actually think, um, we
can link this to the Antonio Brown discussion. I have
to think that if they get some info that debo is,
(23:21):
you know, not feeling better, not progressing, has some sort
of setback. I have to think that the forty Niners
are an interesting landing spot and and certainly a team
that would be interested in procuring his services, Like for sure, yes, definitely.
I mean they're not a team that's like incredibly committed
to the past, and I think they're okay with George
Kittle leading the team in targets if need be. But
(23:43):
I don't think you can go into a season with
the rest of the group without Deebo Samuel. I mean,
I was a clear missing piece. But if Samuel's not there,
what do you have Kendrick Bourne as your next guy?
I don't think that's enough for Shanahan to kind of
have the offense that he wants to run, which is
a run heavy offense, but he wants to at least
(24:03):
have the illusion that they could be passing at any
given point, and I don't think they're they're receiving duel
would strike enough fear into the heart of defense is
to to kind of keep them honest. Um, do we
do we like jail And heard at all? I know?
I know that jail And heard in our dynasty leagues
that both the quarantine startup and the auction that we
did he liked. Multiple trade offers have been sent out
(24:25):
for Jaalen heard Uh, both to trade for and trade
away at at this um, you know, raised costs. I
actually think if I was doing a startup right now,
if we did another one, he would be a dude.
I would be legitimately targeting well. I think he's got
the size to be someone to look to in the
red zone, that's for sure. At six four. The question
(24:47):
is how much red zone passing is this offense willing
to do, and when they do it, how many of
it's not how much of it's not going to go
to George Kittle on the tight ends. But without Deebo Samuel,
there's has to be legitimate upside to someone else, especially
at the spot that you're gonna be taking them. I
don't know what I see the upside being for heard,
(25:07):
maybe over five touchdowns is the upside at least in
the short term. But a young kid, I see the
appeal to him. It's just a brutal offense to get
anywhere in terms of upside. If you expect I used
to be the number two target, yeah, I don't know
if I expect I used to be the number one target.
(25:27):
I mean, maybe what happens is the running backs take
a bigger role in the passing game. Maybe George Kittle
actually just gets pelted with volume. You know, maybe we
actually see like a hundred and fifty and sixty target
season for George Kittle. That would obviously be massive. Um,
you know, maybe maybe he sees enough volume to actually
score more fantasy points than Travis Kelsey. Know it would
(25:49):
be it would be absurd. You know, we remember that
George Kittle ran really bad on touchdowns last season, so
certainly something to think about. Yeah. I think the forty
miners are so much an interesting team because theoretically they
have all of this efficiency available, but they give so
many different players touches that any consolidation of those touches
ends up making the players they're you know, more valuable.
(26:11):
But We're gonna go ahead and head into break here
on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grid TV.
When we returned, we are going to shift our attention
over to some fantasy football a DP discussion looking at
some risers and followers over the last few weeks in
high stakes drafts. So when we return, we will have
a fantasy football discussion. See you guys on the other
side of break sports grid dot Com Betting insights and
(26:36):
entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the most
important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. M Yeah, this is
(27:02):
Sports Grade. Hello everyone, Welcome back from Break here on
the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davis Mannock joined by Ricky Sanders. We are changing tunes
a little bit today discussing some football news and notes,
as Cam Newton signing with the New England Patriots has
(27:24):
really started to uh make waves in the fantasy football world.
And you know, we have some news on Antonio Brown
and actually I think that we should start this discussion
of fantasy football ADP right there because you know those
those guys are those guys are the new and the brightest,
the shiniest tools, so they're gonna have the biggest jumps
(27:44):
in ADP. Right now, Ricky Antonio Brown is going at
wide receiver forty eight, So he's going just ahead of
guys who are going to get points for sure, in
going ahead of Mike Williams, going ahead of Justin Jefferson,
who I know you really like, going ahead of Anthony Miller,
Curtis Samuel h Do we do we think that these
(28:05):
ADP s are are justified? I think this is still
too early for me. Like, where do you see Antonio
Brown fitting into this offense? There are a lot of
mouths to feed here. I think you need big target
numbers from Mike Evans or Chris Godwin just by default.
I think Rob Bronkowski is gonna factor into this target share.
(28:26):
So how much volume is going to be available for
Antonio Brown once you factor in the receiving backs, whether
it's a Goomba Wally, whether it's Keyshawn Vaughn, whether it's
any of the backs who have to catch their passes
as well. I just don't see how you project Antonio
Brown for a massive target share, Like, even if we're
being generous, what do you think fourteen fifteen percent? How
(28:47):
is he going to get any higher than that on
this offense with all the with all the people surrounding him.
I look at him versus Justin Jefferson, and I see
way less mouths to feed there. It's not gonna be
as past happy of an offense. But we also still
don't know that Tom Brady is still, you know, anywhere
(29:08):
near prime version of Tom Brady. He doesn't have to
be that. But is he thirty touchdown Tom Brady anymore?
And if the answer is no, then you're talking about
possibly the fourth target in an offense that has more
targets than that that legitimately need volume, versus an offense
that really has two main guys in Justin Jefferson, even
(29:28):
though it's not like a high passing offense. I think
this is still too early for Antonio Brown. I like
some of these guys going after him. I like Sterling
Shepherd better, I like Anthony Miller better. I think he's
being drafted at least ten to fifteen spots too early. Yeah,
I you know, I think that, um, I think that
is probably fair so looking at some of the guys
(29:49):
who have really risen in f f PC a DP
over the last couple of weeks, we have a forty
spot jump for Mike Boone. He was basically going undrafted.
Now he's like a really popular selection in the sixteen
nineteenth rounds. And uh, I have to say, I am
on board with this one. Boone has been a guy
(30:10):
that I have liked for a long time. Obviously, a
lot of my teams are looking for upside running backs
later in drafts at at this point, so Boone's upside is,
you know, almost all entirely related to Dalvin Cook either
holding out or getting injured. Um. I also think that
maybe there is some thought, I mean, do we think
it's possible that Boone jumps over Alexander Madison in season? Like?
(30:34):
Do we do we think that is a possibility at
all as the actual handcuff for uh, you know, for
the Vikings. No. I think it's more likely though that
you know, Boon could see a larger role than we're expecting,
which would be the reason for his value and potentially
sneaks in and take some of the goal line work.
Like I think the reason you would draft him here
(30:55):
is because he moved up the totem pole, so there's
only one injury ahead of him. Now, if Dalvin Cook
is out for him to be the guy, and the
potential for him to be like a sixty forty guy,
if Alexander Madison doesn't get used as heavily as we think.
I don't really envision a scenario in which Madison is
so terrible that Boone takes over as the starter, but
(31:17):
I guess it's in the range of possibilities. I just
think it's an extreme long shot. I think I think
it probably is a long shot as well. I do.
I do really like this one though, and I think
that I'm still comfortable drafting Boon like Boone is definitely
a guy that I'm sitting there with my last pick
before I take a kicker in a defense, I feel
good about keeping him there on the bench. The afore
(31:39):
mentioned Brandon Aiyuk now is going as a guy that
you do actually have to spend on, you know, kind
of going in that range of the guys we just
talked about. Um, okay, here's one au or in Kiel Harry. Um,
I think I gotta go Iu. If if this injury
the debo is gonna hold him out for for the
(32:01):
regular for multiple weeks in the regular season. I think
mkil Harry has a chance to ascend. But Mohammedson news
the veteran there and again I was looking at I
forget which beat writer I want to give credit, but
I don't remember who it was projecting the split for
these receivers when they thought it was Stidham. I think
six fifty four yards was the maximum for any of
(32:23):
the receivers in this offense. I think I upside far
exceeds that, and probably with Cam Newton, Harry's upside exceeds
the six fifty four number. But I think I feel
better about the guaranteed volume for I, so I would
take him. I think that, um, I think that one
is probably fair. This is a weird one to me.
(32:45):
Ryan Tannehill is a guy that's drafters are really into,
so he was basically going undrafted before. I think I
see the trend line here though. People were taking Jared
Stidham as their backup quarterback or their third quarterback in
super flex formats, and now you know now that option
has eliminated. Cam Newton obviously is going much much higher
(33:07):
than that. So Tannehill as your second quarterback, you know,
a little bit more expensive these days. I I get it, right,
I I get why you would be interested in Tannehill.
You know a little bit of rushing upside. Obviously was
one of the most efficient deep passers in the NFL
last year. I am I'm not buying it though. No,
(33:27):
I'm not either. I think he's just a guy in
this range. I mean, are you really that upset if
you're waiting around in your backup quarterback? You know, you
pass on Tannehill and then your next options are Kirk Cousins,
who's behind him in a DP. I probably wouldn't want
Garoppolo if there's no um Deebo Samuel, But I'm okay
with some of these next guys. Bridgewater I think has
(33:48):
at least some potential. Minshew probably not. But Drew lock
is a guy who's intriguing to me just because of
the weapons around him. Dwayne Haskins has has a chance
to take the next step. I mean Philip Rivers, Uh,
he hasn't been great, but this is the best offensive
line He's played with it quite sometimes, so I don't
think there's a huge drop off of Tannehill to these guys,
I'm in no hurry to draft Tannehill as my backup
(34:10):
if if this is the alternative. So a guy who
is now jumping up an ADP that I agree with,
you know, I would still select him at current cost
is Curtis Samuel. So last year Samuel was way over price.
You know, you really had to take him in the
seventh round, eighth round, ninth round, you'll, and his price
got more and more expensive as the off season went on.
(34:31):
I think he was really miscast last year. They just
they weren't using him, they weren't giving him carries, they
weren't using him near the line of scrimmage at all,
really only as their their deep burner. And you know,
I I think that this news report that Matt Rule
wants Teddy Bridgewater to be throwing the ball further down
the fields. Uh, you know, I think that's positive for
(34:51):
Curtis Samuel. But I I am drafting pretty much all
Curtis Samuel and like no Robby Anderson this year. I
think I think Robby Anderson will u I think Curtis
Samuel will out target and outplay Curtis Samuel this year.
And I think Anderson's signing has done a world of
wonders for Curtis Samuel. Are we still taking him you
know there and around pick Yeah, I'm completely fine with that.
(35:14):
I don't think the Robbie Anderson skill set translates very
well to Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy Bridgewater is a guy who
you want to hit the guys with slants. I mean,
he showed to be an accurate passer last year with
New Orleans, but he was still like over a six
completion guy during his days in Minnesota. So it's not like,
you know, the over sixty percent completion is something new.
(35:37):
Obviously it was taken to New Heights with with Mike Thomas,
which you would expect, but I don't think you know
the long like you said, they have to force this
guy to throw the ball down the field. So the
guys who are just the deep threats are not are
not going to be fed constantly. Like if Robbie Anderson
has a big leak, it's gonna be few and far between.
He is your prototypical best ball guy, but he's gonna
(35:59):
be a guy who's just hard to own in seasonal
leagues because of how inconsistent he's gonna be, whereas Curtis
Samuel and d J. Moore could be legitimate volume guys,
both of them. So I think if you're in a
PPR league, Curtis Samuel definitely could be undervalued and he
could see some additional volume with a guy who could
get him the ball in the short field, which was
not the Cam Newton specialty. So very similarly, a guy
(36:23):
who we would really prefer in best ball, I am,
I am, I am pretty much all the way out
on Henry Ruggs where he's going right now about on overall,
so you know, to give you a sense of guys
you could select instead of Henry Ruggs, Antonio Brown that
we just talked about before, Um, Preston Williams, Sterling Shepherd,
Anthony Miller. I like all these guys. I think I
(36:43):
would even take and Kiel Harry over Henry Ruggs, who
legitimately is going forty picks later. Um, I Henry Ruggs
at wide receiver forty six. I am not on board
for this trend at all. No me neither. It's like
people don't realize that Henry Ruggs was not the only
offensive weapon drafted here. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Wallera still there.
(37:04):
You've got Lynn Bowden, You've got Brian Edwards, You've got
a bunch of guys who were brought into this offense.
I don't know why the market seems to assume that
he's going to be the top guy of these rookies
when you looked at he's being drafted ahead of Justin
Jefferson and Brandon Ayuk in you know, recent days. I
don't know how these people are handicapping it that way,
like what kind of target share and how many yards
(37:26):
per target must you be projecting Henry Ruggs to have
him ahead of those guys. I would be shocked if
Justin Jefferson did not out target Henry Ruggs by double
digits this year. I mean that would legitimately shocked me.
And so because I have them projected as such, I
think this is a market miss price. And I think
Henry Ruggs inside the top one hundred is that this
(37:49):
is that you know where he's been taking at the
max average one twenty probably twenty picks too early for me.
So a group of quarterbacks, all of these guys have
jumped up about fifteen spots over the last couple of days,
Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, and Drew Brees. Of
of those four guys or any of them, you know,
(38:11):
core parts of your strategy. I don't know about core
parts of my strategy, but Baker Mayfield is a guy
certainly warming on as we go on. I think you've
got the coach there who wants to establish the run,
but being able to you know, kind of focus on
the run more so and have a very effective run
game is gonna open it up for Baker Mayfield, who
(38:33):
now has you know, the extra target in Austin Hooper there. Uh,
they drafted you know, Donovan People's Jones, they have Kareem
Hunt for a full season. Now. I think there's enough
talent around him, even in more of a run centric offense,
that Baker Mayfield could just be more effective on a
perth row basis where you don't need like insane volume
and he can still have a productive fantasy season. So
(38:55):
I continue to warm on Baker Mayfield just the Browns
in general. Yeah, I I am in on the Browns
being better this season. I think, you know, basically everything
was just chaos last year, and I think there should
be overall less chaos going on this season, So we
are going to go ahead and had to break here
on the Daily road To Hour on Sports Grade TV.
(39:18):
When we return, we were actually gonna go through my
list of second year wide receiver breakouts and see if
we can find any guys who we are really really
in on or if we can cross them off of
our draft list. So see you guys in just a
few minutes. On the other side of break sports grid
dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
(39:40):
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Daily
road to Hour Here on sports Gride TV. I'm Davis
Mannick joined by Ricky Sanders. Were having a fantasy football
(40:03):
discussion today, ran through the Cam Newton News, ran through
some Antonio Brown rumblings that he might be returning to
the NFL signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and now
delving into some potential breakouts. So, Ricky, if you remember
last year, uh it seems like a lot of people
are are wanting to do a revisionist history on what
(40:24):
they believed about DJ Shark. You know that everyone saw
his breakoutcoming. You know, everyone's ready for DJ Shark to crush,
and it's just not the case. Right. He was basically
going uh with with a forgotten pick in the fantasy
drafts in twenty nineteen after a rookie year where he
played in eleven games, was targeted thirty two times, caught
fourteen passes, a hundred and seventy four receiving yards, zero touchdowns.
(40:47):
But was you know, a big part of our strategy
at Rhodo Experts and sports Grid last year as a
target And so I thought, you know, an interesting idea
for an article on sports Grid would be to look
at some potential guys who might be the version of
DJ Shark where they have a disappointing rookie season and
then really break out as a second year player. So
(41:08):
the first guy we've talked about him a bunch here
on the show today, I think the most obvious answer
is going to be in Keel Harry because the reason
he didn't play as a rookie was due to injury.
You know, not really poor performance, and he does have
a much better quarterback situation now with Cam Newton in there.
Do you do you think that the answer to the
question of who is the version of d J Shark
(41:29):
is just pretty simply in Keel Harry. I think he's
the closest thing. And I want to start by saying
I was not one of the people taking the victory
lap on DJ Shark. I was pretty heavily invested in
D D. Westbrook and I love both of them. Yeah,
and and and yeah didn't quite work out. Yeah, I
thought that he was Nick Foles, this guy, and then
we got like one week of Nick Foles. I took
(41:50):
a gigantic l in most of my league's. Luckily, there
was an auction league where I did get out bit
on him and I won the super Bowl in that league,
So I kind of saved race for all my leagues
because the other ones took some monster monster hits with
with an early DJ or d D. Westbrook pick. But
nikkil Harry seems like the obvious guy, right because Cam
(42:10):
Newton wants to throw to those outside receivers. I think
I just don't think, uh, there's gonna be consistent enough
volume for a guy like Julian Edelman to be the
top guy with him like there was with Tom Brady.
It's just very different skill sets. Cam Newton, even when
he was healthy, was often the the guy who would
would throw high. You'd be watching a game and you'd
just be like, how do you how can you not
(42:31):
make that throw as a as a professional quarterback? And
then he's got these big outside receivers and he can
just loft the ball to them and they can go
up and get it. And so I think Nikkil Harry
fits the skill set of what will suit Cam Newton.
And yeah, I mean he was kind of a nothing
last year, But what are the alternatives? I mean, Julian
Edelman is very old for a guy who is does
(42:53):
not have big size, and I mean, at some point
it's got to be the end for him. Mohammed Sunu
is in the latter day of his career and there's
just not much Elsier. You've got some rookie tight ends, uh,
some of which you know, we've heard people say that
these might not even be you know, the greatest of
receiving tight ends that they fell into. I mean, Assisi
is a pretty big dude. So it's hard to imagine
(43:15):
he runs extremely well. Uh, Nikkio Harry may fall into
being the top target in this offense by default. We
went over it with Cam Newton thinking that it's a
possibility that this offense is just you know, a bunch
of guys doing some are putting up similar numbers. But
there's also a chance that Nikkil Harry is just the
most talented at this point in his career and Cam
Newton needs a guy and the two of them are
(43:37):
just a match made in heaven. Yeah, I I agree
with you. I think that the likely answer to this
question is going to be in Kiel Harry. But we
do have some other guys on this list. Paris Campbell
is another guy because he really shouldn't have any competition.
You know, I don't think Pittman really is going to
be ready to go from week one, right, I should
say I would be surprised if Michael Pittman is ready
(43:58):
to go week one, obviously, t Y Hilton, you know,
now he's thirty one years old, coming off of an
injury filled season where he just had a bunch of
lower body injuries. You know, I don't think it would
be surprising that he is certainly on the downward trend
of his career. And you know, Frank Reich is super
positive about all these guys. He loves to say positive
things about literally every player on his roster. But what
(44:19):
he said about Paris Campbell is that he's super pumped
about his upside. That they didn't get to see enough
of him last year because of he was injured. But
you know, it was really complimentary about the way he's
been going through things this offseason. And I actually think
that Campbell is a really ideal replacement for t Y Hilton.
And if Campbell played, you know, kind of a Keenan
(44:40):
Alan Ask role in this offense, where t Y Hilton
turned into the Mike Williams, you know, getting those down
the field targets, Campbell works more in the intermediate area.
I could actually see him out targeting t Y Hilton
this season. Now, granted, you know, that's a top fifty
outcome or something like that after only playing in seven
games as a rookie. But you know, I think Campbell
(45:02):
does have some pretty tangible upside there. Uh. It's hard
to look at a guy who ran a four three forty,
which is the hundred percentile. Uh, he has a seven
percentile speed score and percentile first score. And not say
there's upside there. I mean people who haven't really looked
into Paris Campbell might not be able to see, like
(45:23):
why this is a guy who should be drafted. His
best comparable skill set is Santana Moss according to play
at player profile dot com, who was another guy who
was just a pure speedster. And if t Y Hilton
has lost the ability to be that guy in this offense,
I do think with Philip Rivers there's there's a possibility
that people are overvaluing Pittman's ability to just step right
(45:45):
in in the season where there's not too much you know,
offseason work together with the quarterback, and if this guy
can can really get past the defense. I mean Philip
Rivers was still willing to throw the ball downfield. I
mean Mike Williams was just the downfield guy who happened
to have some serious size as well. But Paris Campbell's
a guy who can beat a defender on any given play,
(46:07):
And so I think a thousand plus yards is within
the range of outcomes. In fact, I don't think it's
like a crazy outcome. I think it's like a seventy
percentile outcome, and there's actually more to it than that,
and Paris Cambell not being drafted as such, So I
think that's actually a really sharp guy to be on
when the masses are going to fluctuate towards either t
Y Hilton, who's the old you know, the older dude
(46:29):
who's who's tiny, who's losing speed as he goes on,
and the new shiny toy like you mentioned in Michael Pittman,
who was a very good college receiver. But you know,
Paris Campbell's still here, he is, he is still there.
Uh A name, a name, you know, only I think
they're not very many Andy Isabella Truthers left. In fact,
when I wrote this article on sports Grid, he had
(46:51):
not been drafted once in a Football Guys Players Championship
over the last four days, so in the article, his
ADP is listed as undrafted. I actually have a theory
for why Andy Isabella did not play as a rookie
as much. You know why Keyshawn Johnson, Farall Cooper, Max Williams,
Demure Bird, all these guys were out snapping Isabella, and uh,
(47:11):
you know, it's because he played at the University of Massachusetts. Right,
he was literally playing like, uh, the lowest level of
D one football you can play, and just maybe he
wasn't ready, right, maybe he didn't understand the terminology, you know,
really was taking a long time to get up to speed.
I just I I feel like even with his clear
physical gifts of you know, how fast he is, um,
(47:32):
I think that there were real reasons why he did
not play as a rookie last year. But he should have,
you know, enough, he should have enough in the locker
to get on the field. Even with the DeAndre Hopkins
trade this season. Yeah, I was gonna say, I have
one reason why I'm not overly excited about him this year,
and that's DeAndre Hopkins, Who's gonna have to take a
giant share of of the targets because I mean, Larry
(47:56):
Fitzgerald is still there and it's still a possession receiver.
But I think DeAndre Hopkins, you know, was brought in
to be the true number one, and then you have
Christian Kirk and you just don't have a lot of volume.
I don't think even if this offense is going to
be the fastest paced offense in the league, which is
certainly possible, they weren't last year. But I think they
have the opportunity to to speed it up to just
(48:19):
be the offensive juggernaut that we thought they would be.
And if that's the case, you know, you could see
four receivers being worth drafting. Um, that's that's within the
range of outcomes. But I mean, you look at last
year with this team. Uh, they did run a ton
of plays, but the fact that he didn't get on
(48:41):
the field worries me. I just what, what are you
projecting in four in terms of targets share? I mean,
is there any way he gets over seven percent? You think,
obviously you do if you're drafting him, But I'm just
looking at the other options on this offense and I
don't see it. I mean, a fifty nine point four
plays per game was below the league average for for
the Cardinals. We did not expect with them. So even
(49:02):
if we think, you know, he does anything near his
college uh pace with this team, I just don't see it.
So he's gotta he's gotta overtake Larry Fitzgerald. That that's
what he has to play over Larry Fitzgerald. That's that's
how it happens, right. They just say Larry thanks for
your time. You're you're great. Um, we just don't want
we just don't want to have you playing all these snaps.
(49:24):
That that's how it happens basically. Yeah, okay, I think
I think this name is super sneaky. Uh Miles Boykin. Right,
So everyone keeps talking about, you know, uh, they signing
all these players, you know, Antonio Brown, like, you know
the the he's had those he's had those workouts. Uh.
Lamar Jackson has posted those workouts with Antonio Brown. But
(49:47):
what if they don't sign anyone? And Miles Boykin kind
of replaces those Hayden her snaps and you know he's
playing over Jalil Scott and Chris Moore and Willie's need.
Why can't Miles boy can catch h eight touchdowns? This
here tell me why? Well, they did commit to, you know,
drafting some receivers in this draft. First of all, Devin
(50:08):
Duvernet and James Proach with pick what was at two
oh one, So they did draft multiple receivers, which makes
me think they weren't incredibly comfortable. But if you're asking me,
you know, if you're telling me to tell you that
he can't do it. I was on Boykin last year
as a guy who I thought could be a sneaky
piece in that Ravens offense. Obviously, Marquis Brown turned out
(50:30):
to be the king of the sneakiness, the number one
option in that passing game along with Mark Andrews. So
I don't I don't know. We talked about it. We
think they're going to be in more competitive games this
year where they don't have to or they won't be
running as much where you know, I think Mark Andrews
is gonna get more targets if that's the case, for sure,
but some of it's gonna have to go to the receivers.
(50:51):
The question is Devin Duverney, how ready is he because
he's a guy who could catch a ton of passes
out of the slot, and if he's ready to go
and if he has a role, I just don't see
the volume for Boykin if they're not ready to kind of,
you know, commit to any sort of volume for a
guy like DuVernay. Marquis Brown was a guy who was
more of like a down the field dude. So I think,
(51:13):
you know, in the red zone, if you're looking for
another guy, Boykin makes a ton of sense. Yeah, I
I really, I really think that uh, I really think
that he does. I I'm pretty high on him. We're
getting a little short here on time, so I'll give
my soliloquy on J j R. Sega white Side, which
is I mean, none of these guys were more disappointing
than J j R. Sega Whiteside. The Eagles got about
(51:34):
three quarters out of de Shawn Jackson. They were so
desperate they were playing literally, they were playing Deonte Burnett
and Richard Rogers as pass catchers in the playoffs, they
needed wide receivers, and our Sega Whiteside was getting out
snapped by Greg Ward, who is a converted college quarterback
who has bounced around practice squads the NFL. So this
is terrible. This is all basically like our Sega white
(51:55):
Side can't play um and and my only argument for
him is he was a great prospect, you know, broke
out before dominator rating his final season at Stanford, crushed
the combine, and Carson Wentz is a good quarterback. This
is a productive NFL offense. So wouldn't take him in
best ball because you need the ability to cut him.
(52:15):
But in the football, guys players championship in some of
those other high stakes leagues. I do think that there
are reasons to, you know, take a few stabs on
him here and there. So everyone, thank you very much
for watching and listening to the daily road to hour
here on Sports Grade TV. This has been Davis Maddock
and Ricky Sanders. When we return tomorrow, we will be
changing tunes once again, heading back over to Major League
(52:39):
Baseball to do our team by team and division by
division preview. We've already covered the American League, so when
you tune in tomorrow, we will be going through the
National League team divisions. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights
and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
(53:00):
betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge than
get on the grid. Sports grid dot Com m
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
listen live, all you have to do is download the
I Heart Radio app and search for Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Also,
if you want to catch this show on video, for
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Enjoy the show and thanks so much for listening. Hello everyone,
(00:21):
and welcome to the Daily Roado Hour here on Sports
Grid TV. I'm Davis Mannock, joined today by Ricky Sanders.
We are again changing stream on you guys because we've
had some we have had some big news come down
the NFL pipelines. So we're gonna start the show today
with Cam Newton's signing. We will continue our MLB team
(00:42):
by team, division by division by division preview tomorrow, but
we we have to talk you know, really, I think
the biggest sporting news that we've had in terms of
player movement over the last few weeks. So just just
right away here, Ricky, do we think Cam Newton is
a good fit in New England? Do we think he's
likely to outperform Jared Stidham in so I think those
(01:06):
are two very different questions. Whether he's a good fit,
and whether he can outperform Jared's Stidham. I think the
answer of Canny outperformed Jared Stidham is is he remotely healthy?
I mean, if we see anything close to a healthy
Cam Newton, it's impossible to say that his upside does
not far exceed that of Jared's Stidham. But you look
(01:29):
at those numbers from last year, and you had there
was nothing you could do but look at them and
say there was not a healthy Cam Newton. Davis, how
many scrambles do you think Cam Newton was credited for
last year's just showing how unhealthy his lower body was.
How many do you think he actually officially was was
(01:49):
given credit for according to Pro Football Focus. So I
remember in that Thursday night Tampa Bay game, Uh, they
were they had the ability to win the game there
at the end, I think it was it was fourth
and one, right they so they they were fourth and goal,
rather they were on like the one or two yard line.
And remember they called that weird like swing play to
(02:11):
Christian McCaffrey to try and get him up the edge.
And basically you're sitting there going Cam Newton is you know,
really the best goal line back in the NFL right now, Like,
I don't know, if there's one other player, I would say, Okay,
we're on the two yard line. We have to score
on this play. Cam go and get the touchdown. And
they didn't even think about calling that play. So my
(02:32):
guess is he literally had zero scrambles in those two games.
I would literally put the number at zero very close.
You couldn't be closer one scramble in those in those games,
which is crazy when you think that Newton was a
guy who, you know, early in his career was approaching
fifty scrambles in a season. So obviously we didn't see
(02:54):
a healthy Cam Newton last year. I think there were
lower body and upper body issues. But I've seen, you know,
Twitter say that they gave him this, like you know,
this tiny deal that's incentive late in Like how can
you give him the reins instead of jared'stid him? Like
how can you look at that contract? And I think
it's well, let him go out and earn the incentives
(03:14):
and let's see what he's got. I don't see how
you start, you know, Jared Stidham over Newton. We expected
them to sign one of these guys who was available
off the street, whether it was him or jamis it
just so happened Newton is the one who landed there.
I think this is a fit in the sense that
does Bill Belichick want to win games? Okay, let's use
someone who has some experience. Yeah, I think that's reasonable.
(03:37):
I think, you know, just wanting basically wanting Bill Belichick
to have a quarterback who has played more games, has
played big games. And you know, we we kind of
discussed this on the show back after the NFL Draft,
where we thought, you know, maybe they take Jalen Hurts,
maybe they select a quarterback later in the draft, and
they didn't use any of those picks. Then Andy Dalton
signs with the Cowboys and we are thinking, okay, well, well,
(03:58):
what is the plan. Are they really gonna go with
Jared Stidham? And I think now we have seen that
the answer to that question is no. I I would
imagine the Patriots plan is to go with Cam Newton
from day one. And you know why I'm into that
is basically, over the last two years, Cam has had
a Liz Frank injury to his foot. That was what
happened last year in eighteen he was having problems with
(04:21):
his shoulder. Now they really changed the way that the
Panthers offense worked in twenty eighteen. Every year of Cam's
career he had been below a sixty one completion percentage
quarterback for his career fifty nine point six percent. But
in seventy one passing attempts in fourteen games, he completes
(04:42):
sixty seven point nine percent of his passes. His yards
per passe attempt was seven point two, his adjusted yards
per pass attempt was seven. But also in that season,
you know Cam's rushing, uh, it was still there in eighteen,
but he only averaged four point eight yards per carry,
only ran for four touchdowns. I think basically what we
can take away is Cam really hasn't been healthy since seventeen.
(05:05):
You go back and look at seventeen, you're like, Okay,
the Panthers go eleven and five. Cam completes about fifty
percent of his passes. Uh, he had a hundred and
thirty nine rushing attempts for seven hundred and fifty four
yards there. I think that all of this time off,
you know, Cam literally is not played in a game
since Week two of twenty nineteen. I think you just
(05:26):
have to assume the Patriots believe that a full bill
of health, Cam Newton is like, you know, he's actually
probably ready to be a super Bowl winning quarterback for them,
and they could. They probably even want to play him
more in that Panthers style where he's making a lot
of quick throws throwing to the running backs a lot,
as opposed to that more high variant style that he
(05:46):
played in Carolina for so long. Completely agree with that take.
It's like what Tom Brady turned into in his elder days,
which is, you know, you've got James White, You've got
Julian Edelman, You've got all these guys who could find
in the short field. You know, let those guys go
out and make plays. It was basically what San Francisco did.
They didn't force Jimmy Garoppolo to be like the absolute
(06:09):
guy on their offense. They they established the run and
they they relied on short passing and if they had
to punt, you rely on your defense. I think the
Patriots trust their defense. So you just find a guy
with any semblance of upside where he can make the
throw downfield if need be uh and he can scramble
for you, and he just gives you, you know, a
few additional aspects that Jared'stidham just doesn't. I don't know
(06:31):
if you know. The signing of Cam Newton changes this
this Patriots team into one of the top five teams
in terms of you know, the ones that i'd have, uh,
you know, interested in betting to make the Super Bowl.
But it certainly makes them more competitive. And Bill Belichick
has been quoted in the past is saying, you know,
the quarterbacks who run just give you that added dimension.
He hasn't really had that, So I'm interested to see
(06:52):
how that sort of works into the offense. Well and
you know, so you look at Jared's did him and
you say, okay, what would the Patriots plan have in
with him? And it would have been for him to
run a little bit. It would have been for them
to have that really run heavy offense where they probably
have some designed quarterback runs. Maybe they put in some
options style stuff in the offense, you know, some of
(07:12):
that r p O, like like really run pass options.
It's very hard to do with Tom Brady as your
quarterback because he just is not mobile enough to make
those plays work. I think even a Cam Newton that
is not getting a ton of designed runs. I think
it's probably still likely that he is one of the
better quarterbacks that creating space inside of the pocket, even
(07:34):
if he doesn't have to, you know, actually break the
pocket all that often. So I think that the Patriots
plans would not have to change that much with Cam
Newton over Jared Stidham. It's just that the quarterback they
will have running all of those plays is much better.
And uh, I I saw this extremely funny tweet this week.
You know about this situation, which is that last year
(07:57):
in practice, Jared Stidham was throwing passes in a number
fifty eight Jersey Ricky. Uh like a like a gunners
number Jersey. So I I I sort of think that
the Patriots playing this whole time was to get Cam Newton,
get Andy Dalton, get Nick Foles, you know, kind of whoever,
whoever that veteran quarterback must have been. I I am
now of the opinion that the Patriots were never going
(08:19):
in Week one with Jared Stidham. Yeah. I believe that too.
And now the question becomes, how do you handicap this
receiving corps? Because I was looking back and it's like,
what receiver has really taken off under Cam Newton other
than Kelvin Benjamin. Even DJ Moore really didn't take off
under Cam Newton. You look at last year in the
(08:40):
few games he averaged fewer Fantasy foods, and I know
it was an injured version of Newton. Uh, you know
with Cam Newton that he did with the rest of
the the bums, I think we can safely call them
that the team had to throw out there. You know,
with Cam Newton hurt. So I mean DJ Moore was
primed for a breakout season probably regardless of who was
throwing him the football. But the question is Newton better
(09:04):
suited to you know, is there gonna be enough volume
in the in the short field like we saw Kim
was throwing shorter the last full season. Is there gonna
be enough volume for Julian Edelman that you don't adjust him.
I feel like we have to adjust him downwards. I
don't think Cam's specialty is throwing in that short field.
And then the question becomes like who is his guy
(09:26):
on the outside, And it's between the Kiel Harry and
Mohammed's a new and I've been drafted Mohammed's new late
in league. So I continue to believe in him, but
I still think this wide receiving cores a mess, and
I think it's possible we like don't get any of
these guys above seven yards and it's just kind of
a spread the field offense again. So I I completely
(09:48):
agree with you, Edelman. I think loses out the most
in this offensive shift from Tom Brady. You know, those
quick throws, reading the blitz, getting it out, you know,
trying to beat zone a lot of the time. And
you know, it's very hard to play zone against running
quarterbacks because they will they will just take off and
go right. It's it's much harder. It's much harder to
(10:08):
defend running quarterbacks against zone coverage. And I I just
wrote an article on sports grade dot com yesterday about
breakout second year wide receivers of you know, the guys
who sucked the rookie years so and Kiel, Harry j
j R. Sigal Whiteside, Andy Isabella, Paris Campbell, Myles Boykin.
You know, all these guys who were drafted in the
top one d picks didn't end up breaking out last season,
(10:31):
which is crazy because the wide receiver class was, you know,
just full of all these guys who broke out. And
the conclusion I came away with is I think Harry
is gonna end up being the big winner here. If
you look at the way and Kiel Harry played in college,
and the way Calvin Benjamin played in college, and Kelvin
Benjamin is really the only wide receiver that Cam Newton
ever made better. And I think the reason why he
(10:53):
was able to make Cam Newton better is it was
just a really good stylistic fit. Cam is never gonna
be this hyper accurate ass or who's tearing down defenses
making centimeter perfect throws, but he can break the pocket
he does have, you know, just this absolute cannon of
an arm downfield. Um, he's gonna put it in a
spot where only the wide receiver can win in contested
(11:13):
cat situations. I am super interested in drafting and Kill
Harry in my drafts later on this year. You know,
I think he is kind of that perfect best ball
wide receiver to take in rounds fifteen, sixteen, seventeen, because
he's not gonna get cut. You know, you know, Isabella
are second whiteside, Those guys can end up getting cut.
But and Kill Harry is going to be a starting
(11:34):
wide receiver Week one for the Patriots. How many receivers
you think have had seventy receptions with Cam Newton. It's
it's should just be Steve Smith and Calvin Benjamin. I
don't think anyone else has. Steve Smith is the entire answer.
Steve Smith seventy three receptions and seventy nine receptions in
two seasons. Otherwise, it's a lot of Greg Olsen and
(11:55):
Christian McCaffrey towards the top of the reception leaders with
Cam Newton. You look at the thousand yard receivers with
Cam Newton, Steve Smith Jr. Did it twice, Greg Olsen
did it once, and that's it. Then the next best
season was Greg Olson two yards. Next best season Calvin
Benjamin one. So if you're looking for like a wide
receiver one to emerge from this offense, I think you're
(12:19):
looking at the rock offense. Yeah, that that's true. And
and you know, I kind of think that Josh McDaniel,
this is a perfect situation for him. You know, basically
we remember Josh mcdd you know, he loved he loved Tebow, right,
that was his guy, And and Cam Newton does kind
of everything that Tebow does. He does it way better,
you know, better runner, better pass, or just overall a
(12:41):
better player. So I have to think that McDaniel is
very excited about this signing. We are going to go
ahead and head into break here on the Daily Road
To Hour on Sports Grade TV. When we return, we're
going to turn over the other NFL news that is
happening as uh as time continues to pass while all
of us are here in COVID nineteen lockdown, gonna discuss
a little bit of Antonio Brown, a little bit of
(13:05):
the Indianapolis Colts, and uh, We're gonna just go ahead
and keep the NFL news train rolling heading into our
first break here on the Daily Road to hours. See
you guys on the other side in just a little bit.
Sports grid dot Com betting insides and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
(13:28):
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back from
break here on sports grid TV. This is the Daily
Road To Hour with Davis Maddock joined by Ricky Sanders.
Today this is our NFL News Update show, taking a
(13:48):
break from our MLB team by team, division by division preview.
The Cam Newton signing was discussed heavily in the first segment,
and now we are going to kind of go around
the league with some small and fell news updates, though
I guess this first rumor that we're getting is not
particularly small. Michael Lombardi of The Athletic has reported that
he's heard rumors linking Antonio Brown to the Buccaneers. Um
(14:12):
Pat McAfee has reported this as well, that he's hearing, uh,
some rumors that Antonio Brown might be heading to the Buccaneers.
Kind of makes sense in one way. The Buccaneers don't
have a good third wide receiver, you know, it's it's
Justin Watson, Scottie Miller. They lost Brashod Perryman in free agency.
Now we know that historically those teams have played, you know,
(14:35):
Bruce arians and Tom Brady offenses have played a ton
of twelve personnel. So O J. Howard pretty capable third
guy out there with Rob Gronkowski and even Cameron brad
But I mean, just just starting here, do we buy it, Ricky,
Do we think that Antonio Brown? Uh? Is gonna play
in the NFL. In overall, let's just start there. What
what would you make the line of Antonio Brown playing
(14:56):
in the NFL in I still think he's the longest
shot to play. And do I buy it? Versus am
I happy about it? Are two different arguments we can
talk about. You know, Bruce Arians saying that there was
no way that Antonio Brown was gonna come over. But
I still think if I were handicapping it, it'd be
like plus two hundred plus two fifty for Antonio Brown
(15:19):
to play in the NFL this season. But that being said,
if it turns out that Bruce Arians is not the
one calling the shots anymore, I mean, you look at
the game that Antonio Brown played with the Patriots last year.
Brady was obviously happy to have him. They forced fed
him the ball eight targets in one game. Uh, they
found him in the end zone. They obviously wouldn't have
(15:41):
to do that now because they have a full offense
full of guys who need the ball, uh and should
have the ball, by the way. So I think Antonio Brown,
you know, he got his game back with Brady and
now he'd just be a part of the offense but
I still think it's the underdog here. Maybe you disagree
with me. I don't know. There's just been so much
going on with Antonio Brown. It's hard to assume that
(16:02):
he just got his head right. So I don't even
know if his head is right. But these are these
to me are why he is going to be playing
so first, and I think most importantly, uh, he is
currently not facing any charges in court for anything he
uh whatever. I don't remember the exact specifics of what
he ended up being charged with last season that, you know,
(16:25):
in just in the middle of all that chaos with
the Patriots after he got cut, you know, there was
that report that the police showed up at his house
and he was charged with, um, you know, some kind
of assault charge. But he got sentence two hundred hours
of community service. I believe he might be on probation. Uh,
not not sure on that. But he's not not facing
any new charges, you know, not under arrest, not in jail.
(16:45):
So right away, I think, you know, you can make
an argument as an NFL team who wants to sign
Antonio Brown. You can be like, well, why is he
on the commissioner's exemple list? You know, he's not facing
any criminal charges, he hasn't done anything wrong, so on
and so fourth uh, and then we just know that
Tom Brady likes him, right, He made all these Instagram
posts about him. He was on his side. He he
(17:06):
made that. He made that Instagram post about saying, you know,
Antonio Brown, you can sleep on my couch, you can
come over, you can you can be at my house.
So we know that tom Brady wants him to play there.
And I think my opinion is tom Brady just wants
to play with as many elite players as possible because
he wants to shove it to the Patriots. He wants
to be like, you guys thought I was done. You
(17:28):
guys didn't spend money to get me what I needed.
You know, weren't spending enough picks on offensive players, weren't
setting me up to succeed. And I think it's pretty
likely that Tom Brady is making some of the decisions there,
or or at least if he's not making the decisions,
he is saying, look, guys, I leverage my whole career.
You know this is this has the chance to go
really bad for me. People are not gonna like it's
(17:49):
not gonna be fun for people to remember me flaming
out here in Tampa Bay. You guys have to do
right by me, And I think if Tom wants Antonio Brown,
tom is gonna get Antonio Brown. Yeah. The thing here
is and it bugs me a little and honestly might
not even be Bruce arians fault, but for some reason,
with like these signings where a team says they have
(18:09):
absolutely no interest in Bruce Arians specifically says he did,
it's a different sort of coach speak to me, and
it irks me a little bit because I just want
to you know, it's not like there's a huge market
for Antonio Brown where you need to be like, uh,
you know, showing the market that you're not interested so
you can get a better deal on him, etcetera, etcetera.
But it just irks me a bit in the age
of fake news when a coach says like, we have
(18:31):
no interest and then they go and sign a guy,
Whereas I like have a tolerance for you know, there's
a good chance this guy isn't playing, and then he
plays because you know, at least with a superlative you
can you can kind of read under the lines like Okay,
this coaches, is trying to mislead the other team. But
why trying to mislead you know, the public and a
guy that really doesn't have much interest because of the
(18:54):
way he's acted over the course of the last year.
So that's just irked me a little bit. Maybe that's
a personal problem for me, And maybe it wasn't even
Arian's fault. Maybe it was the fact that they, you know,
signed Brady and Brady is like, okay, I'm taking over,
and Ari's just has no saying it. But you know,
I thought it was an interesting fit from the start,
and Arians mixed it and apparently it's it's obviously still
(19:15):
on the table. Yeah, it is still on the table,
and I I think that is important, right because you know,
right now, if you're doing Bestball drafts, Antonio Brown goes
in eleven twelve, thirteenth round. You know, we did that
um quarantine startup draft. I took Antonio Brown, I think
in the fourteenth round. I'm not exactly sure, but you know,
(19:37):
for for me personally, it is going to be a
net positive if Antonio Brown is signed. You know, I
have enough invested in him at appropriate cost, and I'm
definitely rooting for him to sign. I think the interesting
thing is the moment he signed Ricky, he is going
to be overvalued, um, because especially in Tampa Bay. I
I think that if he signed to Tampa Bay, I
(19:59):
would still actually project him third in target share behind
Evans and Godwin. And my guess is he ends up
being drafted higher than Evans if he signs for Tampa Bay.
Do you think there's issues if he's not getting the
targets like the first few weeks. Do you think that
Antonio Brown is going to be able to live with that?
You know, business is booman Antonio Brown, who's been flashy
(20:22):
throughout the course of his career, is thirty two year
old Antonio Brown gonna be able to live with like
four or five targets a game? Uh No, he will
definitely complain, right and and and that's gonna be so
that is that's definitely. Um. An interesting wrinkle is that
there's just no way he ends up being happy with
four to five targets a game. And we in the
one game that Tom Brady played with Antonio Brown, uh,
(20:45):
he got force fed, right. They They targeted him pretty
much every I think he only played like the snaps
in that uh, that Dolphins game and he ended up
being very very heavily targeted. So you know, I think
there is I think there is room for upside there obviously,
but like in in dynasty leagues, I think that I
would be looking to sell him, like right when he signs,
(21:08):
like maybe try and get one first and you know
some young player like for actually this is a great one.
Antonio Brown signs in Tampa Bay. You have Antonio Brown
on your roster, you have a good roster, but maybe
not the best team in your league. Would you sell
Antonio Brown for in Kiel Harry and a two first
(21:30):
round pick? Yes? I mean if I'm getting a first
round pick for thirty two year old receiver, I'm taking
that alone. Yeah, I I mean I I think that Um,
I think that is probably right. Okay, I want to
I want to head over to the forty niners here
because we actually have not talked about Deebo Samuel's injury
on this show. So he suffered a Jones fracture of
(21:53):
his foot. And you know, Ricky Unit, We've been doing
fantasy sports for a long time, so we are used
to all of these weird injuries. You know, the the
public is not going to be aware of um is
well and you're I guess you were more baseball than
football long term. But basically, for football players, Jones fractures
are terrible. It's like the worst injury you can get
to your foot other than um a Liz Frank injury.
(22:15):
So I I personally didn't love Debo before. I think
I can't draft him at all now. Kind of yeah,
I don't like in a season like this where there's
a lot of uncharity, as is having a guy with
that devastating give an injury heading in a guy who
needs his feet. I mean, I guess you could say
(22:35):
that for every position, but he's not like a giant receiver. Uh.
You know, his ability to cut is huge for Deebo
Samuel and if you can't get your feet under you,
that is an extreme problem in an offense where you're
asked to run after the catch. So I think we
have to start looking at some of these other receivers.
And now you ask yourself of the rookie receivers, is
(22:57):
Brandon Aiyuk now the number one guy to draft? And
if Deebo Samuel is out for some are a majority
of the season, I think there's a legitimate case to
be made. Yeah, like what happens if Deebo Samuel can't
come back? What is that? What is that wide receiver
group end up looking like? I actually think, um, we
can link this to the Antonio Brown discussion. I have
to think that if they get some info that debo is,
(23:21):
you know, not feeling better, not progressing, has some sort
of setback. I have to think that the forty Niners
are an interesting landing spot and and certainly a team
that would be interested in procuring his services, Like for sure, yes, definitely.
I mean they're not a team that's like incredibly committed
to the past, and I think they're okay with George
Kittle leading the team in targets if need be. But
(23:43):
I don't think you can go into a season with
the rest of the group without Deebo Samuel. I mean,
I was a clear missing piece. But if Samuel's not there,
what do you have Kendrick Bourne as your next guy?
I don't think that's enough for Shanahan to kind of
have the offense that he wants to run, which is
a run heavy offense, but he wants to at least
(24:03):
have the illusion that they could be passing at any
given point, and I don't think they're they're receiving duel
would strike enough fear into the heart of defense is
to to kind of keep them honest. Um, do we
do we like jail And heard at all? I know?
I know that jail And heard in our dynasty leagues
that both the quarantine startup and the auction that we
did he liked. Multiple trade offers have been sent out
(24:25):
for Jaalen heard Uh, both to trade for and trade
away at at this um, you know, raised costs. I
actually think if I was doing a startup right now,
if we did another one, he would be a dude.
I would be legitimately targeting well. I think he's got
the size to be someone to look to in the
red zone, that's for sure. At six four. The question
(24:47):
is how much red zone passing is this offense willing
to do, and when they do it, how many of
it's not how much of it's not going to go
to George Kittle on the tight ends. But without Deebo Samuel,
there's has to be legitimate upside to someone else, especially
at the spot that you're gonna be taking them. I
don't know what I see the upside being for heard,
(25:07):
maybe over five touchdowns is the upside at least in
the short term. But a young kid, I see the
appeal to him. It's just a brutal offense to get
anywhere in terms of upside. If you expect I used
to be the number two target, yeah, I don't know
if I expect I used to be the number one target.
(25:27):
I mean, maybe what happens is the running backs take
a bigger role in the passing game. Maybe George Kittle
actually just gets pelted with volume. You know, maybe we
actually see like a hundred and fifty and sixty target
season for George Kittle. That would obviously be massive. Um,
you know, maybe maybe he sees enough volume to actually
score more fantasy points than Travis Kelsey. Know it would
(25:49):
be it would be absurd. You know, we remember that
George Kittle ran really bad on touchdowns last season, so
certainly something to think about. Yeah. I think the forty
miners are so much an interesting team because theoretically they
have all of this efficiency available, but they give so
many different players touches that any consolidation of those touches
ends up making the players they're you know, more valuable.
(26:11):
But We're gonna go ahead and head into break here
on the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grid TV.
When we returned, we are going to shift our attention
over to some fantasy football a DP discussion looking at
some risers and followers over the last few weeks in
high stakes drafts. So when we return, we will have
a fantasy football discussion. See you guys on the other
side of break sports grid dot Com Betting insights and
(26:36):
entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the most
important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. M Yeah, this is
(27:02):
Sports Grade. Hello everyone, Welcome back from Break here on
the Daily Road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davis Mannock joined by Ricky Sanders. We are changing tunes
a little bit today discussing some football news and notes,
as Cam Newton signing with the New England Patriots has
(27:24):
really started to uh make waves in the fantasy football world.
And you know, we have some news on Antonio Brown
and actually I think that we should start this discussion
of fantasy football ADP right there because you know those
those guys are those guys are the new and the brightest,
the shiniest tools, so they're gonna have the biggest jumps
(27:44):
in ADP. Right now, Ricky Antonio Brown is going at
wide receiver forty eight, So he's going just ahead of
guys who are going to get points for sure, in
going ahead of Mike Williams, going ahead of Justin Jefferson,
who I know you really like, going ahead of Anthony Miller,
Curtis Samuel h Do we do we think that these
(28:05):
ADP s are are justified? I think this is still
too early for me. Like, where do you see Antonio
Brown fitting into this offense? There are a lot of
mouths to feed here. I think you need big target
numbers from Mike Evans or Chris Godwin just by default.
I think Rob Bronkowski is gonna factor into this target share.
(28:26):
So how much volume is going to be available for
Antonio Brown once you factor in the receiving backs, whether
it's a Goomba Wally, whether it's Keyshawn Vaughn, whether it's
any of the backs who have to catch their passes
as well. I just don't see how you project Antonio
Brown for a massive target share, Like, even if we're
being generous, what do you think fourteen fifteen percent? How
(28:47):
is he going to get any higher than that on
this offense with all the with all the people surrounding him.
I look at him versus Justin Jefferson, and I see
way less mouths to feed there. It's not gonna be
as past happy of an offense. But we also still
don't know that Tom Brady is still, you know, anywhere
(29:08):
near prime version of Tom Brady. He doesn't have to
be that. But is he thirty touchdown Tom Brady anymore?
And if the answer is no, then you're talking about
possibly the fourth target in an offense that has more
targets than that that legitimately need volume, versus an offense
that really has two main guys in Justin Jefferson, even
(29:28):
though it's not like a high passing offense. I think
this is still too early for Antonio Brown. I like
some of these guys going after him. I like Sterling
Shepherd better, I like Anthony Miller better. I think he's
being drafted at least ten to fifteen spots too early. Yeah,
I you know, I think that, um, I think that
is probably fair so looking at some of the guys
(29:49):
who have really risen in f f PC a DP
over the last couple of weeks, we have a forty
spot jump for Mike Boone. He was basically going undrafted.
Now he's like a really popular selection in the sixteen
nineteenth rounds. And uh, I have to say, I am
on board with this one. Boone has been a guy
(30:10):
that I have liked for a long time. Obviously, a
lot of my teams are looking for upside running backs
later in drafts at at this point, so Boone's upside is,
you know, almost all entirely related to Dalvin Cook either
holding out or getting injured. Um. I also think that
maybe there is some thought, I mean, do we think
it's possible that Boone jumps over Alexander Madison in season? Like?
(30:34):
Do we do we think that is a possibility at
all as the actual handcuff for uh, you know, for
the Vikings. No. I think it's more likely though that
you know, Boon could see a larger role than we're expecting,
which would be the reason for his value and potentially
sneaks in and take some of the goal line work.
Like I think the reason you would draft him here
(30:55):
is because he moved up the totem pole, so there's
only one injury ahead of him. Now, if Dalvin Cook
is out for him to be the guy, and the
potential for him to be like a sixty forty guy,
if Alexander Madison doesn't get used as heavily as we think.
I don't really envision a scenario in which Madison is
so terrible that Boone takes over as the starter, but
(31:17):
I guess it's in the range of possibilities. I just
think it's an extreme long shot. I think I think
it probably is a long shot as well. I do.
I do really like this one though, and I think
that I'm still comfortable drafting Boon like Boone is definitely
a guy that I'm sitting there with my last pick
before I take a kicker in a defense, I feel
good about keeping him there on the bench. The afore
(31:39):
mentioned Brandon Aiyuk now is going as a guy that
you do actually have to spend on, you know, kind
of going in that range of the guys we just
talked about. Um, okay, here's one au or in Kiel Harry. Um,
I think I gotta go Iu. If if this injury
the debo is gonna hold him out for for the
(32:01):
regular for multiple weeks in the regular season. I think
mkil Harry has a chance to ascend. But Mohammedson news
the veteran there and again I was looking at I
forget which beat writer I want to give credit, but
I don't remember who it was projecting the split for
these receivers when they thought it was Stidham. I think
six fifty four yards was the maximum for any of
(32:23):
the receivers in this offense. I think I upside far
exceeds that, and probably with Cam Newton, Harry's upside exceeds
the six fifty four number. But I think I feel
better about the guaranteed volume for I, so I would
take him. I think that, um, I think that one
is probably fair. This is a weird one to me.
(32:45):
Ryan Tannehill is a guy that's drafters are really into,
so he was basically going undrafted before. I think I
see the trend line here though. People were taking Jared
Stidham as their backup quarterback or their third quarterback in
super flex formats, and now you know now that option
has eliminated. Cam Newton obviously is going much much higher
(33:07):
than that. So Tannehill as your second quarterback, you know,
a little bit more expensive these days. I I get it, right,
I I get why you would be interested in Tannehill.
You know a little bit of rushing upside. Obviously was
one of the most efficient deep passers in the NFL
last year. I am I'm not buying it though. No,
(33:27):
I'm not either. I think he's just a guy in
this range. I mean, are you really that upset if
you're waiting around in your backup quarterback? You know, you
pass on Tannehill and then your next options are Kirk Cousins,
who's behind him in a DP. I probably wouldn't want
Garoppolo if there's no um Deebo Samuel, But I'm okay
with some of these next guys. Bridgewater I think has
(33:48):
at least some potential. Minshew probably not. But Drew lock
is a guy who's intriguing to me just because of
the weapons around him. Dwayne Haskins has has a chance
to take the next step. I mean Philip Rivers, Uh,
he hasn't been great, but this is the best offensive
line He's played with it quite sometimes, so I don't
think there's a huge drop off of Tannehill to these guys,
I'm in no hurry to draft Tannehill as my backup
(34:10):
if if this is the alternative. So a guy who
is now jumping up an ADP that I agree with,
you know, I would still select him at current cost
is Curtis Samuel. So last year Samuel was way over price.
You know, you really had to take him in the
seventh round, eighth round, ninth round, you'll, and his price
got more and more expensive as the off season went on.
(34:31):
I think he was really miscast last year. They just
they weren't using him, they weren't giving him carries, they
weren't using him near the line of scrimmage at all,
really only as their their deep burner. And you know,
I I think that this news report that Matt Rule
wants Teddy Bridgewater to be throwing the ball further down
the fields. Uh, you know, I think that's positive for
(34:51):
Curtis Samuel. But I I am drafting pretty much all
Curtis Samuel and like no Robby Anderson this year. I
think I think Robby Anderson will u I think Curtis
Samuel will out target and outplay Curtis Samuel this year.
And I think Anderson's signing has done a world of
wonders for Curtis Samuel. Are we still taking him you
know there and around pick Yeah, I'm completely fine with that.
(35:14):
I don't think the Robbie Anderson skill set translates very
well to Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy Bridgewater is a guy who
you want to hit the guys with slants. I mean,
he showed to be an accurate passer last year with
New Orleans, but he was still like over a six
completion guy during his days in Minnesota. So it's not like,
you know, the over sixty percent completion is something new.
(35:37):
Obviously it was taken to New Heights with with Mike Thomas,
which you would expect, but I don't think you know
the long like you said, they have to force this
guy to throw the ball down the field. So the
guys who are just the deep threats are not are
not going to be fed constantly. Like if Robbie Anderson
has a big leak, it's gonna be few and far between.
He is your prototypical best ball guy, but he's gonna
(35:59):
be a guy who's just hard to own in seasonal
leagues because of how inconsistent he's gonna be, whereas Curtis
Samuel and d J. Moore could be legitimate volume guys,
both of them. So I think if you're in a
PPR league, Curtis Samuel definitely could be undervalued and he
could see some additional volume with a guy who could
get him the ball in the short field, which was
not the Cam Newton specialty. So very similarly, a guy
(36:23):
who we would really prefer in best ball, I am,
I am, I am pretty much all the way out
on Henry Ruggs where he's going right now about on overall,
so you know, to give you a sense of guys
you could select instead of Henry Ruggs, Antonio Brown that
we just talked about before, Um, Preston Williams, Sterling Shepherd,
Anthony Miller. I like all these guys. I think I
(36:43):
would even take and Kiel Harry over Henry Ruggs, who
legitimately is going forty picks later. Um, I Henry Ruggs
at wide receiver forty six. I am not on board
for this trend at all. No me neither. It's like
people don't realize that Henry Ruggs was not the only
offensive weapon drafted here. Hunter Renfrow and Darren Wallera still there.
(37:04):
You've got Lynn Bowden, You've got Brian Edwards, You've got
a bunch of guys who were brought into this offense.
I don't know why the market seems to assume that
he's going to be the top guy of these rookies
when you looked at he's being drafted ahead of Justin
Jefferson and Brandon Ayuk in you know, recent days. I
don't know how these people are handicapping it that way,
like what kind of target share and how many yards
(37:26):
per target must you be projecting Henry Ruggs to have
him ahead of those guys. I would be shocked if
Justin Jefferson did not out target Henry Ruggs by double
digits this year. I mean that would legitimately shocked me.
And so because I have them projected as such, I
think this is a market miss price. And I think
Henry Ruggs inside the top one hundred is that this
(37:49):
is that you know where he's been taking at the
max average one twenty probably twenty picks too early for me.
So a group of quarterbacks, all of these guys have
jumped up about fifteen spots over the last couple of days,
Jared Goff, Ben Roethlisberger, Baker Mayfield, and Drew Brees. Of
of those four guys or any of them, you know,
(38:11):
core parts of your strategy. I don't know about core
parts of my strategy, but Baker Mayfield is a guy
certainly warming on as we go on. I think you've
got the coach there who wants to establish the run,
but being able to you know, kind of focus on
the run more so and have a very effective run
game is gonna open it up for Baker Mayfield, who
(38:33):
now has you know, the extra target in Austin Hooper there. Uh,
they drafted you know, Donovan People's Jones, they have Kareem
Hunt for a full season. Now. I think there's enough
talent around him, even in more of a run centric offense,
that Baker Mayfield could just be more effective on a
perth row basis where you don't need like insane volume
and he can still have a productive fantasy season. So
(38:55):
I continue to warm on Baker Mayfield just the Browns
in general. Yeah, I I am in on the Browns
being better this season. I think, you know, basically everything
was just chaos last year, and I think there should
be overall less chaos going on this season, So we
are going to go ahead and had to break here
on the Daily road To Hour on Sports Grade TV.
(39:18):
When we return, we were actually gonna go through my
list of second year wide receiver breakouts and see if
we can find any guys who we are really really
in on or if we can cross them off of
our draft list. So see you guys in just a
few minutes. On the other side of break sports grid
dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips as
(39:40):
our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to the Daily
road to Hour Here on sports Gride TV. I'm Davis
Mannick joined by Ricky Sanders. Were having a fantasy football
(40:03):
discussion today, ran through the Cam Newton News, ran through
some Antonio Brown rumblings that he might be returning to
the NFL signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and now
delving into some potential breakouts. So, Ricky, if you remember
last year, uh it seems like a lot of people
are are wanting to do a revisionist history on what
(40:24):
they believed about DJ Shark. You know that everyone saw
his breakoutcoming. You know, everyone's ready for DJ Shark to crush,
and it's just not the case. Right. He was basically
going uh with with a forgotten pick in the fantasy
drafts in twenty nineteen after a rookie year where he
played in eleven games, was targeted thirty two times, caught
fourteen passes, a hundred and seventy four receiving yards, zero touchdowns.
(40:47):
But was you know, a big part of our strategy
at Rhodo Experts and sports Grid last year as a
target And so I thought, you know, an interesting idea
for an article on sports Grid would be to look
at some potential guys who might be the version of
DJ Shark where they have a disappointing rookie season and
then really break out as a second year player. So
(41:08):
the first guy we've talked about him a bunch here
on the show today, I think the most obvious answer
is going to be in Keel Harry because the reason
he didn't play as a rookie was due to injury.
You know, not really poor performance, and he does have
a much better quarterback situation now with Cam Newton in there.
Do you do you think that the answer to the
question of who is the version of d J Shark
(41:29):
is just pretty simply in Keel Harry. I think he's
the closest thing. And I want to start by saying
I was not one of the people taking the victory
lap on DJ Shark. I was pretty heavily invested in
D D. Westbrook and I love both of them. Yeah,
and and and yeah didn't quite work out. Yeah, I
thought that he was Nick Foles, this guy, and then
we got like one week of Nick Foles. I took
(41:50):
a gigantic l in most of my league's. Luckily, there
was an auction league where I did get out bit
on him and I won the super Bowl in that league,
So I kind of saved race for all my leagues
because the other ones took some monster monster hits with
with an early DJ or d D. Westbrook pick. But
nikkil Harry seems like the obvious guy, right because Cam
(42:10):
Newton wants to throw to those outside receivers. I think
I just don't think, uh, there's gonna be consistent enough
volume for a guy like Julian Edelman to be the
top guy with him like there was with Tom Brady.
It's just very different skill sets. Cam Newton, even when
he was healthy, was often the the guy who would
would throw high. You'd be watching a game and you'd
just be like, how do you how can you not
(42:31):
make that throw as a as a professional quarterback? And
then he's got these big outside receivers and he can
just loft the ball to them and they can go
up and get it. And so I think Nikkil Harry
fits the skill set of what will suit Cam Newton.
And yeah, I mean he was kind of a nothing
last year, But what are the alternatives? I mean, Julian
Edelman is very old for a guy who is does
(42:53):
not have big size, and I mean, at some point
it's got to be the end for him. Mohammed Sunu
is in the latter day of his career and there's
just not much Elsier. You've got some rookie tight ends, uh,
some of which you know, we've heard people say that
these might not even be you know, the greatest of
receiving tight ends that they fell into. I mean, Assisi
is a pretty big dude. So it's hard to imagine
(43:15):
he runs extremely well. Uh, Nikkio Harry may fall into
being the top target in this offense by default. We
went over it with Cam Newton thinking that it's a
possibility that this offense is just you know, a bunch
of guys doing some are putting up similar numbers. But
there's also a chance that Nikkil Harry is just the
most talented at this point in his career and Cam
Newton needs a guy and the two of them are
(43:37):
just a match made in heaven. Yeah, I I agree
with you. I think that the likely answer to this
question is going to be in Kiel Harry. But we
do have some other guys on this list. Paris Campbell
is another guy because he really shouldn't have any competition.
You know, I don't think Pittman really is going to
be ready to go from week one, right, I should
say I would be surprised if Michael Pittman is ready
(43:58):
to go week one, obviously, t Y Hilton, you know,
now he's thirty one years old, coming off of an
injury filled season where he just had a bunch of
lower body injuries. You know, I don't think it would
be surprising that he is certainly on the downward trend
of his career. And you know, Frank Reich is super
positive about all these guys. He loves to say positive
things about literally every player on his roster. But what
(44:19):
he said about Paris Campbell is that he's super pumped
about his upside. That they didn't get to see enough
of him last year because of he was injured. But
you know, it was really complimentary about the way he's
been going through things this offseason. And I actually think
that Campbell is a really ideal replacement for t Y Hilton.
And if Campbell played, you know, kind of a Keenan
(44:40):
Alan Ask role in this offense, where t Y Hilton
turned into the Mike Williams, you know, getting those down
the field targets, Campbell works more in the intermediate area.
I could actually see him out targeting t Y Hilton
this season. Now, granted, you know, that's a top fifty
outcome or something like that after only playing in seven
games as a rookie. But you know, I think Campbell
(45:02):
does have some pretty tangible upside there. Uh. It's hard
to look at a guy who ran a four three forty,
which is the hundred percentile. Uh, he has a seven
percentile speed score and percentile first score. And not say
there's upside there. I mean people who haven't really looked
into Paris Campbell might not be able to see, like
(45:23):
why this is a guy who should be drafted. His
best comparable skill set is Santana Moss according to play
at player profile dot com, who was another guy who
was just a pure speedster. And if t Y Hilton
has lost the ability to be that guy in this offense,
I do think with Philip Rivers there's there's a possibility
that people are overvaluing Pittman's ability to just step right
(45:45):
in in the season where there's not too much you know,
offseason work together with the quarterback, and if this guy
can can really get past the defense. I mean Philip
Rivers was still willing to throw the ball downfield. I
mean Mike Williams was just the downfield guy who happened
to have some serious size as well. But Paris Campbell's
a guy who can beat a defender on any given play,
(46:07):
And so I think a thousand plus yards is within
the range of outcomes. In fact, I don't think it's
like a crazy outcome. I think it's like a seventy
percentile outcome, and there's actually more to it than that,
and Paris Cambell not being drafted as such, So I
think that's actually a really sharp guy to be on
when the masses are going to fluctuate towards either t
Y Hilton, who's the old you know, the older dude
(46:29):
who's who's tiny, who's losing speed as he goes on,
and the new shiny toy like you mentioned in Michael Pittman,
who was a very good college receiver. But you know,
Paris Campbell's still here, he is, he is still there.
Uh A name, a name, you know, only I think
they're not very many Andy Isabella Truthers left. In fact,
when I wrote this article on sports Grid, he had
(46:51):
not been drafted once in a Football Guys Players Championship
over the last four days, so in the article, his
ADP is listed as undrafted. I actually have a theory
for why Andy Isabella did not play as a rookie
as much. You know why Keyshawn Johnson, Farall Cooper, Max Williams,
Demure Bird, all these guys were out snapping Isabella, and uh,
(47:11):
you know, it's because he played at the University of Massachusetts. Right,
he was literally playing like, uh, the lowest level of
D one football you can play, and just maybe he
wasn't ready, right, maybe he didn't understand the terminology, you know,
really was taking a long time to get up to speed.
I just I I feel like even with his clear
physical gifts of you know, how fast he is, um,
(47:32):
I think that there were real reasons why he did
not play as a rookie last year. But he should have,
you know, enough, he should have enough in the locker
to get on the field. Even with the DeAndre Hopkins
trade this season. Yeah, I was gonna say, I have
one reason why I'm not overly excited about him this year,
and that's DeAndre Hopkins, Who's gonna have to take a
giant share of of the targets because I mean, Larry
(47:56):
Fitzgerald is still there and it's still a possession receiver.
But I think DeAndre Hopkins, you know, was brought in
to be the true number one, and then you have
Christian Kirk and you just don't have a lot of volume.
I don't think even if this offense is going to
be the fastest paced offense in the league, which is
certainly possible, they weren't last year. But I think they
have the opportunity to to speed it up to just
(48:19):
be the offensive juggernaut that we thought they would be.
And if that's the case, you know, you could see
four receivers being worth drafting. Um, that's that's within the
range of outcomes. But I mean, you look at last
year with this team. Uh, they did run a ton
of plays, but the fact that he didn't get on
(48:41):
the field worries me. I just what, what are you
projecting in four in terms of targets share? I mean,
is there any way he gets over seven percent? You think,
obviously you do if you're drafting him, But I'm just
looking at the other options on this offense and I
don't see it. I mean, a fifty nine point four
plays per game was below the league average for for
the Cardinals. We did not expect with them. So even
(49:02):
if we think, you know, he does anything near his
college uh pace with this team, I just don't see it.
So he's gotta he's gotta overtake Larry Fitzgerald. That that's
what he has to play over Larry Fitzgerald. That's that's
how it happens, right. They just say Larry thanks for
your time. You're you're great. Um, we just don't want
we just don't want to have you playing all these snaps.
(49:24):
That that's how it happens basically. Yeah, okay, I think
I think this name is super sneaky. Uh Miles Boykin. Right,
So everyone keeps talking about, you know, uh, they signing
all these players, you know, Antonio Brown, like, you know
the the he's had those he's had those workouts. Uh.
Lamar Jackson has posted those workouts with Antonio Brown. But
(49:47):
what if they don't sign anyone? And Miles Boykin kind
of replaces those Hayden her snaps and you know he's
playing over Jalil Scott and Chris Moore and Willie's need.
Why can't Miles boy can catch h eight touchdowns? This
here tell me why? Well, they did commit to, you know,
drafting some receivers in this draft. First of all, Devin
(50:08):
Duvernet and James Proach with pick what was at two
oh one, So they did draft multiple receivers, which makes
me think they weren't incredibly comfortable. But if you're asking me,
you know, if you're telling me to tell you that
he can't do it. I was on Boykin last year
as a guy who I thought could be a sneaky
piece in that Ravens offense. Obviously, Marquis Brown turned out
(50:30):
to be the king of the sneakiness, the number one
option in that passing game along with Mark Andrews. So
I don't I don't know. We talked about it. We
think they're going to be in more competitive games this
year where they don't have to or they won't be
running as much where you know, I think Mark Andrews
is gonna get more targets if that's the case, for sure,
but some of it's gonna have to go to the receivers.
(50:51):
The question is Devin Duverney, how ready is he because
he's a guy who could catch a ton of passes
out of the slot, and if he's ready to go
and if he has a role, I just don't see
the volume for Boykin if they're not ready to kind of,
you know, commit to any sort of volume for a
guy like DuVernay. Marquis Brown was a guy who was
more of like a down the field dude. So I think,
(51:13):
you know, in the red zone, if you're looking for
another guy, Boykin makes a ton of sense. Yeah, I
I really, I really think that uh, I really think
that he does. I I'm pretty high on him. We're
getting a little short here on time, so I'll give
my soliloquy on J j R. Sega white Side, which
is I mean, none of these guys were more disappointing
than J j R. Sega Whiteside. The Eagles got about
(51:34):
three quarters out of de Shawn Jackson. They were so
desperate they were playing literally, they were playing Deonte Burnett
and Richard Rogers as pass catchers in the playoffs, they
needed wide receivers, and our Sega Whiteside was getting out
snapped by Greg Ward, who is a converted college quarterback
who has bounced around practice squads the NFL. So this
is terrible. This is all basically like our Sega white
(51:55):
Side can't play um and and my only argument for
him is he was a great prospect, you know, broke
out before dominator rating his final season at Stanford, crushed
the combine, and Carson Wentz is a good quarterback. This
is a productive NFL offense. So wouldn't take him in
best ball because you need the ability to cut him.
(52:15):
But in the football, guys players championship in some of
those other high stakes leagues. I do think that there
are reasons to, you know, take a few stabs on
him here and there. So everyone, thank you very much
for watching and listening to the daily road to hour
here on Sports Grade TV. This has been Davis Maddock
and Ricky Sanders. When we return tomorrow, we will be
changing tunes once again, heading back over to Major League
(52:39):
Baseball to do our team by team and division by
division preview. We've already covered the American League, so when
you tune in tomorrow, we will be going through the
National League team divisions. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights
and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
(53:00):
betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge than
get on the grid. Sports grid dot Com m
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