July 16, 2020 • 53 mins
Davis Mattek is joined by Chrsitopher Pacheco, as they preview The Memorial Tournament happening this week at Muirfield Village. The guys take a look at the betting market for the event for outright winners, top 10, and top 20 finishes. Davis and Pacheco also dive into some props as well for the tournament, including an odds boost on the FanDuel SportsBook for Tigers Woods' return.
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to the
(00:20):
daily Road to Hour here on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davis Mannith joint today by Christopher Pacheco, and we are
actually going to dive back into the Memorial Championship played
this week at mere Field Village. We did yesterday's show
on the topic, really a DFS focus show with myself
and Colin Drew. But but checko, you've been grinding out
(00:42):
in these PGA streets ill. I also think that, um,
if there was ever gonna be weak for us to
double up on golf shows, this would be a great
one because I think this is such an interesting experiment
where they are playing the exact same course mere Field
Village that they played last week for the Workday Charity
Open and did in a playoff between Justin Thomas and
(01:03):
Colin Morikawa. They're supposedly making the course a little bit
more difficult, but you know, I saw some I saw
some math done on strength of field, and really this
is even stronger than like the p g A Championship
and the British Open in terms of total strength of
field like this, this may this might end up being
the most difficult tournament all year essentially in terms of
(01:24):
strength of field. So I think I saw somewhere on
Twitter that this field Davis is the stronger than the
last eight Masters, just to put things into perspective, um,
which is pretty absurd. And yes, I think they are.
They are making an effort to make the course play tougher. Uh.
(01:48):
My belief is that they're they're not going to cut
the rough, so you know, it might be a little
bit more difficult uh this week. But I think the
biggest thing to mention when it comes to the course
is to of the field. It's going to be absurd.
The talent level that we have out there, Yeah it is.
It is going to be absurd, And you know, I
think that, Um, you know, I think one of the largest,
(02:11):
the largest things this week is going to be figuring
out who is able to play out of the rough,
because that's basically gonna be one of the biggest differences
week over week and you know, looking at the top
of the outright markets on the Fandel sports book, I
think the markets are definitely telling us that distance and
being able to hit out of the rough is gonna
be super important, because we see Bryson j T can't lay, Rory,
(02:35):
Dustin Johnson, John rom you know, kind of all there
at the top of the betting markets. But you know, Jecko,
I thought the thing that was most interesting was Tiger Woods,
who you know that. I think they get price Tiger
Woods at eight to one at this event, and he
would still be getting public action. But the FanDuel sports
book has Tiger priced all the way down at to one,
(02:56):
which seems crazy to me. So it's so my belief
is that this is the first event that Tigers played
since the COVID situation, right since the restart. UM. Not
that that's overly meaningful. He did play the match, but
that doesn't count as an official PGA Tour event or
anything like that. UM. Personally, I'm not overly concerned about
(03:21):
the fact that he's he's had all this rest I
think of anything that that doesn't you know, that that's
better for him, is especially given all the injuries that
he's had. Over the years with the back and whatnot.
So um at seven to one, Davis, It's it's still
very tempting. I wouldn't be surprised if you know early
(03:43):
Thursday this number comes down to like to one to one.
So while you can I would hammer Tiger at twenty
seven to one on Vandal sports book, You're you're in
on Tigers. So so my my opinion is, I guess,
first off, is this event is going to be one
by a star, you know, I just I don't think
this is an event we're gonna see Joakie Neeman and
(04:05):
you know, Paul Casey and Kevin Kisner competing events that
are this strong. You know, it's like it's it's gonna
play like a major. The course is gonna play tough.
There's gonna be loads of pressure on guys on Sunday.
So you know, for me, I I think it is
exceedingly exceedingly likely that we get a winner from inside one.
I actually have only made three bets this week in
(04:26):
the outright market. I think that the T twenty markets
are way better. So I I just I want you
to respond to all of these wagers and tell me
what you think of them. The first wager I made
Rory McElroy fourteen to one. I decided to pass on
Bryce in this week. UH take the extra four points
there with Rory McElroy and and book him to win.
(04:49):
I'm in on Roria fourteen to one. I am not
in on Bryson attent to one. And I know that's
not a bet that you made, but just a playing myself.
Like Bryson has been right, just otherworldly. Uh, just to
throw some numbers at you. UH strokes game off the
t uh in twenty he's ranking first, UH shots strokes
(05:15):
game T to green, He's he rings sixth overall. UH.
Putting has been exceptional. I mean there's there's like nothing.
He hasn't really done all that well except hasn't played
great around the green. But when you're that long and
you make putts, you're gonna do incredible. So it's not
very surprising to see Bryson do this well. The biggest
(05:37):
challenge is that he's priced all the way up at ten,
and at that point it's just not very interesting. I
think Rory at fourteen to one, UH, even DJ at
fifteen to one are more interesting bets. Yeah, I mean,
what a bummer, for Dustin to have completely ruined his number.
You know, so he wins two weeks ago, you know,
(05:57):
beats Brennan Todd in that final grouping on Sunday, and uh,
when he went off at that tournament in a much
weaker field, he was to one wins that event. I
actually think had DJ, you know, just grinded out like
a T eight team that week, I think he would
have been priced with Ricky Fowler this week. And I
think we could have bet Dustin Johnson at like forty
(06:18):
two one this week. But yeah, to me, I mean
I thought that Rory at fourteen to one shorter than
Patrick can't lay shorter than Justin Tomas, shorter than Bryceon,
I thought was easy. I mean, to me, Rory is
still the best player in the world. And you know,
if you you look at his track record, he generally
wins about three times a year on the p g
A tour, you know, sometimes a little bit more. He's
(06:38):
had seasons with more, he's had seasons with less. But uh,
you know, Rory also does really well in strong field events.
So I felt very confident about that wager I I did,
though I passed on DJ, passed on Moriy Cowell with
the repeat win. I know a lot of people are
going to be interested in rom I passed on him.
Headeki and Hovland went down to Xander schiff Lee at
(06:59):
thirty one to one. By the way, this number on
the Fandel Sports book, it's it's the best you're gonna
get anywhere in the online wagering world. So I really
like that one. But Xander to me is just kind
of the classic, very good off the tea, very good strokes,
gaged approach, and you know, because kind of the weakness
of his game is around the greens and that's not
(07:20):
going to come into play that much this week. I
think we have to feel pretty pretty strong about Xander
this week. At thirty one to one, I think Xander
is a good about at one to one. I think
the biggest thing for me, Davis, is there's just someone
else I like more in that range. Let's um. I
(07:40):
think Daniel Burger at forty one. It is simply just
a little bit better of a bat uh than Xander.
I have nothing against that. I just think Burger has
been simply fantastic. H just continues to make you know,
more strides. I think over the last unund so not
(08:01):
a huge sample here, but over over the last twenty
four measured rounds, uh, you know, strokes, game total, he's
he reigns like second. Uh. He's just been a beast.
And I think at forty two one, you're getting pretty
good value there. Yeah, Burger has played seven events in
he's won one of them, he's gotten third place in
(08:22):
one of them, and he's gotten a top ten in
the other three. The only event in that that he
well so so they merit the am X uh. He
t twenty nine, the Sony Open in Hawaii, he t
thirty eight, uh, and then back in twenty nineteen. The
last time he missed a cut was at the Houston Open.
But we've basically we've seen a huge climb for him
(08:46):
in the official World Golf Ranking's kind of back to
where he was. Actually, this is the the highest he's
been since twenty seventeen, a year in which he also
won a tournament. So I I don't I don't think
that I per suddenly love the number for Burger. I
think forty one is probably a little tight for him,
(09:06):
you know, like that's deeper than Justin Rose, deeper than
female than Song j M. But I do not disagree
with the analysis at all that Burger is you know,
he probably has one of the best all around games
on tour right now. I don't. I don't really think
that's uh, I don't really think that that can be disputed.
The last wager that I've already placed for the for
(09:29):
the Memorial Invitational is Sergio Garcia. I bet it that
sixty six to one. It's a move to seventy to
one on the Vanduel Sports book, So a little couple
extra points of value there for those of you who
want to uh, you know, who want to go there.
But basically, you know, I think Sergio is you know,
not a not a particularly great putter, but he is
one of the best t de Green guys on the tour.
(09:52):
What do you think about him at seventy to one?
Do you think that's that's realistic? I think that is
very realistic. U David's surgeon has been playing really well.
Um he he doesn't have a I mean he doesn't.
He can't put right, but can't neither neither can Hideki
and Hideki, who is a better player, you know, to
(10:13):
be fair, but he's probably you know, meaningfully higher one.
And I do like Hideck as a DFS play, but
I think Sergio a seventy and seventy to one provides
really great value. I know you probably won't love this name,
but I think Patti read at fifty two one as
someone else that I think can put everything together and
(10:36):
really compete in this event with all the top names,
whereas some of the other players around that range. I'm
a bit skeptical, So I do like Patty read a
fifty two one, Sergio at seventy to one is a
great bat in my opinion. Yeah, I mean that's really
I think realistically, that's the deepest you can go. The
other guy I was kind of looking at is Matt Kucher.
(10:56):
But you know, like come down to Sunday, do we
really think that Kucher is gonna beat Rory, gonna be Bryson,
gonna be DJ you know, like it just it feels
very unlikely that, uh this, And I guess I mean
he does win sometimes, right, like he has, uh he
has at least one win every year for the last
three years. Obviously racks up the tea tens. Has had
(11:18):
seasons with multiple wins in the past, but you know,
probably at the end of the day, like this is
a prestige event. It's going to be won by a
prestige player. Yeah. I think the biggest thing for Kucher
it's it's not that I don't think he can't win
this event, although there is a lot it's very top heavy,
like there's a lot of good players on this field,
(11:39):
as we discussed earlier. I just think he doesn't really
do it for me. Off the team Davids like, he's
not he's not very long, and I think you know,
come Sunday, when you have to be long and you
have to take some risks, I don't think Cuture will
whereas some other players that are you know, something like
Bryson for example, we know what's ridiculously long. He's he's
(11:59):
going to all that far. So that's one of the
reasons why I think Kucher as a bet doesn't really
make a lot of sense for me, especially when we're
talking you know, outright winner. Yeah, and um, you know
just if you are, if you are a degenerate gambler
like some of us here are there, I will I
will toss out some super super long shots for for
us to sweat, and when we get back from the break,
(12:21):
We're gonna talk to twenties and we can talk more
about these guys, but some of the some of the
guys that are projections on Daily rodo that they like
for outright winners way deep Ryan Moore two hundred and
fifty two one, Von Taylor at four hundred and forty
two one on the FanDuel Sports Book, Bud Collie at
three hundred and fifty two one, uh, Scottie Scheffler a
(12:41):
hundred and fifty two one, Jim Ferick a hundred and
seventy to one, and the bomb of the week Sebastian
Moons four hundred and fifty two one. Our stuff has
as a plus e V outright, But we are going
to go ahead and head into our first break here
on the Daily Road to Hour on sports Cred TV.
When we return, we are to continue looking at the
betting markets for the Memorial Tournament this weekend at Merefield Village.
(13:05):
Look at the first round leaders, the top twenties, and
some of the mad cut markets at the Memorial. So
see you guys on the other side of break in
just a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights
and Entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
(13:25):
betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge than
get on the grid sports grid dot com. Hello everyone,
and welcome back to the daily Road to Hours Here
on sports Gride TV. I am David Mannick joined by
Christopher Checko. Today on the show, we are breaking down
in further detail the Memorial Invitational taking place at Murfield
(13:49):
Village this week. We've already covered it on Monday show.
If you want even more content, specifically DFS Center content
with myself and Colin Drew, you can watch that on
demand on sports grade dot com. But right now, Pacheco,
we are looking at the outright and some of the
other gambling markets on the Vanduel Sports book this week
for the Memorial Tournament. Are there are some other outrights
(14:10):
that you are looking at? There are and I I
don't think that you're going to like these names. I
really don't. John rom One is someone that I don't
think you you have interest in betting here or potentially
even you know, playing a lot of in DFS. Just
(14:33):
just knowing you, I don't think you're like a huge
ram supporter. I I am not a huge RUM supporter,
but I fully acknowledge that realistically there's not that much
of a difference between Bryson and Rom. I just have
I have pledged my allegiance to one of these guys
and have not pledged my allegiance to the other. And
it's it's really kind of that simple. But I don't
(14:54):
I don't hate the rom bet at all. And obviously
it's a better number than you're getting with Rory or
with Bryson. Yeah. So it's it really comes down to
the like, do you believe that the eid under he
shot on Sunday last week in the same course. Uh,
you know, do you have any confidence that maybe he
(15:14):
just kind of figured he kind of figured it all out,
um on that round because previous to that, Davis he
really he was playing okay, but he wasn't playing like
a top five player in the world. Uh. And he's
gonna have to play like a top five player in
the world here, Uh if you're betting him to win
out right. Uh. The thing with Roman, sometimes you know,
(15:37):
he's he's inconsistent. Sometimes he tilts, and you don't know
what kind of version you're getting. But I think at one,
I'm willing to take that risk. The other one that
I think is certainly worth talking about is Web Simpson.
One a guy that is not He's not long at all,
so from a driving distance perspective that you know that
(15:59):
could be an issue. Hasn't really done incredibly well on
this course in the past. But Davis coming into this event,
this dude has played like one of the best golfers
in the entire world. Uh. He's made you know, a
good amount of strides this season. Uh, continues to put
ridiculously well, which could mask any sort of issues he
(16:21):
could have off the te um. Do you believe that
Web Simpson is a top five player in the world,
because Data Golf believes that that is the case now,
and he's not priced like a top five player in
the world. So my take on this is that right
now Web might be a top five guy in the world,
(16:43):
like he might be playing that well. His results might
indicate that, but I would not be, you know, really
tremendously surprised if you know, a year from now, we
are thinking about him like you know, a guy, Uh,
let's let's say, like Billy Horshell. Uh, Danny Willett, Henrik
Stenson like a guy who had or Francesco Millinari, like
(17:06):
a guy who just destroyed golf courses for a year,
for for eighteen months, and then once the putter kind
of left him, then that that form faded really really quickly.
That's that's kind of how I feel about Web Simpson,
where yeah, he might be great right now and you
might feel, you know, kind of burnt by by not
having him at you know, by not betting on him,
(17:27):
by not playing him in dfs, But you know, over
the course of time, I think if you fade guys
like Web, you are likely going to end up making money.
But like, here's the thing, totally understand you on the
putting thing, right Like, at some point I feel like
that skill has to deteriorate to be fair to Web
(17:48):
he has like that skill has always been there for him.
It's other aspects of his golf game that really haven't
been there. Um, he's always been a great putter and
a great irons player. And that's like if you look
over his last fifty rounds, twenty four rounds, no matter
the sample size that you're looking at, you're also going
(18:09):
to see phenomenal ball striking at a WEB so, you know, Davis,
to counter what you're saying, even I think even if
if the putter fails him at some point, I think
his ball striking is so good that it's it's not
going to deteriorate his game to a level where he's
just like he's just another guy. Um. The real question is,
(18:31):
you know, do you believe he's the top five player? Uh?
Moving forward this year? I'm I'm a little bit skeptical
because top five, I mean, there's so much talent, including
some of the younger guys like Hovelin Morikawa that we
haven't really hit on. UM, So the top five is tough.
But right now Data Golf believes that that is the case,
and I'm willing to believe that given all the strikes
(18:54):
that I've seen him make this year. Yeah, And I
think what you are we're just addressing is why, UM,
you know why I don't want to be investing in
Web that you know, long term, I feel like those
dollars are better invested in Hoveland, better invested in Morikawa,
better invested in Zander, better invested in and in Burger.
In answer, like, I just think I think I want
(19:16):
to get those guys on the way up as opposed
to Webb, who I think, you know, might already be
on the way down. We might have already seen Webb's
peak if we did. Um. If that is the case,
it really was a phenomenal peak. Like if this is
the best that we're gonna see out of him, I
really don't think that he's going to improve much off
the tea. If if that is a case. Uh, you know,
(19:39):
he he flashed the ceiling of being a top five
player in the world, which is pretty damn good. Yeah, yeah,
I I definitely think that. Uh. I definitely think that
it's true. I might I might, um, you know, I
might like web more for like a top ten that
Pacheco on the Fatal Sports book he is uh plus
two thirty so two point three to one ten dollars
(20:01):
returns twenty three dollars on the Vandal Sports Book for
a t tin. I think I think I might prefer
that to you know, uh an outright win basically uh,
which is by the way, this week, specifically with how
strong the field is, I I really like betting in
some of these alternate markets. Here's the thing. As much
(20:21):
as I as I just houted Webb, and I think
he might be. He really might be a sneaky tournament
play on draft kings on this field. I just don't
expect a lot of people to to be on him
given all the all the fantastic plays that we have
ahead of them. Um to one. You know, it is
a little bit steep, especially considering that you have Tiger
(20:42):
right there at to one like that, that's really difficult
because you know Tiger has I think he's won this
event seven times, David, seven times. You know, how do
you how do you bet web over him in this range?
I wouldn't I personally want to if you wanted to
double down. I think web one is okay. I don't
think he's like a fantastic bet at twenty five two one.
(21:05):
I think he might be a little bit better of
a T ten as you mentioned play, I think he
might be a little bit better of a DFS play
than an out right back. Yeah, are there any other
outrights that that you are super interested in before we
move on to some of the other alternate markets? Sun
(21:27):
j M At sixty five to one. I feel growth
for saying that, given you know what we've seen. I
don't know of late, but uh, sixty five to one,
like if he if he could just put it all together,
Like I feel like, um, he the only thing he
lacks his consistency. Um, if he could just put it
all together, you know, in in one tournament, I think
(21:51):
he has the upside to potentially win. So it's sixty
five to one. I don't mind it as a you know,
as a dark throw. Yeah, so that you know, the
issue with song Jay is, uh, he since the restart,
his form has just been disgusting. You know, he's been
he's he's been one of these dudes who just has
not been able to put it together. And you know,
(22:12):
there are you know, I'm sure there are a lot
of different reasons for that. Uh. Song Jay is notably
like one of the biggest grinders on tour, like that guy.
That guy absolutely loves to practice golfing. And you know,
I think that uh, I think that the break did
not do him a ton of favors. But I I
want to go here and look in the top ten markets. Um.
(22:34):
So first off, you know, if you did want to
wager on Bryson in a way that uh, you know,
is is not going to leave you having to root
against some of your other guys, like I, I actually
don't hate, you know, betting Bryson, betting can't laid betting
DJ for top tens, maybe even um, maybe even parlaying
them on the Vanduel Sports book like this would probably
(22:54):
be where I would bet those guys and like literally
bet them like a football game, Like okay, I'm to
be placing a you know, a three unit wager on
Bryson to T ten at plus one ten. I don't
think anyone loves Patrick Handley as much as you do,
like I do. I am. I am very high on
Patrick Canley, but I know you have like something like
a different type of love I do. I love him.
(23:18):
There is you know with that said T ten that
absolutely I'm right there with you. Thirteen to one to
win out right, He's actually to be fair to him,
he's actually won this event before. I believe he won
last year. Davis um. Thirteen to one though on this
(23:38):
field is brutal, a brutal number. I would not do
thirteen till one outright, Patrick Candley. I would do T
ten Patrick Canley, Uh yeah, I can I can confirm
that that Can'tley did win this event last season took
the took the the win down at this event, and UM,
you know I I certainly interested in that. Okay, let's
(24:01):
go ahead and get into some of the deep guys
in the top twenty markets. Uh. One of the guys
that that I love for this market is our boy
Hollywood Tom Hogi. He was of course a guest on
the take cast, but also a guy who has seen
his form, you know, like this is the best official
World Golf ranking position he's ever been in. Last year,
(24:22):
he ended the year at two. Right now he's at one.
Uh is not on a great run right now, missing
the cut two times since the restart, but overall basically
playing the the best golf of his career. You were
getting pretty decent odds for him in the T twenty markets.
You know, you're getting about ten eleven to one for him.
(24:43):
So I so I really like that one. Do you
have Do you have a sleeper for us here in
the T twenty markets? I mean I can't really say
those guys a sleeper, but like Paul Casey, it's that's
like it's almost insta, it's almost out right. There's absolutely
no way this guy cannot put to save his life. Um,
(25:06):
incredible irons player will really strike the ball and put
himself in position, uh you know, to compete. But that's
where I'm at, Like top twenty, I think he's a
great bat um outwrite winner, no chance, no chance. Uh yeah,
I mean so in the in the T twenty markets,
I you know, I think you um, I think you
(25:26):
make a a great point here because there are a
lot of people who are going to look at the
Paul Casey number this week and bet him out right,
because you know, Paul Casey is solid t degreen, solid
preaching the green, solid around the green. But you know,
plus two ninety for a T twenty, that's like a
super super reasonable wager. He can get a T twenty
without putting really well, he can get a T twenty
(25:48):
without you know, saving a ton of strokes around the green.
Like that's just a super solid week for him as
a as a as a T twenty. So, uh, you know,
we are going to continue looking at all of these markets. Uh.
You know, some of the other T twenty guys I
like deeper Troy Merritt, Joel Damon, I really like them.
Noted data golf favorite how tong Lee at plus seven
(26:10):
fifty but we're gonna go ahead and head into our
second break here on the Daily Road to Hour on
sports Grid TV. When we return, we are going to
look at some more of the interesting markets on FanDuel,
gonna look at the mad cut markets. Maybe we'll even,
uh maybe we'll even make a parlay for everyone on air,
and we'll see you guys in a few minutes. Sports
(26:32):
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. M M you're watching Sports Screen. Hello everyone,
(27:05):
and welcome back from break Here on the Daily Road
to Hour on Sportscred TV. I am Davis Mannicks be
joined by Christopher Pachecko. We are sitting here on the
FanDuel Sports Book taking a look at all the different
ways that that we can, you know, make money and uh,
you know, just all the ways that we can get
money down on the Memorial Championship played at at Mirfield
(27:27):
Village and the Vandel Sports Book has a couple odds boosts.
I think you, I think you definitely should be betting
these uh Tiger Woods to make the cut at the Memorial. Uh,
this is a plus one hundred so even money for
Tiger to make the cut. You know, the the true
odds for this are, you know, way better. Data Golf
has it as Tiger is UH minus two sixties seven
(27:51):
to make the cut. So you are getting basically you're
getting a free twenty five cents of value on this wage.
I would I would encourage the folks to go out
and and wager that one. Vandel for sure that that's
that might be the easiest one of all the ones
we've mentioned thus far. Davis like, it feels like it's
it's such a lock for it to happen like Tigers.
(28:14):
But I almost feel like Tigers specifically wanted to wait
for this tournament in order for him to play like
it's it's not very surprising that he hasn't played on
the restart, but he's gonna play in rrory Field and
and pretty much his event where he's won seven times. Yeah. Now,
the other tiger Wood centric odd boost that Vanduel is offering,
(28:34):
I would I would not bet this. It's Tiger to
beat Rory and Brooks Kepta in round one at three one.
It's a totally fair odds boost. It's just not one
I would be making because if that happens, it means
that after day one I'm going to be tilting my
face off that Rory did not have a good round.
I need Rory to be beating Tiger pretty much all
(28:54):
four rounds this weekend for me to be having a
good time to checko fair enough, I think, given Rory's
form for quite a while now, I you know, I
have a difficult time with this one as well. Um,
I have a much much easier time with the make
the cut that uh, you know, beating Rory and Brooks
(29:16):
round one tough. It is one round of golf, though,
and one round of golf pretty much anything can happen.
But personally I wouldn't make this better. Uh yeah, I
think I think that's um, I think that's probably fair.
One of the other odds boost Bryson, j T or
Rory to lead after round one. That's eight fifty one
with the odds boosts on fan duel. I think you
(29:39):
I think you booked that right now. That that is
one I am super interested in and obviously, Uh, you
know you're getting You're getting a ton of access value there.
I'm I'm I'm super in on that one. That's plus
eight fifty that Yeah, yeah, I feel like that's pretty
darn good value. Um again, it's it's after round one though,
(30:00):
after I mean one round of golf. It's so unpredictable,
but plus eight fifty, Like damn, I feel like that's
really like, that's really great value. I would make that one.
I would make that one. I would make um, Tiger
makes the cut. I would not make Tiger to beat
froorri or Brooks round one. I think we were pretty
much in agreement and all of those. Yeah, um okay,
(30:20):
let's let's dive into something we have never talked about
on the show before, but something that I love, which
is first round leader. And there is a really specific
way to bet on first round leaders, which is you
never want to bet the favorites. You know, you don't
want to bet Bryson, you don't want to bet j T.
And I don't even think you want to bet guys
like Nieman or Sergio. I think pretty much all the
(30:42):
time first round leaders, you want to be betting guys.
Way deeper in these markets and on daily Roado. Actually, uh,
in our golf and our golf betting tools, we actually
have you know, betting tools for the first round leader markets.
Have you have you ever used these? Personally? No, I've
never used those. I'm excited to, uh, I'm excited to see,
(31:03):
you know, seeing what they spit out. Yeah. So some
of the some of the odds that we view as
super plus e V we have Ryan Moore as a
first round leader, Von Taylor as a first round leader,
Scottie Scheffler as a first round leader. I actually think
I am not gonna play Scheffler in DFS this week.
(31:23):
I'm finally gonna I'm finally gonna get away at a
hundred to one on the Vandel Sports Book, though, I
think I'm I think I'm booking Scheffler as as the
as a first round leader because I can easily see
him posting a sixty four on Thursday in a seventy
eight on Friday and missing the cup going full Keygan
pretty much. I can absolutely see that as well. Um,
(31:47):
I know our stuff likes Cheffler a little bit. Again, well, personally,
I'm I don't know. It makes me uneasy but I
add a hundred to one uh to to lead round one,
Like I think that's I think ups totally acceptable. What
about what about Benny Anne like he he almost made
the cut there? David's like he he had an awful
(32:09):
first round and then like stormed right back and almost
made the cut. Then I think there was like a
thunderstorm that happened which led to a to a stoppage
a play, and then you know after that he didn't
have it going anymore. But he's I believe he's seventy
five to one to be first round leader. What are
what are your thoughts there? Um, Benny is like the
(32:29):
classic type of guy that you like to bet as
first round leader because you just want to bet the
guys who are as volatile as possible, who are you know,
basically not good putters, but give themselves opportunities to make putts,
like guys who gained a ton of strokes TV Green
but do not gain a ton of strokes putting like
because basically you just want to catch lightning in a
bottle once and you want to be betting those guys,
(32:51):
you know, as deep as possible because the name of
the game here. Pacheco is just really you just want
to hit one of these about once every like ten tournaments,
and if you do that, you should kind of end
up profitable on them for the years. So I'm not
I'm not in love with his number for Benn, but
I I do love the I do love the concept
and style of him as a first round leader. Yeah,
(33:16):
I don't. I mean, I don't think it's I don't
think it's an awful number. I think I certainly think
it's a very interesting name because I do think it
fits that profile that you mentioned. Um, this is an
even grosser one, so you probably won't like it. Keegan Bradley,
who cannot put's he's he can't put um right. But
his ball striking is ridiculous. Like what if just for
(33:38):
one round he could put like he he doesn't even
have to gain a lot of strokes. I'm talking just
like gain one stroke or maybe just just be even
like you just don't lose strokes, uh, strokes putting like
I think I had a hundreds of one. I'm willing
to entertain that. But in this field, like it's really tough,
it's really tough for him to compete, you know, all
(34:00):
four rounds and he's not gonna be able to put no.
I actually I actually love that one. I think Keegan
a hundred to one is really solid. Some of the
other guys that I think that you can you can
bet Windham Clark a hundred and twenty two one, Carlos
Ortiz hundred and forty two one. Um, I think you
can bet Danny Lee and Danny McCarthy a hundred and
(34:20):
sixty one. Like really, you're just looking at guys who
you know have the ability to make birdie putts like that.
That really is that really is kind of the the
entire name of name of the game. And the way
that I bet these is I literally bet um like
quarter units on them sometimes not even that much. Like
I kind of look at how many guys I want
to bet. So if I want to bet eight guys,
(34:42):
if I want to bet six guys, and I just
do one unit total, like cumulatively, So I will take
what is one unit size for me divided by the
number of guys that I want to bet, and then
you know, just play small, like very small wagers on
these guys essentially, So let me ask you a question,
what if what if this course, like you know, what
(35:02):
if the roughest, like you know, really really tough this week,
Like what if all of a sudden, this this course
is not going to play as easy as it did
last week, and say, you know, instead of having the
first round leader be uh, you know shooting like a
six or seven under, it's like a like a three
(35:22):
under or two under. Do you think some of these
olds have a chance. Yeah, that's so interesting, right, Yeah,
So so if the if the winning score at the
end of day one is minus two instead of minus seven,
Charles Howell could do that, right, Um, Nick Taylor could
be the first round leader. Jimmy Walker could be the
(35:42):
first round leader. So that might be you know if
we're uh, you know, maybe we start seeing some tweets
Wednesday morning about like oh, you know, uh, you know,
the greens are really fast, the rough is like you know,
like let's say it rained on Tuesday, um at Admirfield
and the rough gets a little bit longer than they anticipated. Like, yeah,
I I actually love that as like a little strategy
(36:03):
and like I'm gonna go bet I'm gonna go bet
Zack Johnson first round leader because I think this course
is going to be super difficult because otherwise, right, those
guys would not have a chance if the golf course
plays like it did last week, forget about it. This
would be a very specific thing where you're you're saying,
I believe the course is gonna play much tougher. Therefore,
(36:24):
some of these these guys are going to have a
chance to compete for first round leader maybe, like maybe
even like a Steve Stricker at a hundred and forty
two to one, like he he actually played very well,
I know he did in the first round. After that,
you know, he couldn't really put much together, but like
he made the cut. Uh, I think it was until
(36:46):
it was until Sunday where he was like T twenty
for for most most of the tournament. So at a
hundred forty two one, I actually don't hate it. But again,
you're gonna need the course to play a little bit
tougher for some of these guys to compete. Um, yeah,
I mean you you definitely will. And that's uh, that's
actually so that's like a tool that you can mess
around with in the daily road optimizer. You can adjust
(37:08):
you know, kind of the expected scoring value. Um. So,
I guess another thing that we should mention about the
first round leader markets is that uh that that dead
heat rules apply, So like, this is the first time
you ever hit a first round leader and this happens
to you, it's absolutely brutal. So let's say, for example,
(37:28):
Scottie Scheffler and Mark Leishman both shoot minus uh like
like minus seven on the on the first day of
the Memorial Tournament, and you're sitting there with your Scottie
Scheffler ticket at a hundred to one, Well, you're getting
paid out at fifty two one. You're because he has
a share of the lead. I've seen this happen to
people before in our daily Rhodos slack channel, where you know,
(37:50):
we're all sitting there sweating out the first round leaders,
and uh, it's absolutely heartbreaking to to take that l
you know because obviously you you want to hit the
first round leader. You you don't want to be you
don't want to be splitting out with anyone. So the
that's another reason why you know, betting Bennie and seventy
one Patrick red one. Like if you you hit that
(38:11):
and then you get that number cut in half, like
you're you're absolutely hating yourself. That's really tough. See I
I didn't know it would cut your number and a half,
which would then make just even more sense to go along,
Like and now I see your strategy of just trying
to get guys that are like a hundred and you know,
hundreds of one or even deeper than that, because cutting
(38:32):
the number in half is like very very significant. Yeah,
yeah it is. I mean cutting that number in half
is um you know, is absolutely significant. So that being said,
you know, when you are going into these markets, you
need to be you need to be careful about what
you're betting. You know, I would certainly not I would
not tell you to go all in in these first
round leader markets. I would tell you to really try
(38:53):
and parcel them out, you know, bet guys deeper than
a hundred to one, uh, you know, maybe find ways
to uh you know, if there ever is odds boost
for the first round leader market, I would definitely take
advantage of that. On the Vanduel Sports Book. So we
are going to go ahead and head into our final
break here on the Daily Road to Hour. When we return,
we are going to take a look at some of
(39:13):
the tournament matchups and the make or miscut markets as well,
and then we will go ahead and round out our
Memorial tournament analysis here on the Daily Road to Hour
on Sports Grade TV. So we will see you guys
in just a few minutes on the other side of bride.
Sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your
(39:35):
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to
our final segment here on the Daily Road to Hour
(39:55):
on Sports Grade TV. I am Davis Mannock joined by
Christopher Prochecko. Right now we are breaking down all of
the markets on the FanDuel Sports Book for the Memorial
Invitational at Millfield Village. But Checko, you wanted to cover
a few DFS plays before we looked at some of
these other props that we have for the invitational. Oh
(40:17):
my god, dude, we can have an entire show on
the f S plays because there's there's just simply so
much to talk about. Um, here's the name that I
know you don't like much Like every single time I
feel like I see you doing a doll show, You're
just saying, oh, HEYDECKI, you know, I'm just gonna I'm
(40:39):
just gonna I'm gonna negative boost them to you know,
just to put them in line with this other guy
or Hydeckis is not as good. You know, YadA, YadA, YadA. Listen, Davis,
Hideki has been playing very very well again, which is,
you know, to no one, surprise maybe to you, though
(41:01):
to me, not very surprising at all. Uh. This is
over the last you know, thirty six rounds. Uh. He's
he ranked six in ball striking uh and he ranked
second and strokes gained approach. Uh. Strokes gained approach is
one of the like the key elements that I think
is very important on this course. So it's not surprising
(41:23):
to me that Hideki has done very well in this
course in the past. Uh. He did like he did
he like twenty two um last week like he he
he was playing you know pretty well. The biggest thing
with Hdeki is the putter has been got awful, um
like even worse than before. Uh. He ranks a hundred
and twenty four in strokes game putting, specifically over the
(41:46):
last thirty six rounds. So I'm simply saying, if for
one you know, just one event he can find the putter. Um,
I think he's going to compete, like he has the
upside to potentially win this event. And looking at his
DraftKings price act, he's ninety four hundred, and I know
Data Golf loves him. I'm backing that playoff big time
(42:09):
this week. And I'm also backing up John ram Like
right there at ninety three hundred, you could argue like,
given that Ramis is a better play than than Hideki,
he's just a much better DFS value because he's ninety
three hundred on DraftKings. I know those are two guys
that you don't like much, David, but I think, uh,
in DFS this week, those two guys are really good
(42:31):
plays in my opinion. So I I agree with you,
they are good plays. But this is why I won't
have a ton of exposure to them. Hoveland is hundred
and Zander is ninety two hundred, and I just like
those dudes better. Like Hoveland has been the best player
on Tour Tita Green in terms of strokes gain since
the restart, you know, even better than Hideki. And he
(42:53):
also is a better putter than Hideki is, and Zander
is basically just like, uh, he crushes everything. Like if
you look at a strokes gain category, Xander is elite
at it strokes sand off, the te strokes gaining around
the green stroke gaine approach to the the green strokes gain putting.
He does everything well like that. That really is just
his game. And uh, you know, also, I you know,
(43:15):
I think there is kind of like a little bit
to be said on just valuing certain guys long term
form and writing those guys week after weeks so that
you're not always just chasing whatever just happened. And Hoveln
and Xander are two guys that I have long term
belief and so I just end up playing those guys
week over a week instead of trying to you know,
chase whoever did the best last week? And and and
(43:37):
you know, I think Adeki is gonna have uh, you know,
Hideki is gonna have some boosted ownership this week compared
to how he's done in the past because he was
so good last week. Yeah, he he was good last week. Um,
you know, over the last few events, like he has
been okay, But like in general, I still think he's
(43:58):
he's a very a player. I thought last week, you know,
he played. He played pretty darn well, Um, Like I
think Vic Victor Hovelin, it's pretty insane, right, Tita Green.
I believe he is the first player ever in the
PGA Tour history where he's led to Tita Tita Green
statistic the reconsecutive weeks. So over the last three weeks,
(44:22):
he's he's you know, he's been first. He's ranked first
in Tea Green, which is it's really absurd. Um. I
don't have anything against Victor Hoveland. I think the price
tag feels pretty accurate. But given the fact that he's
played so well since the restarted, and he seems to
he seems to be elevating his game every week. I
(44:43):
thought last week, you know, seeing him be he was
he was actually leading the tournament. Davis in the fourth
round once Justin Thomas started the stumble a little bit,
um and and then I think the nerves got to him. Ben.
I mean, this is a really young guy, and I
think he's super young. And I think, and this is
the topic guy like Morikawa where he seems to be
(45:04):
putting it all together right in front of us. He's
gonna put it together in front of like very very soon,
like he's already contending in these big events. At some
point he's gonna be He's gonna win. Yeah, yeah, I agree,
like yeah, that's that is completely the way I feel
about it. I think at some point he is um,
he is gonna win. So I want to look at
some of these tournament matchups on the Vanduel Sports book.
(45:27):
I think this is a great way to get a
sweat in on guys that maybe you don't necessarily want
to bet outright. And also, uh, there is Pacheco. There
is nothing better than hitting like a six match parlay.
I literally think it's probably only happened to me like
once or twice ever where I was able to parlay
a bunch of these matchups together and and hit the winner.
(45:50):
But I I want to go here. I want to
start with Rory versus Can't Lay. Rory is minus one twelve,
can't Lay is minus one ten. Which side are we
taking there? I'm taking Rory, Yeah, I think I think
I'm gonna take Rory there too. And I think that
price is exceedingly fair. You know, I think that you
(46:11):
know the fact that the fact that Rory has been
the best player in the world for so long you
know kinda. I think people just get bored. People just
get bored with how good he is. People, you know,
think about how he plays bad on uh, you know,
he thinks about he thinks about how people like uh,
they think about how he plays bad on Sundays sometime.
So you know, I think that I think that definitely
(46:32):
plays in. Okay, Hoveland versus Web Hovelin minus one fourteen
Web minus one oh five? Which side are we taking?
Oh my goodness, that's another tough one. Um, given Victor's
uh recent form, which he could argue is like, if
not the best and tour maybe second best. I don't know,
(46:54):
it's it's up there. Um, I'm going to go with
Victor here. He played this course last week, played very well. Um.
I think Webb is going to have issues when it
comes to the off the tea game, which is something
that he struggled with in the past and this year
as well. Yeah, I I completely agree. Okay, some of
(47:16):
the other really interesting ones we have, uh, Daniel Berger
versus Abraham answer your boy, your boy Daniel Burger, Which
which direction we go in there? Daniel Burger minus answer
plus one. So I think I'm gonna go answer with
this one because I think you're getting getting a good price. Yeah,
(47:37):
you're getting a really good price, and that that's ultimately
what it comes down to it. Like I think these
two players, they even said it might not be like
they might be closer than people think. Um, answer has
balled out. Uh, he's he's like he's been playing really well.
Uh and A plus one hundred I really liked that price. Yeah, okay,
(47:58):
we have again a very interesting concept here on the
Fanguel Sports Book of group betting, and this group is
uh is sickening to try and find the right answer
for Bryson plus one JT plus two thirty Rory plus
three d can't lay plus three twenty? Which which which
(48:19):
guy are you taking there? Oh my goodness, dude, that's
that's really tough. Um, I'm gonna go. I I honestly
think the best uh price, And it might not be
by a whole lot, but I think Rory is probably
getting the best price here. What wouldn't you agree? Uh? Yeah,
I think Rory is the I think Rory is a
(48:41):
is a kind of a slam dunk here, Like I
don't know, God, slam dunk is I don't know, if
not slam dunk, but just a really good price. I
think it is a really good price. Um God, Like
I want to find something that I like. Like I'm
I'm betting on on Brice Sin but like dude, he's
he's the leader on everything. Which it's fair. I mean,
(49:04):
it's very fair. It's just I wish I could get
a good like something that I could bet on, you know,
on Bryson. Yeah, I mean we just we just aren't
gonna we aren't gonna get good Bryson prices for a
while like that. That just is uh, that's just kind
of the way it goes where it's It's just it's
just not gonna happen. Okay, I want to I want
to go here to uh some make or miss the
(49:26):
cut bets because I got a spicy take here Brooks
kept to miss the cut plus two fifteen. I'm betting this.
I like it. I love it. Brooks is Uh, he
just he's not feeling it right now. He just he
just does not have he just does not have his
game with him right now to the full extent that
that we want him to have it. I mean, oh wow,
(49:50):
Like the thing is all the other names, like there's
no way. You're picking Bryson to me as the Cut.
You're not picking J T. T Me as the cut,
Rory Tiger Victor. Um. Like those are names that you're
you're you're probably unlikely to click. So I can understand
why you'd say, Um, you know, Brooks to Miss the
Cut is probably the best one among all of them. Um,
(50:13):
I'm not. I'm not gonna go there. Like I think
Brooks has the motivation this week, Like I feel like
not enough people are talking about him and like that's
enough for him to go out there and and and play. Well,
I'm not going to click on on Brooks them as
the cut. I'm out on that one. He's out, He's
not He's not doing it, folks. He's not doing it, folks. Okay,
what about what about Shane Lowry to Miss the Cut
(50:36):
plus one sixteen? Yeah, like I would, I would like
bet that one instead of the Brooks one. I mean,
if you're not getting a ton of value, But I
think that's the name I'm most confident among all the
names here on the list, it has to be Shane Lowry.
Come on, yeah, um, okay, we have we have We'll
(50:58):
close here with some Tiger specials, even this is his tournament.
Tiger Woods to have one bogey free round in the
tournament plus five seventy It's gonna be tough, par seventy two,
very difficult course, but he gets four cracks at it.
Can we have a bogey free round for one? Mr?
Tiger Woods Lt. Gray. No, I'm gonna go with no
(51:23):
on this one. All right, we're skipping it. Tiger to
make one eagle plus one thirty four. I think you
gotta bet this one. There there are four part fives.
He's gonna have at least eight chances at them, probably sixteen.
I think you. I think you gotta go with that one.
That might be the best one out of all the
Tiger specials, Like relative to value is probably the best one. Now,
(51:47):
if you don't want to bet on the bogey free,
do you bet Tiger Woods to make a double bogey
or worse in the tournament? Plus three ten? Uh? Well,
plus three ten is no? Right? Plus plus three plus
three ten is oh? Yeah, okay? So so well, well
that's interesting. Plus plus I would I would assume that
(52:09):
these prices would be reverse. That's a that's an interesting one. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
because yes, like I'm not getting much value here, Like
I don't know, I feel like I would bow out
of this one entirely. I agree. All right, everyone, Well,
there we go. That was a thorough analysis of all
of the available betting markets for the Memorial Invitational at
(52:32):
Mirrorfield Village. This has been Davis Maddock and Christopher Pacheco.
Of course, if you guys are interested in getting action down,
we would encourage you to go to the Vandal Sports
Book and do that. Good luck on your bets and
we will see you back tomorrow. Sports grid dot Com
Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our
(52:53):
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more. Want
the edge to get on the grid. Sports grid dot
Com
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to the
(00:20):
daily Road to Hour here on Sports Grade TV. I'm
Davis Mannith joint today by Christopher Pacheco, and we are
actually going to dive back into the Memorial Championship played
this week at mere Field Village. We did yesterday's show
on the topic, really a DFS focus show with myself
and Colin Drew. But but checko, you've been grinding out
(00:42):
in these PGA streets ill. I also think that, um,
if there was ever gonna be weak for us to
double up on golf shows, this would be a great
one because I think this is such an interesting experiment
where they are playing the exact same course mere Field
Village that they played last week for the Workday Charity
Open and did in a playoff between Justin Thomas and
(01:03):
Colin Morikawa. They're supposedly making the course a little bit
more difficult, but you know, I saw some I saw
some math done on strength of field, and really this
is even stronger than like the p g A Championship
and the British Open in terms of total strength of
field like this, this may this might end up being
the most difficult tournament all year essentially in terms of
(01:24):
strength of field. So I think I saw somewhere on
Twitter that this field Davis is the stronger than the
last eight Masters, just to put things into perspective, um,
which is pretty absurd. And yes, I think they are.
They are making an effort to make the course play tougher. Uh.
(01:48):
My belief is that they're they're not going to cut
the rough, so you know, it might be a little
bit more difficult uh this week. But I think the
biggest thing to mention when it comes to the course
is to of the field. It's going to be absurd.
The talent level that we have out there, Yeah it is.
It is going to be absurd, And you know, I
think that, Um, you know, I think one of the largest,
(02:11):
the largest things this week is going to be figuring
out who is able to play out of the rough,
because that's basically gonna be one of the biggest differences
week over week and you know, looking at the top
of the outright markets on the Fandel sports book, I
think the markets are definitely telling us that distance and
being able to hit out of the rough is gonna
be super important, because we see Bryson j T can't lay, Rory,
(02:35):
Dustin Johnson, John rom you know, kind of all there
at the top of the betting markets. But you know, Jecko,
I thought the thing that was most interesting was Tiger Woods,
who you know that. I think they get price Tiger
Woods at eight to one at this event, and he
would still be getting public action. But the FanDuel sports
book has Tiger priced all the way down at to one,
(02:56):
which seems crazy to me. So it's so my belief
is that this is the first event that Tigers played
since the COVID situation, right since the restart. UM. Not
that that's overly meaningful. He did play the match, but
that doesn't count as an official PGA Tour event or
anything like that. UM. Personally, I'm not overly concerned about
(03:21):
the fact that he's he's had all this rest I
think of anything that that doesn't you know, that that's
better for him, is especially given all the injuries that
he's had. Over the years with the back and whatnot.
So um at seven to one, Davis, It's it's still
very tempting. I wouldn't be surprised if you know early
(03:43):
Thursday this number comes down to like to one to one.
So while you can I would hammer Tiger at twenty
seven to one on Vandal sports book, You're you're in
on Tigers. So so my my opinion is, I guess,
first off, is this event is going to be one
by a star, you know, I just I don't think
this is an event we're gonna see Joakie Neeman and
(04:05):
you know, Paul Casey and Kevin Kisner competing events that
are this strong. You know, it's like it's it's gonna
play like a major. The course is gonna play tough.
There's gonna be loads of pressure on guys on Sunday.
So you know, for me, I I think it is
exceedingly exceedingly likely that we get a winner from inside one.
I actually have only made three bets this week in
(04:26):
the outright market. I think that the T twenty markets
are way better. So I I just I want you
to respond to all of these wagers and tell me
what you think of them. The first wager I made
Rory McElroy fourteen to one. I decided to pass on
Bryce in this week. UH take the extra four points
there with Rory McElroy and and book him to win.
(04:49):
I'm in on Roria fourteen to one. I am not
in on Bryson attent to one. And I know that's
not a bet that you made, but just a playing myself.
Like Bryson has been right, just otherworldly. Uh, just to
throw some numbers at you. UH strokes game off the
t uh in twenty he's ranking first, UH shots strokes
(05:15):
game T to green, He's he rings sixth overall. UH.
Putting has been exceptional. I mean there's there's like nothing.
He hasn't really done all that well except hasn't played
great around the green. But when you're that long and
you make putts, you're gonna do incredible. So it's not
very surprising to see Bryson do this well. The biggest
(05:37):
challenge is that he's priced all the way up at ten,
and at that point it's just not very interesting. I
think Rory at fourteen to one, UH, even DJ at
fifteen to one are more interesting bets. Yeah, I mean,
what a bummer, for Dustin to have completely ruined his number.
You know, so he wins two weeks ago, you know,
(05:57):
beats Brennan Todd in that final grouping on Sunday, and uh,
when he went off at that tournament in a much
weaker field, he was to one wins that event. I
actually think had DJ, you know, just grinded out like
a T eight team that week, I think he would
have been priced with Ricky Fowler this week. And I
think we could have bet Dustin Johnson at like forty
(06:18):
two one this week. But yeah, to me, I mean
I thought that Rory at fourteen to one shorter than
Patrick can't lay shorter than Justin Tomas, shorter than Bryceon,
I thought was easy. I mean, to me, Rory is
still the best player in the world. And you know,
if you you look at his track record, he generally
wins about three times a year on the p g
A tour, you know, sometimes a little bit more. He's
(06:38):
had seasons with more, he's had seasons with less. But uh,
you know, Rory also does really well in strong field events.
So I felt very confident about that wager I I did,
though I passed on DJ, passed on Moriy Cowell with
the repeat win. I know a lot of people are
going to be interested in rom I passed on him.
Headeki and Hovland went down to Xander schiff Lee at
(06:59):
thirty one to one. By the way, this number on
the Fandel Sports book, it's it's the best you're gonna
get anywhere in the online wagering world. So I really
like that one. But Xander to me is just kind
of the classic, very good off the tea, very good strokes,
gaged approach, and you know, because kind of the weakness
of his game is around the greens and that's not
(07:20):
going to come into play that much this week. I
think we have to feel pretty pretty strong about Xander
this week. At thirty one to one, I think Xander
is a good about at one to one. I think
the biggest thing for me, Davis, is there's just someone
else I like more in that range. Let's um. I
(07:40):
think Daniel Burger at forty one. It is simply just
a little bit better of a bat uh than Xander.
I have nothing against that. I just think Burger has
been simply fantastic. H just continues to make you know,
more strides. I think over the last unund so not
(08:01):
a huge sample here, but over over the last twenty
four measured rounds, uh, you know, strokes, game total, he's
he reigns like second. Uh. He's just been a beast.
And I think at forty two one, you're getting pretty
good value there. Yeah, Burger has played seven events in
he's won one of them, he's gotten third place in
(08:22):
one of them, and he's gotten a top ten in
the other three. The only event in that that he
well so so they merit the am X uh. He
t twenty nine, the Sony Open in Hawaii, he t
thirty eight, uh, and then back in twenty nineteen. The
last time he missed a cut was at the Houston Open.
But we've basically we've seen a huge climb for him
(08:46):
in the official World Golf Ranking's kind of back to
where he was. Actually, this is the the highest he's
been since twenty seventeen, a year in which he also
won a tournament. So I I don't I don't think
that I per suddenly love the number for Burger. I
think forty one is probably a little tight for him,
(09:06):
you know, like that's deeper than Justin Rose, deeper than
female than Song j M. But I do not disagree
with the analysis at all that Burger is you know,
he probably has one of the best all around games
on tour right now. I don't. I don't really think
that's uh, I don't really think that that can be disputed.
The last wager that I've already placed for the for
(09:29):
the Memorial Invitational is Sergio Garcia. I bet it that
sixty six to one. It's a move to seventy to
one on the Vanduel Sports book, So a little couple
extra points of value there for those of you who
want to uh, you know, who want to go there.
But basically, you know, I think Sergio is you know,
not a not a particularly great putter, but he is
one of the best t de Green guys on the tour.
(09:52):
What do you think about him at seventy to one?
Do you think that's that's realistic? I think that is
very realistic. U David's surgeon has been playing really well.
Um he he doesn't have a I mean he doesn't.
He can't put right, but can't neither neither can Hideki
and Hideki, who is a better player, you know, to
(10:13):
be fair, but he's probably you know, meaningfully higher one.
And I do like Hideck as a DFS play, but
I think Sergio a seventy and seventy to one provides
really great value. I know you probably won't love this name,
but I think Patti read at fifty two one as
someone else that I think can put everything together and
(10:36):
really compete in this event with all the top names,
whereas some of the other players around that range. I'm
a bit skeptical, So I do like Patty read a
fifty two one, Sergio at seventy to one is a
great bat in my opinion. Yeah, I mean that's really
I think realistically, that's the deepest you can go. The
other guy I was kind of looking at is Matt Kucher.
(10:56):
But you know, like come down to Sunday, do we
really think that Kucher is gonna beat Rory, gonna be Bryson,
gonna be DJ you know, like it just it feels
very unlikely that, uh this, And I guess I mean
he does win sometimes, right, like he has, uh he
has at least one win every year for the last
three years. Obviously racks up the tea tens. Has had
(11:18):
seasons with multiple wins in the past, but you know,
probably at the end of the day, like this is
a prestige event. It's going to be won by a
prestige player. Yeah. I think the biggest thing for Kucher
it's it's not that I don't think he can't win
this event, although there is a lot it's very top heavy,
like there's a lot of good players on this field,
(11:39):
as we discussed earlier. I just think he doesn't really
do it for me. Off the team Davids like, he's
not he's not very long, and I think you know,
come Sunday, when you have to be long and you
have to take some risks, I don't think Cuture will
whereas some other players that are you know, something like
Bryson for example, we know what's ridiculously long. He's he's
(11:59):
going to all that far. So that's one of the
reasons why I think Kucher as a bet doesn't really
make a lot of sense for me, especially when we're
talking you know, outright winner. Yeah, and um, you know
just if you are, if you are a degenerate gambler
like some of us here are there, I will I
will toss out some super super long shots for for
us to sweat, and when we get back from the break,
(12:21):
We're gonna talk to twenties and we can talk more
about these guys, but some of the some of the
guys that are projections on Daily rodo that they like
for outright winners way deep Ryan Moore two hundred and
fifty two one, Von Taylor at four hundred and forty
two one on the FanDuel Sports Book, Bud Collie at
three hundred and fifty two one, uh, Scottie Scheffler a
(12:41):
hundred and fifty two one, Jim Ferick a hundred and
seventy to one, and the bomb of the week Sebastian
Moons four hundred and fifty two one. Our stuff has
as a plus e V outright, But we are going
to go ahead and head into our first break here
on the Daily Road to Hour on sports Cred TV.
When we return, we are to continue looking at the
betting markets for the Memorial Tournament this weekend at Merefield Village.
(13:05):
Look at the first round leaders, the top twenties, and
some of the mad cut markets at the Memorial. So
see you guys on the other side of break in
just a few minutes. Sports grid dot Com Betting insights
and Entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers the
most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive
(13:25):
betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge than
get on the grid sports grid dot com. Hello everyone,
and welcome back to the daily Road to Hours Here
on sports Gride TV. I am David Mannick joined by
Christopher Checko. Today on the show, we are breaking down
in further detail the Memorial Invitational taking place at Murfield
(13:49):
Village this week. We've already covered it on Monday show.
If you want even more content, specifically DFS Center content
with myself and Colin Drew, you can watch that on
demand on sports grade dot com. But right now, Pacheco,
we are looking at the outright and some of the
other gambling markets on the Vanduel Sports book this week
for the Memorial Tournament. Are there are some other outrights
(14:10):
that you are looking at? There are and I I
don't think that you're going to like these names. I
really don't. John rom One is someone that I don't
think you you have interest in betting here or potentially
even you know, playing a lot of in DFS. Just
(14:33):
just knowing you, I don't think you're like a huge
ram supporter. I I am not a huge RUM supporter,
but I fully acknowledge that realistically there's not that much
of a difference between Bryson and Rom. I just have
I have pledged my allegiance to one of these guys
and have not pledged my allegiance to the other. And
it's it's really kind of that simple. But I don't
(14:54):
I don't hate the rom bet at all. And obviously
it's a better number than you're getting with Rory or
with Bryson. Yeah. So it's it really comes down to
the like, do you believe that the eid under he
shot on Sunday last week in the same course. Uh,
you know, do you have any confidence that maybe he
(15:14):
just kind of figured he kind of figured it all out,
um on that round because previous to that, Davis he
really he was playing okay, but he wasn't playing like
a top five player in the world. Uh. And he's
gonna have to play like a top five player in
the world here, Uh if you're betting him to win
out right. Uh. The thing with Roman, sometimes you know,
(15:37):
he's he's inconsistent. Sometimes he tilts, and you don't know
what kind of version you're getting. But I think at one,
I'm willing to take that risk. The other one that
I think is certainly worth talking about is Web Simpson.
One a guy that is not He's not long at all,
so from a driving distance perspective that you know that
(15:59):
could be an issue. Hasn't really done incredibly well on
this course in the past. But Davis coming into this event,
this dude has played like one of the best golfers
in the entire world. Uh. He's made you know, a
good amount of strides this season. Uh, continues to put
ridiculously well, which could mask any sort of issues he
(16:21):
could have off the te um. Do you believe that
Web Simpson is a top five player in the world,
because Data Golf believes that that is the case now,
and he's not priced like a top five player in
the world. So my take on this is that right
now Web might be a top five guy in the world,
(16:43):
like he might be playing that well. His results might
indicate that, but I would not be, you know, really
tremendously surprised if you know, a year from now, we
are thinking about him like you know, a guy, Uh,
let's let's say, like Billy Horshell. Uh, Danny Willett, Henrik
Stenson like a guy who had or Francesco Millinari, like
(17:06):
a guy who just destroyed golf courses for a year,
for for eighteen months, and then once the putter kind
of left him, then that that form faded really really quickly.
That's that's kind of how I feel about Web Simpson,
where yeah, he might be great right now and you
might feel, you know, kind of burnt by by not
having him at you know, by not betting on him,
(17:27):
by not playing him in dfs, But you know, over
the course of time, I think if you fade guys
like Web, you are likely going to end up making money.
But like, here's the thing, totally understand you on the
putting thing, right Like, at some point I feel like
that skill has to deteriorate to be fair to Web
(17:48):
he has like that skill has always been there for him.
It's other aspects of his golf game that really haven't
been there. Um, he's always been a great putter and
a great irons player. And that's like if you look
over his last fifty rounds, twenty four rounds, no matter
the sample size that you're looking at, you're also going
(18:09):
to see phenomenal ball striking at a WEB so, you know, Davis,
to counter what you're saying, even I think even if
if the putter fails him at some point, I think
his ball striking is so good that it's it's not
going to deteriorate his game to a level where he's
just like he's just another guy. Um. The real question is,
(18:31):
you know, do you believe he's the top five player? Uh?
Moving forward this year? I'm I'm a little bit skeptical
because top five, I mean, there's so much talent, including
some of the younger guys like Hovelin Morikawa that we
haven't really hit on. UM, So the top five is tough.
But right now Data Golf believes that that is the case,
and I'm willing to believe that given all the strikes
(18:54):
that I've seen him make this year. Yeah, And I
think what you are we're just addressing is why, UM,
you know why I don't want to be investing in
Web that you know, long term, I feel like those
dollars are better invested in Hoveland, better invested in Morikawa,
better invested in Zander, better invested in and in Burger.
In answer, like, I just think I think I want
(19:16):
to get those guys on the way up as opposed
to Webb, who I think, you know, might already be
on the way down. We might have already seen Webb's
peak if we did. Um. If that is the case,
it really was a phenomenal peak. Like if this is
the best that we're gonna see out of him, I
really don't think that he's going to improve much off
the tea. If if that is a case. Uh, you know,
(19:39):
he he flashed the ceiling of being a top five
player in the world, which is pretty damn good. Yeah, yeah,
I I definitely think that. Uh. I definitely think that
it's true. I might I might, um, you know, I
might like web more for like a top ten that
Pacheco on the Fatal Sports book he is uh plus
two thirty so two point three to one ten dollars
(20:01):
returns twenty three dollars on the Vandal Sports Book for
a t tin. I think I think I might prefer
that to you know, uh an outright win basically uh,
which is by the way, this week, specifically with how
strong the field is, I I really like betting in
some of these alternate markets. Here's the thing. As much
(20:21):
as I as I just houted Webb, and I think
he might be. He really might be a sneaky tournament
play on draft kings on this field. I just don't
expect a lot of people to to be on him
given all the all the fantastic plays that we have
ahead of them. Um to one. You know, it is
a little bit steep, especially considering that you have Tiger
(20:42):
right there at to one like that, that's really difficult
because you know Tiger has I think he's won this
event seven times, David, seven times. You know, how do
you how do you bet web over him in this range?
I wouldn't I personally want to if you wanted to
double down. I think web one is okay. I don't
think he's like a fantastic bet at twenty five two one.
(21:05):
I think he might be a little bit better of
a T ten as you mentioned play, I think he
might be a little bit better of a DFS play
than an out right back. Yeah, are there any other
outrights that that you are super interested in before we
move on to some of the other alternate markets? Sun
(21:27):
j M At sixty five to one. I feel growth
for saying that, given you know what we've seen. I
don't know of late, but uh, sixty five to one,
like if he if he could just put it all together,
Like I feel like, um, he the only thing he
lacks his consistency. Um, if he could just put it
all together, you know, in in one tournament, I think
(21:51):
he has the upside to potentially win. So it's sixty
five to one. I don't mind it as a you know,
as a dark throw. Yeah, so that you know, the
issue with song Jay is, uh, he since the restart,
his form has just been disgusting. You know, he's been
he's he's been one of these dudes who just has
not been able to put it together. And you know,
(22:12):
there are you know, I'm sure there are a lot
of different reasons for that. Uh. Song Jay is notably
like one of the biggest grinders on tour, like that guy.
That guy absolutely loves to practice golfing. And you know,
I think that uh, I think that the break did
not do him a ton of favors. But I I
want to go here and look in the top ten markets. Um.
(22:34):
So first off, you know, if you did want to
wager on Bryson in a way that uh, you know,
is is not going to leave you having to root
against some of your other guys, like I, I actually
don't hate, you know, betting Bryson, betting can't laid betting
DJ for top tens, maybe even um, maybe even parlaying
them on the Vanduel Sports book like this would probably
(22:54):
be where I would bet those guys and like literally
bet them like a football game, Like okay, I'm to
be placing a you know, a three unit wager on
Bryson to T ten at plus one ten. I don't
think anyone loves Patrick Handley as much as you do,
like I do. I am. I am very high on
Patrick Canley, but I know you have like something like
a different type of love I do. I love him.
(23:18):
There is you know with that said T ten that
absolutely I'm right there with you. Thirteen to one to
win out right, He's actually to be fair to him,
he's actually won this event before. I believe he won
last year. Davis um. Thirteen to one though on this
(23:38):
field is brutal, a brutal number. I would not do
thirteen till one outright, Patrick Candley. I would do T
ten Patrick Canley, Uh yeah, I can I can confirm
that that Can'tley did win this event last season took
the took the the win down at this event, and UM,
you know I I certainly interested in that. Okay, let's
(24:01):
go ahead and get into some of the deep guys
in the top twenty markets. Uh. One of the guys
that that I love for this market is our boy
Hollywood Tom Hogi. He was of course a guest on
the take cast, but also a guy who has seen
his form, you know, like this is the best official
World Golf ranking position he's ever been in. Last year,
(24:22):
he ended the year at two. Right now he's at one.
Uh is not on a great run right now, missing
the cut two times since the restart, but overall basically
playing the the best golf of his career. You were
getting pretty decent odds for him in the T twenty markets.
You know, you're getting about ten eleven to one for him.
(24:43):
So I so I really like that one. Do you
have Do you have a sleeper for us here in
the T twenty markets? I mean I can't really say
those guys a sleeper, but like Paul Casey, it's that's
like it's almost insta, it's almost out right. There's absolutely
no way this guy cannot put to save his life. Um,
(25:06):
incredible irons player will really strike the ball and put
himself in position, uh you know, to compete. But that's
where I'm at, Like top twenty, I think he's a
great bat um outwrite winner, no chance, no chance. Uh yeah,
I mean so in the in the T twenty markets,
I you know, I think you um, I think you
(25:26):
make a a great point here because there are a
lot of people who are going to look at the
Paul Casey number this week and bet him out right,
because you know, Paul Casey is solid t degreen, solid
preaching the green, solid around the green. But you know,
plus two ninety for a T twenty, that's like a
super super reasonable wager. He can get a T twenty
without putting really well, he can get a T twenty
(25:48):
without you know, saving a ton of strokes around the green.
Like that's just a super solid week for him as
a as a as a T twenty. So, uh, you know,
we are going to continue looking at all of these markets. Uh.
You know, some of the other T twenty guys I
like deeper Troy Merritt, Joel Damon, I really like them.
Noted data golf favorite how tong Lee at plus seven
(26:10):
fifty but we're gonna go ahead and head into our
second break here on the Daily Road to Hour on
sports Grid TV. When we return, we are going to
look at some more of the interesting markets on FanDuel,
gonna look at the mad cut markets. Maybe we'll even,
uh maybe we'll even make a parlay for everyone on air,
and we'll see you guys in a few minutes. Sports
(26:32):
grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks, and more
want the edge than get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. M M you're watching Sports Screen. Hello everyone,
(27:05):
and welcome back from break Here on the Daily Road
to Hour on Sportscred TV. I am Davis Mannicks be
joined by Christopher Pachecko. We are sitting here on the
FanDuel Sports Book taking a look at all the different
ways that that we can, you know, make money and uh,
you know, just all the ways that we can get
money down on the Memorial Championship played at at Mirfield
(27:27):
Village and the Vandel Sports Book has a couple odds boosts.
I think you, I think you definitely should be betting
these uh Tiger Woods to make the cut at the Memorial. Uh,
this is a plus one hundred so even money for
Tiger to make the cut. You know, the the true
odds for this are, you know, way better. Data Golf
has it as Tiger is UH minus two sixties seven
(27:51):
to make the cut. So you are getting basically you're
getting a free twenty five cents of value on this wage.
I would I would encourage the folks to go out
and and wager that one. Vandel for sure that that's
that might be the easiest one of all the ones
we've mentioned thus far. Davis like, it feels like it's
it's such a lock for it to happen like Tigers.
(28:14):
But I almost feel like Tigers specifically wanted to wait
for this tournament in order for him to play like
it's it's not very surprising that he hasn't played on
the restart, but he's gonna play in rrory Field and
and pretty much his event where he's won seven times. Yeah. Now,
the other tiger Wood centric odd boost that Vanduel is offering,
(28:34):
I would I would not bet this. It's Tiger to
beat Rory and Brooks Kepta in round one at three one.
It's a totally fair odds boost. It's just not one
I would be making because if that happens, it means
that after day one I'm going to be tilting my
face off that Rory did not have a good round.
I need Rory to be beating Tiger pretty much all
(28:54):
four rounds this weekend for me to be having a
good time to checko fair enough, I think, given Rory's
form for quite a while now, I you know, I
have a difficult time with this one as well. Um,
I have a much much easier time with the make
the cut that uh, you know, beating Rory and Brooks
(29:16):
round one tough. It is one round of golf, though,
and one round of golf pretty much anything can happen.
But personally I wouldn't make this better. Uh yeah, I
think I think that's um, I think that's probably fair.
One of the other odds boost Bryson, j T or
Rory to lead after round one. That's eight fifty one
with the odds boosts on fan duel. I think you
(29:39):
I think you booked that right now. That that is
one I am super interested in and obviously, Uh, you
know you're getting You're getting a ton of access value there.
I'm I'm I'm super in on that one. That's plus
eight fifty that Yeah, yeah, I feel like that's pretty
darn good value. Um again, it's it's after round one though,
(30:00):
after I mean one round of golf. It's so unpredictable,
but plus eight fifty, Like damn, I feel like that's
really like, that's really great value. I would make that one.
I would make that one. I would make um, Tiger
makes the cut. I would not make Tiger to beat
froorri or Brooks round one. I think we were pretty
much in agreement and all of those. Yeah, um okay,
(30:20):
let's let's dive into something we have never talked about
on the show before, but something that I love, which
is first round leader. And there is a really specific
way to bet on first round leaders, which is you
never want to bet the favorites. You know, you don't
want to bet Bryson, you don't want to bet j T.
And I don't even think you want to bet guys
like Nieman or Sergio. I think pretty much all the
(30:42):
time first round leaders, you want to be betting guys.
Way deeper in these markets and on daily Roado. Actually, uh,
in our golf and our golf betting tools, we actually
have you know, betting tools for the first round leader markets.
Have you have you ever used these? Personally? No, I've
never used those. I'm excited to, uh, I'm excited to see,
(31:03):
you know, seeing what they spit out. Yeah. So some
of the some of the odds that we view as
super plus e V we have Ryan Moore as a
first round leader, Von Taylor as a first round leader,
Scottie Scheffler as a first round leader. I actually think
I am not gonna play Scheffler in DFS this week.
(31:23):
I'm finally gonna I'm finally gonna get away at a
hundred to one on the Vandel Sports Book, though, I
think I'm I think I'm booking Scheffler as as the
as a first round leader because I can easily see
him posting a sixty four on Thursday in a seventy
eight on Friday and missing the cup going full Keygan
pretty much. I can absolutely see that as well. Um,
(31:47):
I know our stuff likes Cheffler a little bit. Again, well, personally,
I'm I don't know. It makes me uneasy but I
add a hundred to one uh to to lead round one,
Like I think that's I think ups totally acceptable. What
about what about Benny Anne like he he almost made
the cut there? David's like he he had an awful
(32:09):
first round and then like stormed right back and almost
made the cut. Then I think there was like a
thunderstorm that happened which led to a to a stoppage
a play, and then you know after that he didn't
have it going anymore. But he's I believe he's seventy
five to one to be first round leader. What are
what are your thoughts there? Um, Benny is like the
(32:29):
classic type of guy that you like to bet as
first round leader because you just want to bet the
guys who are as volatile as possible, who are you know,
basically not good putters, but give themselves opportunities to make putts,
like guys who gained a ton of strokes TV Green
but do not gain a ton of strokes putting like
because basically you just want to catch lightning in a
bottle once and you want to be betting those guys,
(32:51):
you know, as deep as possible because the name of
the game here. Pacheco is just really you just want
to hit one of these about once every like ten tournaments,
and if you do that, you should kind of end
up profitable on them for the years. So I'm not
I'm not in love with his number for Benn, but
I I do love the I do love the concept
and style of him as a first round leader. Yeah,
(33:16):
I don't. I mean, I don't think it's I don't
think it's an awful number. I think I certainly think
it's a very interesting name because I do think it
fits that profile that you mentioned. Um, this is an
even grosser one, so you probably won't like it. Keegan Bradley,
who cannot put's he's he can't put um right. But
his ball striking is ridiculous. Like what if just for
(33:38):
one round he could put like he he doesn't even
have to gain a lot of strokes. I'm talking just
like gain one stroke or maybe just just be even
like you just don't lose strokes, uh, strokes putting like
I think I had a hundreds of one. I'm willing
to entertain that. But in this field, like it's really tough,
it's really tough for him to compete, you know, all
(34:00):
four rounds and he's not gonna be able to put no.
I actually I actually love that one. I think Keegan
a hundred to one is really solid. Some of the
other guys that I think that you can you can
bet Windham Clark a hundred and twenty two one, Carlos
Ortiz hundred and forty two one. Um, I think you
can bet Danny Lee and Danny McCarthy a hundred and
(34:20):
sixty one. Like really, you're just looking at guys who
you know have the ability to make birdie putts like that.
That really is that really is kind of the the
entire name of name of the game. And the way
that I bet these is I literally bet um like
quarter units on them sometimes not even that much. Like
I kind of look at how many guys I want
to bet. So if I want to bet eight guys,
(34:42):
if I want to bet six guys, and I just
do one unit total, like cumulatively, So I will take
what is one unit size for me divided by the
number of guys that I want to bet, and then
you know, just play small, like very small wagers on
these guys essentially, So let me ask you a question,
what if what if this course, like you know, what
(35:02):
if the roughest, like you know, really really tough this week,
Like what if all of a sudden, this this course
is not going to play as easy as it did
last week, and say, you know, instead of having the
first round leader be uh, you know shooting like a
six or seven under, it's like a like a three
(35:22):
under or two under. Do you think some of these
olds have a chance. Yeah, that's so interesting, right, Yeah,
So so if the if the winning score at the
end of day one is minus two instead of minus seven,
Charles Howell could do that, right, Um, Nick Taylor could
be the first round leader. Jimmy Walker could be the
(35:42):
first round leader. So that might be you know if
we're uh, you know, maybe we start seeing some tweets
Wednesday morning about like oh, you know, uh, you know,
the greens are really fast, the rough is like you know,
like let's say it rained on Tuesday, um at Admirfield
and the rough gets a little bit longer than they anticipated. Like, yeah,
I I actually love that as like a little strategy
(36:03):
and like I'm gonna go bet I'm gonna go bet
Zack Johnson first round leader because I think this course
is going to be super difficult because otherwise, right, those
guys would not have a chance if the golf course
plays like it did last week, forget about it. This
would be a very specific thing where you're you're saying,
I believe the course is gonna play much tougher. Therefore,
(36:24):
some of these these guys are going to have a
chance to compete for first round leader maybe, like maybe
even like a Steve Stricker at a hundred and forty
two to one, like he he actually played very well,
I know he did in the first round. After that,
you know, he couldn't really put much together, but like
he made the cut. Uh, I think it was until
(36:46):
it was until Sunday where he was like T twenty
for for most most of the tournament. So at a
hundred forty two one, I actually don't hate it. But again,
you're gonna need the course to play a little bit
tougher for some of these guys to compete. Um, yeah,
I mean you you definitely will. And that's uh, that's
actually so that's like a tool that you can mess
around with in the daily road optimizer. You can adjust
(37:08):
you know, kind of the expected scoring value. Um. So,
I guess another thing that we should mention about the
first round leader markets is that uh that that dead
heat rules apply, So like, this is the first time
you ever hit a first round leader and this happens
to you, it's absolutely brutal. So let's say, for example,
(37:28):
Scottie Scheffler and Mark Leishman both shoot minus uh like
like minus seven on the on the first day of
the Memorial Tournament, and you're sitting there with your Scottie
Scheffler ticket at a hundred to one, Well, you're getting
paid out at fifty two one. You're because he has
a share of the lead. I've seen this happen to
people before in our daily Rhodos slack channel, where you know,
(37:50):
we're all sitting there sweating out the first round leaders,
and uh, it's absolutely heartbreaking to to take that l
you know because obviously you you want to hit the
first round leader. You you don't want to be you
don't want to be splitting out with anyone. So the
that's another reason why you know, betting Bennie and seventy
one Patrick red one. Like if you you hit that
(38:11):
and then you get that number cut in half, like
you're you're absolutely hating yourself. That's really tough. See I
I didn't know it would cut your number and a half,
which would then make just even more sense to go along,
Like and now I see your strategy of just trying
to get guys that are like a hundred and you know,
hundreds of one or even deeper than that, because cutting
(38:32):
the number in half is like very very significant. Yeah,
yeah it is. I mean cutting that number in half
is um you know, is absolutely significant. So that being said,
you know, when you are going into these markets, you
need to be you need to be careful about what
you're betting. You know, I would certainly not I would
not tell you to go all in in these first
round leader markets. I would tell you to really try
(38:53):
and parcel them out, you know, bet guys deeper than
a hundred to one, uh, you know, maybe find ways
to uh you know, if there ever is odds boost
for the first round leader market, I would definitely take
advantage of that. On the Vanduel Sports Book. So we
are going to go ahead and head into our final
break here on the Daily Road to Hour. When we return,
we are going to take a look at some of
(39:13):
the tournament matchups and the make or miscut markets as well,
and then we will go ahead and round out our
Memorial tournament analysis here on the Daily Road to Hour
on Sports Grade TV. So we will see you guys
in just a few minutes on the other side of bride.
Sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment at your
(39:35):
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to
our final segment here on the Daily Road to Hour
(39:55):
on Sports Grade TV. I am Davis Mannock joined by
Christopher Prochecko. Right now we are breaking down all of
the markets on the FanDuel Sports Book for the Memorial
Invitational at Millfield Village. But Checko, you wanted to cover
a few DFS plays before we looked at some of
these other props that we have for the invitational. Oh
(40:17):
my god, dude, we can have an entire show on
the f S plays because there's there's just simply so
much to talk about. Um, here's the name that I
know you don't like much Like every single time I
feel like I see you doing a doll show, You're
just saying, oh, HEYDECKI, you know, I'm just gonna I'm
(40:39):
just gonna I'm gonna negative boost them to you know,
just to put them in line with this other guy
or Hydeckis is not as good. You know, YadA, YadA, YadA. Listen, Davis,
Hideki has been playing very very well again, which is,
you know, to no one, surprise maybe to you, though
(41:01):
to me, not very surprising at all. Uh. This is
over the last you know, thirty six rounds. Uh. He's
he ranked six in ball striking uh and he ranked
second and strokes gained approach. Uh. Strokes gained approach is
one of the like the key elements that I think
is very important on this course. So it's not surprising
(41:23):
to me that Hideki has done very well in this
course in the past. Uh. He did like he did
he like twenty two um last week like he he
he was playing you know pretty well. The biggest thing
with Hdeki is the putter has been got awful, um
like even worse than before. Uh. He ranks a hundred
and twenty four in strokes game putting, specifically over the
(41:46):
last thirty six rounds. So I'm simply saying, if for
one you know, just one event he can find the putter. Um,
I think he's going to compete, like he has the
upside to potentially win this event. And looking at his
DraftKings price act, he's ninety four hundred, and I know
Data Golf loves him. I'm backing that playoff big time
(42:09):
this week. And I'm also backing up John ram Like
right there at ninety three hundred, you could argue like,
given that Ramis is a better play than than Hideki,
he's just a much better DFS value because he's ninety
three hundred on DraftKings. I know those are two guys
that you don't like much, David, but I think, uh,
in DFS this week, those two guys are really good
(42:31):
plays in my opinion. So I I agree with you,
they are good plays. But this is why I won't
have a ton of exposure to them. Hoveland is hundred
and Zander is ninety two hundred, and I just like
those dudes better. Like Hoveland has been the best player
on Tour Tita Green in terms of strokes gain since
the restart, you know, even better than Hideki. And he
(42:53):
also is a better putter than Hideki is, and Zander
is basically just like, uh, he crushes everything. Like if
you look at a strokes gain category, Xander is elite
at it strokes sand off, the te strokes gaining around
the green stroke gaine approach to the the green strokes gain putting.
He does everything well like that. That really is just
his game. And uh, you know, also, I you know,
(43:15):
I think there is kind of like a little bit
to be said on just valuing certain guys long term
form and writing those guys week after weeks so that
you're not always just chasing whatever just happened. And Hoveln
and Xander are two guys that I have long term
belief and so I just end up playing those guys
week over a week instead of trying to you know,
chase whoever did the best last week? And and and
(43:37):
you know, I think Adeki is gonna have uh, you know,
Hideki is gonna have some boosted ownership this week compared
to how he's done in the past because he was
so good last week. Yeah, he he was good last week. Um,
you know, over the last few events, like he has
been okay, But like in general, I still think he's
(43:58):
he's a very a player. I thought last week, you know,
he played. He played pretty darn well, Um, Like I
think Vic Victor Hovelin, it's pretty insane, right, Tita Green.
I believe he is the first player ever in the
PGA Tour history where he's led to Tita Tita Green
statistic the reconsecutive weeks. So over the last three weeks,
(44:22):
he's he's you know, he's been first. He's ranked first
in Tea Green, which is it's really absurd. Um. I
don't have anything against Victor Hoveland. I think the price
tag feels pretty accurate. But given the fact that he's
played so well since the restarted, and he seems to
he seems to be elevating his game every week. I
(44:43):
thought last week, you know, seeing him be he was
he was actually leading the tournament. Davis in the fourth
round once Justin Thomas started the stumble a little bit,
um and and then I think the nerves got to him. Ben.
I mean, this is a really young guy, and I
think he's super young. And I think, and this is
the topic guy like Morikawa where he seems to be
(45:04):
putting it all together right in front of us. He's
gonna put it together in front of like very very soon,
like he's already contending in these big events. At some
point he's gonna be He's gonna win. Yeah, yeah, I agree,
like yeah, that's that is completely the way I feel
about it. I think at some point he is um,
he is gonna win. So I want to look at
some of these tournament matchups on the Vanduel Sports book.
(45:27):
I think this is a great way to get a
sweat in on guys that maybe you don't necessarily want
to bet outright. And also, uh, there is Pacheco. There
is nothing better than hitting like a six match parlay.
I literally think it's probably only happened to me like
once or twice ever where I was able to parlay
a bunch of these matchups together and and hit the winner.
(45:50):
But I I want to go here. I want to
start with Rory versus Can't Lay. Rory is minus one twelve,
can't Lay is minus one ten. Which side are we
taking there? I'm taking Rory, Yeah, I think I think
I'm gonna take Rory there too. And I think that
price is exceedingly fair. You know, I think that you
(46:11):
know the fact that the fact that Rory has been
the best player in the world for so long you
know kinda. I think people just get bored. People just
get bored with how good he is. People, you know,
think about how he plays bad on uh, you know,
he thinks about he thinks about how people like uh,
they think about how he plays bad on Sundays sometime.
So you know, I think that I think that definitely
(46:32):
plays in. Okay, Hoveland versus Web Hovelin minus one fourteen
Web minus one oh five? Which side are we taking?
Oh my goodness, that's another tough one. Um, given Victor's
uh recent form, which he could argue is like, if
not the best and tour maybe second best. I don't know,
(46:54):
it's it's up there. Um, I'm going to go with
Victor here. He played this course last week, played very well. Um.
I think Webb is going to have issues when it
comes to the off the tea game, which is something
that he struggled with in the past and this year
as well. Yeah, I I completely agree. Okay, some of
(47:16):
the other really interesting ones we have, uh, Daniel Berger
versus Abraham answer your boy, your boy Daniel Burger, Which
which direction we go in there? Daniel Burger minus answer
plus one. So I think I'm gonna go answer with
this one because I think you're getting getting a good price. Yeah,
(47:37):
you're getting a really good price, and that that's ultimately
what it comes down to it. Like I think these
two players, they even said it might not be like
they might be closer than people think. Um, answer has
balled out. Uh, he's he's like he's been playing really well.
Uh and A plus one hundred I really liked that price. Yeah, okay,
(47:58):
we have again a very interesting concept here on the
Fanguel Sports Book of group betting, and this group is
uh is sickening to try and find the right answer
for Bryson plus one JT plus two thirty Rory plus
three d can't lay plus three twenty? Which which which
(48:19):
guy are you taking there? Oh my goodness, dude, that's
that's really tough. Um, I'm gonna go. I I honestly
think the best uh price, And it might not be
by a whole lot, but I think Rory is probably
getting the best price here. What wouldn't you agree? Uh? Yeah,
I think Rory is the I think Rory is a
(48:41):
is a kind of a slam dunk here, Like I
don't know, God, slam dunk is I don't know, if
not slam dunk, but just a really good price. I
think it is a really good price. Um God, Like
I want to find something that I like. Like I'm
I'm betting on on Brice Sin but like dude, he's
he's the leader on everything. Which it's fair. I mean,
(49:04):
it's very fair. It's just I wish I could get
a good like something that I could bet on, you know,
on Bryson. Yeah, I mean we just we just aren't
gonna we aren't gonna get good Bryson prices for a
while like that. That just is uh, that's just kind
of the way it goes where it's It's just it's
just not gonna happen. Okay, I want to I want
to go here to uh some make or miss the
(49:26):
cut bets because I got a spicy take here Brooks
kept to miss the cut plus two fifteen. I'm betting this.
I like it. I love it. Brooks is Uh, he
just he's not feeling it right now. He just he
just does not have he just does not have his
game with him right now to the full extent that
that we want him to have it. I mean, oh wow,
(49:50):
Like the thing is all the other names, like there's
no way. You're picking Bryson to me as the Cut.
You're not picking J T. T Me as the cut,
Rory Tiger Victor. Um. Like those are names that you're
you're you're probably unlikely to click. So I can understand
why you'd say, Um, you know, Brooks to Miss the
Cut is probably the best one among all of them. Um,
(50:13):
I'm not. I'm not gonna go there. Like I think
Brooks has the motivation this week, Like I feel like
not enough people are talking about him and like that's
enough for him to go out there and and and play. Well,
I'm not going to click on on Brooks them as
the cut. I'm out on that one. He's out, He's
not He's not doing it, folks. He's not doing it, folks. Okay,
what about what about Shane Lowry to Miss the Cut
(50:36):
plus one sixteen? Yeah, like I would, I would like
bet that one instead of the Brooks one. I mean,
if you're not getting a ton of value, But I
think that's the name I'm most confident among all the
names here on the list, it has to be Shane Lowry.
Come on, yeah, um, okay, we have we have We'll
(50:58):
close here with some Tiger specials, even this is his tournament.
Tiger Woods to have one bogey free round in the
tournament plus five seventy It's gonna be tough, par seventy two,
very difficult course, but he gets four cracks at it.
Can we have a bogey free round for one? Mr?
Tiger Woods Lt. Gray. No, I'm gonna go with no
(51:23):
on this one. All right, we're skipping it. Tiger to
make one eagle plus one thirty four. I think you
gotta bet this one. There there are four part fives.
He's gonna have at least eight chances at them, probably sixteen.
I think you. I think you gotta go with that one.
That might be the best one out of all the
Tiger specials, Like relative to value is probably the best one. Now,
(51:47):
if you don't want to bet on the bogey free,
do you bet Tiger Woods to make a double bogey
or worse in the tournament? Plus three ten? Uh? Well,
plus three ten is no? Right? Plus plus three plus
three ten is oh? Yeah, okay? So so well, well
that's interesting. Plus plus I would I would assume that
(52:09):
these prices would be reverse. That's a that's an interesting one. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
because yes, like I'm not getting much value here, Like
I don't know, I feel like I would bow out
of this one entirely. I agree. All right, everyone, Well,
there we go. That was a thorough analysis of all
of the available betting markets for the Memorial Invitational at
(52:32):
Mirrorfield Village. This has been Davis Maddock and Christopher Pacheco.
Of course, if you guys are interested in getting action down,
we would encourage you to go to the Vandal Sports
Book and do that. Good luck on your bets and
we will see you back tomorrow. Sports grid dot Com
Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our
(52:53):
team covers the most important topics in sports wagering, real
time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more. Want
the edge to get on the grid. Sports grid dot
Com
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.