Davis Mattek is joined by Colin Drew as the guys do their DailyRoto weekly golf show and recap a Bryson win at The Rocket Mortgage Classic. Davis and Colin preview this week's event, "The Workday Charity Open, " and give you some of their best bets, including longshot plays to win. The guys also breakdown the DFS slate with projections courtesy of DailyRoto, to help you make the best lineups at this week's event!
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips as our team covers the most important topics in
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to the
(00:25):
Daily road to Hour here on sports Grid TV. This
is also going to double as the Daily Roado going
for the Green Fancy Golf Podcast. My name is Davis Mattock.
I'm joined by Colin Drew. You know, just coming in
from a great week of golf at the Detroit Golf Club,
the Rocket Mortgage Classic Bryson Day Shambo wins by three strokes.
(00:47):
There was really no sweat. Matthew Wolf pretty much immediately
began his round of the bogey Bryce and and in
fact it was a three stroke lead on Saturday night,
and by the third hole that Bryson played he was
tied for first. So really there was there was no sweat.
This This one was over pretty early on Sunday. Yeah,
(01:08):
and Wolf didn't really get it together until it was
a bit too late. So even on the back nine,
and there wasn't a ton of drama. If he could
have run really hot with a pattern, maybe you would
have got like a sweat going into the final hole
that he force a playoff. But for the most part,
like you said, I mean, the drama was the start.
I mean, Bryson had the gap closed immediately, and I
(01:29):
think that was something we expected potentially to happen, but
maybe not to happen as quickly as it did. Obviously,
Bryson dominating the storylines across the Gulf world this week
just with his performance off the tea, hitting multiple drives
three plus, just completely tearing the golf course. Apart off
the tea, it still feels like, even with the win,
he still hasn't like put it all together, because his
(01:50):
approach game and around the green hasn't been anything exceptional.
It's just like bomb and drain, drain potts. No, I
mean his around the green game has not not only
has it not been good, it has been bad. He
he has been bad with the wedges and I mean
even watching that round he puts the he puts down
the low round on the course on Sunday, throws the
(02:12):
five and ends up winning the tournament. And still you
know he was not gaining strokes around the green in
that round. It was you know, gaining strokes off the tea,
gaining strokes obviously with the putter. I mean some of
these some of these puts, it's uh, it's it's crazy.
You want it, you want to ascribe it to skill
in some way, but you know, it's it's just it's putting, right,
(02:32):
and Bryson, you know, was just running incredibly, incredibly hot
with the putter for all four days. Yeah, I mean,
I think you could make an argument that Bryson could
ascend to being one of the best putters in the world,
but that still doesn't mean you're gonna gain eight strokes
putting in a given week. So right, he definitely definitely
hid a lot of the weaker elements of this game
(02:52):
just by putting so well. And obviously the half of
the tea stuff is stuff that is it's here to stay.
I mean, and I mean, I guess at the I mean,
we knew. We said on the podcast, you know last Monday,
last Tuesday, we were saying, like, this is gonna be
a putting contest. This is just gonna boil down to
you know, who is making long putts, and I mean
(03:12):
Bryson made Bryson made some absurdly long puts and and
was just getting you know, he just was making good
putts and that's what happened. And I mean, it's it's
pretty funny because Webb was the best player, you know,
between the two of them. Td Green one of the
best players in the field, and you know, he wasn't
able to really connect with the putter. You still finished
inside of top ten. Great finish. That was different than
(03:32):
a couple of weeks ago where Simpson ran incredibly hot
with the putter and was able to win. So, um,
I don't feel bad for web. I feel like he
you know, he deserved to win one of those two events,
and he just happened to win the one where he
hit the ball a little bit worse. UH. Leaderboard in general,
you know, it was a weird week for DFS. A
lot of six or six lineups or missed on those percentages.
(03:55):
But you did have top end guys there. Drill Hadden
was one of the favorites coming to the event, Bryson, Webb,
they were all there on Sunday at least since had
the top ten. So you had some big misses. Um,
I would say as far as DFS lineups and value plays,
but in general, like the Cream did still rise to
the top. I mean DFS, what a what a nightmare
to literally lock the winner and not really be sweating anything.
(04:17):
On Sunday, I I played prison in money, right, Yeah, yeah,
I made money. But when you are you are locking
a winner, You're like, oh, you know, I'm going to
be making a lot of money. And uh, four of
my top five exposures other than a hundred percent Bryce
and I had Wyndham Clark withdraw in there. I had
Scottie Scheffler miscut in there. I had the the Sung
(04:37):
j Shuffle. I think he ended up finishing like T
thirty two or something. And then also had you know,
I had Gouch in there who withdrew. So it just
it just ended up being brutal. Yeah, yeah, it was.
It was a tough week for me. I was top
ten in the Stinger. It's like the hundred dollar buy
in fifty kated first. Going into Sunday, I had a
six of six with bryceon Wolf Hoveland we're kind of
(04:58):
the topping guys. Matthew wall This was on that team.
And then I had Brendan Todd and Tyler Duncan on
the team and guys are like shooting minus five minus six,
and like Todd and Duncan were like plus one like
until you know, they barely got it together for like
an even round by the end of the day between
the two of them. So I felt like, you know,
I was going to have a sweat coming in, but
the guys who opened just did absolutely nothing. So it
(05:19):
kind of killed my sweat right there. Um, but I
don't know, it felt at least good to be on
the final page of a leaderboard going into Sunday for
the first time in the past few weeks. Yeah, I mean,
it feels it feels nice to have a sweat. So
we are moving towards our first golf tournament since the
return of golf without Bryson and without Rory. This is
(05:40):
the Work the Workday Charity Open, And uh, the weirdest
thing about this event is they are going to be
playing the Workday Charity Open here and then they're also
going to be playing the Memorial Golf Tournament at this
golf course next week, which is this is I think
the greatest experiment PGA DFS history. Like, I am so
(06:02):
excited to see what ownerships are like week over week.
I I couldn't be more excited. Yeah, well, we'll definitely
get into some of the comparisons as far as what
they're doing with the course, how the event's going to
differ between the two um, but it is still a
decent field. Like you mentioned odds courtesy of Vandal Sports Book. Uh,
there is no Rory, there is no Brazen. But we
still have Justin Thomas, who's the favorite in this field
(06:23):
eleven to one, So a much deeper price for the
favorite than you were able to get on Brace in
last week, who went off at you know, six or
seven to one, depending on when you bet him. Patrick
Cantley has got a great course history here is twelve
to one, John Ram and Hideki Matsuyama at fourteen to one.
Brooks Kepka is back off of his COVID quarantine and
he's one of the favorites in the field as well
at fourteen to one. So still some top end names
(06:44):
here in general, and so I think it should still
be a pretty good event from a betting perspective and
from a DFS perspective. So are we expecting this golf
course to play as easy as the first month of
golf has because I think we're we are now to
a position where I actually think they have to try
(07:05):
to make the golf course is harder because well, I mean,
I don't I don't want them to. I actually love
Bertie Fest golf like I give me, give me uh
minus twenty two versus minus twenty one, you know, winning
scores or whatever every day over US Open style stuff.
But I've already seen some of the tout chatter this
week that this golf course is going to play more
difficult this week. So I think historically the Memorial is
(07:28):
the tournament that is hosted here every year, invitational tournament
with some of the best players in the world, and
everybody shows up out of respect for Jack, and it's
a tournament that Tiger has always had a heavy presence set,
and I would expect to see Tiger for the first
time next week, but could be wrong there. So the
course generally is one of the ten or fifteen harder
courses on tour. It's never a top five course, but
(07:49):
it does usually play somewhat difficult. Now they're changing some things,
like you said about the setup this year between the
two events, so that you don't feel like you're literally
playing the exact same event. So one of the things
that they're changing is the green speeds. The greens are
gonna run slower on the stint meter this week than
they will next week. The other thing is the rough length.
It's gonna be about half an inch shorter, and they're
(08:10):
just gonna let it grow out until next week, and
so it's gonna play easier than it has before, which
I think maybe it won't quite get to what we
saw the past couple of weeks, but I think it's
gonna get pretty close. So are we thinking that, you know,
week one, this is gonna be the minus twenty two week,
and then next week it's gonna be like minus nine wins? Oh?
(08:31):
I think it's like this will be like minus twenty
two and next week might be like minus sixteen or something.
It's not gonna be a minus nine winning type week,
not going to be like a major championship level test.
It's just not it's not long enough. You know, the
cours is generally um in part just a distance kind
of middle of the road, has narrow fairways. But it
(08:52):
sounds like the rough is gonna be a little bit
easier this week. So looking at the betting markets, I
I find this fascinating. Um, you know, the two golfers
in the world right now who get priced shallower than
ten to one are Rory and apparently Bryson listed at seven. Bryson, now,
by the way, is the favorite for all four majors
on on the Fandel Sports book. Like when you go
(09:13):
you go and look at the majors, he's the favorite
for Actually, I take that back, the the uspg A,
the the the US I guess the PGA Championship that
they have not they have not made Bryson the favorite,
but he's the favorite four the US Open, the Masters, which, um,
you know, you and I we we've been touting. We've
been touting to buy these futures for a while. I
I will say there are many things in my sports
(09:35):
betting life that I will be incorrect about, but I'm
not gonna let you know losing these Bryson futures be
one of them. I I have a future for him
at every single one of the majors that now you
just need the majors to actually happen, and you need
Bryson to be able to deliver. Um. It feels like
I don't know of of those venues. It feels like
Augusta is possibly the best set up for him just
(09:55):
because you can you can be a bomber. We've seen
bombers do extremely well there, and it's gonna be really
interesting just to see how he's able to kind of
approach that golf course in that setup for for sure.
So but anyways, the point I was trying to make
is Bryson and Rory are kind of like breaking golf
in a weird way where like, you know, DJ is
(10:18):
not as dominant as he has been in years past,
so I think when he returns, we're gonna start seeing
DJ at like twelve to one again. But you know,
Brooks hasn't won in a while, uh you know. So,
so at the top of the market, no one is
deeper than fourteen to one or no one is shallower
than fourteen to one, And there are nine guys between
fourteen and thirty three to one on the Vanduel Sports Book,
(10:41):
and you know, including losers like Ricky Fowler who are
never ever ever gonna win. So I just I just
think golf is in such an interesting place at the
top of the outright markets, where like if you love
Justin Thomas, if your data loves Justin Thomas, if your
data loves John Ram, if your data loves Patrick Kayley.
I think you can talk yourself into a lot of
these guys as plus E B Bats. Yeah, I mean,
(11:02):
I feel like they're they're all kind of priced appropriately.
I guess between those guys, if I had to choose
one of them to back at their price, I'd probably
choose JT. And that I mean, I think long term
it's kind of a coin flip between him and Ram
and then can't Lay maybe a peg behind them. But
I would just say the tie break for me this
week goes to stroke sing approach. JT is plenty long
(11:22):
off the tea, so he's great off the tea as well.
But I think that's where he does have a little
bit of an edge over ROM, at least at this point.
So out of those top four, kind of top four names,
I've had better favorite, it would be Justin Thomas. Um.
I think if I had to bet a favorite, it
would be can't Lay just because he's the best. That
that is the extent of my analysis. Like he I
(11:44):
I feel I feel more confident with him. I feel
like JT has had a higher volatility game since the
return from COVID. We've only seen Can't lay once is
Can't only gonna play next week too. Maybe can't lay
is better when it plays a little bit more difficult.
I don't know. So I see why Justin Thomas would
be the pick of you know, our our data heavy
(12:05):
friends such as yourself and probably a lot of our
subscribers as well. For me, I think it's got to
be can't Ley. Um, he just kind of plays a
less volatile style of games. I mean he is he is, uh,
one of the worst putters ever when when he's tilting
it off. But I think that I would take Can't
Lay at sixteen to one instead of Justin Thomas at
(12:26):
fourteen to one. Really interesting to see Victor Hoveland and
Colin Morikawa getting respect with these amazing players like you know,
Mariy Cowan Hovland are are getting priced up, you know,
higher than Ricky Fowler, higher than Matt Couch, higher than
you know, major champions. And I will say Victor Hovland
t de Green over the last fifty rounds has been
(12:47):
you know, one of the best five players on the
PGA Tour. So I can't even say really that I disagree,
and I certainly would rather bet Hovland at this event
than bet you know, Brooks Kept or Mark Leashman or
Bubba Wah Center whatever. The really golf markets are are
so interesting in that way. But we are going to
go ahead and had to break here real quick at
the Daily road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. When
(13:09):
we return, we will get into our DFS discussion by
price range sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
(13:37):
back to the Daily road to Hour Here on sports
Gride TV. We should probably talk a little bit about
course history, stuff, course fit. So this golf course definitely
is gonna I think the idea behind this golf course
calling is like there should be some of the old man,
you know, the crafty guys. This is kind of a
second shot golf course. I think the idea is that
(13:59):
those guys can do well here, you know, as opposed
to some of these pure bombers tracks, but aren't there
aren't all the Part five scoreable, and so that's really
gonna you know, play into j T and Zander and
those guys hands. Yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely
the case. They are scorable. There are holes that have
kind of forced layups, and so I think when you
talk about some of the accuracy guys who have done
(14:20):
well here, the importance of the second shot, I think
some of that is why you've seen that. Historically, um interestingly,
course history at Millfield Village had been among the most
predictive on tour out of all the courses and events
besides the Masters, so it is something that has shown
to add some predicative power. Patrick Cantley does have some
of that elite course history, top five finish and a
win in his three starts here. But I think if
(14:43):
you just think about the prototypical of course fit, you've
seen a lot of those types of players pop on
the leaderboards as well. Whether it's like a Matt Kucher
Hideki matsu Yama, you see kind of the profile player
that dfs players like the target, which is the elite
approach players any bad putters, and you've seen those guys
kind of come to fruition. Um, in the back of
my mind, you wonder, like the greens are not going
(15:04):
to be as firm on the ctent meters, so perhaps
they'll be softer a little bit easier on approach, the
rests can be down a little bit. Perhaps both those
things make around the greenplay a little bit easier, so
the scoring a little bit easier. So maybe it diminishes
the value of approach a little bit. But if I
had to lean anywhere, I would still obviously lean with
like what we've seen here over the past decade or so.
(15:24):
So your your team second shot golf course for for
mere Field Village, Yeah, for sure. And I mean these
top end guys like I mean, I prefer j T
slightly to Rom. It doesn't mean I'm off of Rom
entirely this week, but I think as you look at
the value selections, you know, I want to see the
good strokes game approach numbers more than I want to
see just like max driving distance. Alright, So uh these
(15:47):
are these are the unadjusted numbers from the p g
A to our website. Um, I I actually for some
of these, like strokes s gaining approach, strokes gaining around
the Green. I like to look at the unadjusted numbers
first on the PGA Tour website before looking at Data Golf,
just to see what the what the difference is between them.
Who do you who do you think is the number
(16:08):
one player in on the p g A Tour thirty
nine UH thirty measured round thirty nine total rounds uh
strokes gained approach the Green. I mean, I would I
would have said j T would have been the guy
that I would have pegged. Um, But that probably dates
back a little bit further than just to start of
this year, So maybe that type of ranking is not
popping it is. It is Mark Leishman, And I really
(16:33):
wish I didn't know that because Leishman is one of
the easiest guys for me to x out every week
in the projections, and I don't know if I can
now know that he literally has been best onto our
strokes gained approach and and not play him Now, Yeah,
that's I mean, that's definitely gonna be a tough one. Um.
It's it's always pretty easy to talk yourself off Marko
Leshman if he ends up being popular. But when you
(16:54):
see that so annoying, if you see that like single
digit level. Then I think that's when you can kind
of get off from the little bit. Uh. I don't know.
I mean Mark LEAs been a little bit of a
surprising answer there. I know we talked about Victor Hoblind.
He's been one of the best in the world over
this like post restart, and I always have that still
in the back of my mind. It's only four events,
but I feel like I still should be weighing that
(17:15):
four events heavier than I would normally, just because there
was such like a blank period in between there. So
I don't know all that in the back of my
mind for sure heading into this week, as far as
how to handle like course fit and trying to balance
ownership with you know, short term form and all that stuff.
I mean, the guys who are top ten in strokes
gand approach to R and a lot of these guys
(17:35):
are dudes that we will be jamming this week, you know,
Gary Woodland, Victor Hovland, J T. Hideki can't lay h.
Thank thank goodness that that that's more the less I expected. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
thank thank goodness that web is not here. I I um,
I actually I actually like don't really like webs so
these weeks where I like have to jam him in
(17:55):
are are never all that all that comfortable for me.
So starting into our drug DFS analysis by price range,
JT eleven point one on DraftKings, Rom ten point nine,
can't lay ten point six, kept a ten point for
Zander ten point to Hideki ten k flat. Uh To me,
j T can't lay in Xander are should be the
(18:17):
guys here. I just until until Rom Um, like I
don't know, gets a caddy that can calm him down
or whatever. I think. I think I just can't do
gihon Rom, he like is like a legit. Like normally
when we say these things about an athlete, it's just
to like, um justify our biases we have one way
or the other. But Rom's mental game like legit costs
him strokes. Like that's a real thing. Yeah, yeah, I
(18:39):
don't know. Rom would be one of the guys that,
like for absolutely no data behind it. I would play
this week more than I would when next week. Um
at the top of the card for me, like JT
was the obvious one best player per per miametrics on
approach in the field, I mean, he's the favorite in
the betting markets. It's it's not like some hot take
that JT should be one of the favorites that this event,
(19:00):
but he's praised up and I'm not sure, you know,
if people were hesitant to pay for Bryson he was
six to once seven to one last week, you know,
I think JT is probably gonna carry modest ownership going
off at like a twelve to one favorite or whatever.
So um, I like JT, but not to the same level.
I'm not considering locking JT, which was something we had
discussed with Bryson last week, and whether or not to
do that. For mm ME, I would add Hideki in
(19:22):
there because I think it is a classic course fit
for Hideki and he did show exceptional ball striking last
week after a rusty first event, And so um, I'm
you know, fine mixing DECKI in As far as those
expensive players, yeah, um, you know, I I really like
Hideki is again a guy that I don't like as
much like I just I just why would I Why
(19:44):
would I want to play Hideki when he is two
hundred dollars less than Xander, who I basically consider a
better player in every way, you know, Like I just
even in even in m m e. I would rather
just take a massive stance on on Xander with leverage
like I don't think I will new Kadecki from the projections.
My guess is is that I will probably give Zander
(20:05):
like a plus two though. Yeah, I mean I think
that's fair. I prefer Hideki slightly head to head over Xander,
but it's it's close. Um. In general, I think I
don't feel obligated on DraftKings to pay up for this
top end range. Feel obligated a bit on FanDuel, just
with the price of nature there. But there's some pretty
good secondary values in the nine k range this week,
(20:27):
including Victor Hoblind, who since the three start has been
the best player in the field. T Green you mentioned
long term, he's still inside the top five, and he's
trending in the right direction. And we have seen bad
Putter's win at this event that we're lead ball strikers,
So especially in a slightly easier version of slightly watered
down field, I could see this being like an event
that Holands to win. Yeah, I mean I could I
(20:48):
could see Avlins winning this for sure. Um. Okay, alright,
you ready already prepare the hot take. Cannon I if
if the FanDuel Sports book gives out head to heads
where Justin Rose is giving you know, ten cents or
whatever to Victor Hovland, I'm betting Hovland over Rose for sure,
and I bet they like we're recording this on Monday,
(21:09):
so we don't have head to head bets out yet,
but I would I would prefer the Hobland side to
the Rose side. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a
fairly responsible thick, so I'm I'm in on that. Um.
I like Rose this week as well. It is another
reason I don't feel obligated to spend on like the
top end of the pricing spectrum just because Rose have
you worse than Hideki. But he's played well and three
(21:33):
events since three started getting strokes off the tea and
three of them getting strokes on approach in two of
the three, and so you're starting to see more what
we expect from Justin Rose, and that's why he's priced
up here. But um, you know, the price discount can
go along with this week, so that kind of secondary
tier Hoveland, Morikawa Rose um is definitely drawing my eye
a little bit for rosters that don't spend up on
(21:55):
like a j t or Hideki. Yeah, I mean I
think I think that's mostly reasonable. Do we think we
will see a discount on Moricala this week since he
finally missed a cut I believe it was the twenty
third event of his professional career and his very first
ms carter. We are we going to see some some
discount as far as number of people who are rostering him. Yeah,
(22:17):
I feel like no, um, I feel like those days
of kind of the Slappy's love calling morical So. So
we talked about the type of course, its benefits, and
honestly like it feels like he will win at the
Memorial in his lifetime on his PGA tour, So I
would I would book that, um, as this is the
(22:37):
type of course he went on and he'll probably win
an event here at some point. Maybe he'll be this week.
It is the water down version of the field. He's
number two in the field of the strokes scened approach
over the last fifty rounds. He did show some laps
in that metric the last two events that he played,
but um, he's had some time off and I'm ready
to go back to the well on him. Uh. I
think part of it is just gonna be roster construction
(22:59):
in trying to understand where everyone else is funneling their
play is just because um, I don't know if I
know he's gonna be roster, but I don't know if
it's going to be or if there's a chance it
would hit. Like I think the presence of Hobland will
keep it closer. Like fifteen or twenty is the ceiling. Yeah,
I I think fifteen or twenty does does sound about right. Um,
(23:20):
I will be having a big fat zero roster ship
percentage on Ricky Fowler at at nine thousand. I actually
think for our boy though, for our boy Corey in
the daily Rono slack channel, I know it felt great
for him to see Ricky fire that T twelve sixty nine,
uh sixty seven for Ricky this last week. I know
he was really enjoying that. But I mean, Ricky, Ricky
(23:43):
to me is a worse player than song Jay. I mean,
what what what is the functional difference in now between
Ricky and Couture, Like I don't even really know if
there is one. Yeah, the and the Fowler price being
this high, just it doesn't make a lot of sense
with what we've seen. Um so that that's a little surpriying.
Like you, I would have expected it to be down
like I would have been considering a little bit of exposure.
(24:06):
There would have taken like to eight k for me
to feel really good about playing Ricky Um dude, Ricky
on on Sunday he hold out for eagle from a
bunker like he was. He was doing some crazy things
put together the round that he ended up having. Uh,
And I was feeling pretty good about Round four show
down until Bryson got on the course. But I don't know.
It's nice to see if that would make a cut.
It was nice to see him on the weekend. I
(24:27):
love the dude as far as golf's he's great. Love
to watch him, really good with fans. But for my money,
not gonna be back in Fouler this week. Yeah, I'm
I'm not interested. What about well, okay, breakdown, breakdown? What's
going on with song Jay? Do you do you think
he's broken? Do you think he's fine and just not
(24:47):
putting well? Like, what's what's up with song Jay? So
he's not he's not broking. I think what we've seen
from Sunjay is like middling level performance in most metrics,
So his off the team play has been okay. He's
been gaining strokes on the field each of the events
for the most part, and if he's been losing, it
hasn't been a ton but the approach play he's been losing,
(25:10):
you know, a bit here or there, and if you've
been following him and trying to sweat him like I
have done each of the last week as like a
core play, it just felt like he's never really getting
close consistently until I guess the final round on Sunday,
i felt like he was generating like consistent Bernie chances
and it's just been like a lot of mediocrity. And
(25:31):
so I'm not off of him this week. The price
is very reasonable, especially as part of balance roster builds,
but I don't think he's gonna be like a core
play that hits of my lineups like this. Uh So,
I don't know about but I do think I'll have
a pretty heavy helping of him. I also have already
(25:51):
bet him at one in the betting markets, because if
some Jay is going to be priced lower than Fowler,
you know, price price the same as Adam Hadwin and
what I'm mem and you know, like that's disrespectful, like
that's disrespectful to to song Jay. So I'm not I'm
not as much on board. I think he I think
he does present value in the betting markets. But we
(26:13):
are going to go ahead and had to break here
real quick at the Daily road Hour. When we return,
we will continue our examination of the DFS player pool
by price range, going all the way down to the
very bottom of the player pool with the best values
on Daily roado dot com, Sports grid dot com. Betting
(26:34):
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge
than get on the grid sports grid dot com. M M.
(27:00):
You're watching sportscred Hello everyone, and welcome back from break
here on the Daily road To hour on Sportscrade TV.
I'm Davis Mannock, joined by Colin Drew. Moving down in
price range a little bit more here there. I expect
there's gonna be some big values in the eight k range.
(27:21):
Uh Neiman Woodland, Fitzpatrick Data Golf is is gonna just
be uh inundating us with Matthew Fitzpatrick. We we don't
have our projections up right now. My assumption is that
when the projections are live, you know, probably literally probably
in about an hour. Uh, He's probably gonna be the
highest value matt you know, Matthew Fitzpatrick. At eight k,
(27:42):
he's literally less expensive than than Matt Wolf sou but which,
by the way, what a story from Matt Wolf hundred
and a super week field last week. Now they get say,
you know, a much a much stronger field this week,
and he's up to eight k. Yeah, wild price increase.
Um pretty obviously a bad value to me. I think
(28:03):
the field will see that as well. I think he'll
go off at like five percent ownership. Probably still not
a play for me at that level, just I just
can't really do it. I think towards the top, Patrick reed,
like I've I've been rostering him somewhat consistently. I think
the ownership is not gonna really be there on read um,
So it's not the perfect course fit for him, But
he is a guy that can get insanely hot with
(28:24):
the putter, and I'd be fine kind of going back
to the well with him UM as a contrarian GPP option,
I know it's Louis for you the pyramid scheme, but
I swear Mark Leishman, I can't get right to save
my life if you just the key is just you
gotta stop like when the when the pyramid scheme is
taking more from you than giving you, just gotta let
it go. You know, if Leshman or higher this week,
(28:49):
he's gonna be car right, he's gonna break me. Like
if that happens, it's just one of those he's he
always gets there if I have zero exposure, and he
never gets there even if I play a little bit.
So maybe that's the key for for Leishman. But like
you said, he has been really good at approach since
last two events is the restart, been really good on
an approach there as well. His short game has been
a disaster both around the green and putting um, so
(29:12):
those would be kind of the detriments. And then Matt
Coocher has excellent course history here could literally be a
lock could like literally be a lock button candidate for
real excellent course history. It's a course that rewards course history.
It's a course that seems like a coucher course. He's
been like super mediocre and the two events that is
(29:33):
coming back, but um, maybe the third times to trying
with coach uh could be. Yeah. I mean I I
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lock Coucher, but I
think he is. I think he and Woodland are super
strong plays. You know, obviously not going to be playing
our boy Mattie Wolf. You know Woodland like, I mean,
(29:55):
we talked about it a little bit last week or
two weeks ago, but I mean, he needs to take
the driver in hit it. Sometimes it's like I'm trying
to figure out example of it. It's like he he
learned how to hit the stands, so he just loved it.
So you just started hitting it all the time without
thinking about whether or not it's like the optimal strategy. Yeah.
It's like it's like guys in basketball who love to
(30:17):
shoot elbow jumpers even though they have capable three point shots.
It's like, yeah, do you can just go ahead and
shoot the three? Like that's fine, Like I can do
that place you don't. Like, Yeah, He's like Okay, So
Gary is gonna gain six strokes on approach this week,
but is that going to be enough to offset the
fact that he'll lose four t if he just hits
the stinger the entire time. Yeah. Uh so that you
(30:41):
know that is not particularly great? Uh, couture Fitzpatrick. Here's
here's just a bunch of dudes. I I'm gonna go
right in and nuke out when our projections go live.
Bubba Louis Michelson, Scheffler day Champ just like and and
by Scheffler might be controversial. Never again with this dude.
Never after the opening day seventy nine or whatever he shot?
(31:03):
What did you fire Friday sixty five? A bogey free
by the way, I just I won't. I won't. Well,
I mean, why why why would I do it? Why
would I do it to myself? I'm sure I'll go
back to the Scheffler well, but um, we had talked
about it a couple of times and talked about it
and slack with subscribers, and the win that he had
(31:24):
in that Dallas charity event is impacting the baselines. So
if if you feel like that shouldn't be regarded as
like a victory because of the unofficial nature of it
and kind of questionable form of some of the people
playing in it, then you could dock him a little bit.
But I still think it's gonna be a scenario, we're
gonna get some exposure. Um. For the most part, I
agree with your takes. I guess Bubba is the only guy,
(31:45):
and I'm not going to play a lot of Bubba,
but he's the only guy I wanted to push back
on a little bit because he's actually been one of
the best players off the tea in the world since
three start. He's just eight thousand dollars, he's been gaining
strokes on approach in half of the events as well.
His short games never really there, but this is a
course where compared to his personal baseline, Bubba has actually
(32:06):
outperformed it. So it's not a Bubba course and the
fact that he hasn't one here like three or four times,
but it is, of course that he's played better at
than average, and I feel like that does matter a
little bit more with Bubba than some other players. So
I wouldn't be surprised if I end up with a
hundred fifty lineups if I have like Bubba here and
they're not a core played by any means, but probably
the only guy I would push back on a little
(32:27):
bit from your analysis. Uh yeah, I mean, I just
what I whatever, Like Bubba's a tiltbox, Like his numbers
can look as good as they want, and he just
it's whatever. He's a tiltbox. So what's the point Snedecker
another dude I won't be playing. But then there are
a bunch of dudes who I think are um you
know pretty much core plays uh Co Crack, Billy horshel
(32:47):
Maverick McNeely, and then you know, to some extent, Corey
Connors HP three, Ryan Armor I think is a play.
Lanto Griffin I think is a play. Scott Stallings we
talked about last week as being a guy who might
be a little bit better than the projections had indicated.
I think that's a nice range of dudes to play there. Yeah,
I mean, do you have any takes on Joel Damon.
(33:08):
He's been kind of very consistent, very consistent approach, hasn't
really flashed with the putter, but hasn't been terrible. You're
just not You're not getting like top end finishes out
of him. But if you just look at his kind
of average Finnish, his form is among the best in
the field. I just can't decide if like he has
(33:28):
the top end finished in him or if what we're
seeing is sort of the top end of his range
and should look elsewhere, but he was probably the at
the top end, like um medium projection. I like him
a little bit more than like Champ and definitely more
than a day Um. Probably a bit less than Scheffler,
just because I feel like Scheffler could maybe contended. I'm
just trying to figure out if Damon can contend or not. So,
(33:51):
you know, I think the I think the problem you
have with Damon is he he gains strokes off the tea,
but he doesn't hit it super far off the tea,
and he's like a fine putter but not like you know,
some insane nails putter or anything like that. So I
just I just think you kind of run into point
of like he's like, uh, he's kind of strict or
ask where he's going to grind out a bunch of
T twenties. But I don't know if I don't know
(34:13):
how much you know, like win equity he has on
the average week. Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. Um,
the prices in a place where you'd like to see
someone in equity but at top twenty is probably fine.
You're probably taking that running with it. Um, And I
guess you know, like you said, there's other good ball
strikers in this range, so like Corey Connors definitely top
(34:34):
end ball striker, bottom and putter. That typically was the
type of player that did well here. But we do
know that if there's going to be more birdies or
easier scoring conditions, that the pudding will end up playing
a little bit more of a role. So it gives me,
I guess, a tiny bit of pause. But yeah, I
think that kind of in that upper seven point five
k to eight K range, the first guys that jumped
(34:56):
out to me Scheffler recovered, Damon recovered, Connors was kind
of that other guy. Long Live the Dallas Charity event.
We'll always We'll always have We'll always have Merito, which
is the yeah, yeah whatever. Uh and is stricker in
this field? Oh man, Well we'll talk. We'll talk about
(35:17):
Stricker here in a little bit once week, once we
get down to uh, once we get down to you know,
stone cold punts. I think you can play Grillo at
this event. I think you can play Vegas at this event. Um,
I think you can play Matt Wallace at this event.
Keegan had a couple really strong rounds this week, only
one round over seventy finished T forty five. I don't know.
(35:40):
It just kind of always feels like we're waiting, We're
waiting to see it from him. There are a bunch
of dudes down here, Bud Collie, Troy Merritt. Um, what
is c H three in play? Is Old Chucky three
sticks in play here? I mean I think he probably is.
Just if you're looking for like a maid cut like
top twenty type finishes, the type of course, so I
(36:00):
feel like should do well for him if he's playing well.
You know, he hasn't been in like the same form
that we've seen like over the past couple of years.
So Um, definitely not a primary play, but a guy
that I would at least consider rostering. Um, you talked
about HP three liking him quite a bit, and the
fact that there are multiple guys that I like is
another reason that the balance roster bild I think is
(36:20):
a little bit appealing here. Um, I guess the other
guy two people we breezed past, one of them Ian Poulter.
I don't have any real data to back it up,
but when I talk about courses that like Kutu does
well at Like. One of the first guys that jumps
to my mind is Ian Palter, and as I feel like, yeah,
they're they're both old men who kind of flocks around
(36:41):
and you know, are like there'll be one like chip
in for Bertie or something, you know, like driver courses.
Like I just end up seeing something about those guys.
And then the other guy I haven't rostered hardly at all,
but he seems to like get lights out with the putter,
and that's Maverick McNeely, So I'm not sure what to
do with him. I know there's no chance he's popping
(37:03):
in projections, but I feel like this he does, he
does pop in the project because I had I don't
think he would have been a guy I would have
manually boosted. And I had um a bunch of him
last week and of him. Yeah, he's definitely not the
bomber type. But he is like a younger prospect, so
he fits conflicting sections of the Davis Maddock model. Yeah conflict. Yeah,
(37:28):
well you know, but uh, he like he wasn't he
hasn't one yet, so it's hard for me to to
go all in on the young guys who who haven't
won yet. Troy Merritt is a dude I want to
make special note of he he is, uh, I mean
he's he like he is the guy who always stays
cheap but mixes in some of his you know, like
(37:49):
T forty eight nous with the random like bank Ground,
one of which was last week, and the the projections
are always kind of high on him. Yeah, I'm I'm
probably not gonna chase a Troy Merritt round just because,
like you said, it's not a guy that I typically
looked to for like consistency in form. I'm probably also
not going to chase like the Chris Kirk round. Those
(38:10):
are two guys Kirk I won't But like all these
losers down here, Kyle Stanley, Tom Hogie, Michael Thompson, Von Taylor,
Jim Furick, Dylan for Telly, like these dudes, well everyone
in that range except for Dylan and uh Hogi. Those
dudes are noted good guys because they came on the podcast.
But every single guy I just named for sure making
(38:33):
it in the player pool. Yeah, um, I mean Grillo,
I feel like you saw the top performance for him
last week, which is like flirt with first round leader
and then end up pretty irrelevant for DFS by Sunday,
but I'm sure he'll be in the player pool. Uh.
Ryan Palmer probably be one of the guys that if
he top ten wouldn't surprise me at And I'm sure
(38:57):
he's probably like eight twenty two per scent to teach
twenty as far as our odds, that's kind of what
I would expect him to come in at. And he'd
be a guy to be comfortable as like the last
or second the last golf from the roster. And then
I guess Max Holmas, the other guy that I had
talked up before his last miscut, and I'm definitely gonna
go back to the well with Maxhomas. So um, I
think there's some value down here. I don't see as
(39:18):
much punt value this week, so again that's part of
why I feel like the balance roster build at least
grabbing a few of these guys is my preferred approach.
All right, everyone, we're gonna go ahead and heading to
break to see you guys on the other side. Sports
grid dot Com Betting insides and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:40):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to
break here on the daily Road to hour on sports
Gride TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined by Colin Drew, finalizing
(40:01):
our discussion of some of these punts. I mean, first off,
because I am not locking the most expensive guy in
the player pool this week, I won't need to go
as hard on these dudes as I did last week,
where I ended up having to take massive positions on
really bad golfers because I locked Bryson. But you know,
I will be able to take like a reasonable amount
(40:23):
of Sebastian Mutos, a reasonable amount of Andrew Putnam, you know,
instead of having to take like nine percent of these
guys who are like legitimately bad plays. Yeah, And I
think that's an underrated thing with the low six or
six percent we saw last week, is it was driven
by the fact that Bryson and Hobland were so popular,
and so it forces people onto these builds. And I
(40:46):
don't know if for me, the return of DFS golf
hasn't been a profitable one so far, but we are
only like three or four samples in as far as
the tournaments are concerned, And the best line up most
weeks that you can make is like ten percent to
get six and six through the cut, and that's not
even factoring in the fact that you need someone in
contention to So even if you're making a hundred fifty
teams like you're only expecting to get ten or fifteen
(41:08):
to those and through a six or six lineups in
a week to week basis. Um So, I don't know,
just something to consider if you have also been having
frustrating DFS results to start. I think it's a pretty
tough thing, especially the way that last week worked out
with all the ownership funneling to Bryson. But um, I
would say, like Howell Stanley list at seven k flat
some of the guys I'm considering. I'm really struggling with
(41:31):
what to do with Jim Ferick because I feel like
he doesn't have the requisite upside for enemy, but at
the same time, he is a reasonable value on FanDuel
and um at that price, it's just tough to get
away from entirely. Uh well, I'm not play like I'm
not betting Theorik in the outright market Data Golf did
(41:52):
have him as a plus e V outright. I'm not
gonna do that. I am going to play him in
DFS though, because like, do you know, look at old
man there it go. Look at him grinding out those
T thirty four is like, whatever, man, he can do it.
He's playing good golf right now. Yeah, I mean he's
playing pretty fine golf. And I would say that the
putter hasn't even really clicked for him, like the last
(42:12):
two events. Um, the approach game that's been there, the
short games kind of usually there, and so I don't know,
I think I'll probably end up a little bit too.
But it does feel like a bad play. Uh, it doesn't.
It doesn't feel like. It doesn't feel like bad to me.
It feels like you're it feels like a little bit
(42:32):
better than the stricker last week where he makes the
cut and then finishes outside the top fifty, and you're like,
was that good enough? Like? Am I happy with last week?
The projections? Dude, they knew, they knew. Would you would
you rather play eight Jordan's speef or hundred dollar ferric?
(42:53):
I mean, honestly, that's tough. I probably rather play Speeed though,
just because I feel like crazy stuff happened where he
was able to contend. Uh yeah, I mean yeah, I
guess he can do like the way Speed plays like
he can just run. Uh, he can just run super hot.
I'm trying to. I'm trying to, Okay, like our our
dudes here who we can play? Who are stone cold?
(43:16):
Adam shank who had a really solid event last week
seventy one finished T thirty at the Rocket Mortgage. Uh,
Henrick Norlander Loki with the with the T twelve last week. Uh.
He he just seems like one of these Nordic putting gods,
like he just is gonna show up on tour for
eighteen months, gained two strokes putting every round and then
(43:38):
fade away. So so HOGI, I think is a good
play this week. I know you mentioned him briefly just
because he's on the take cask, but he's been very
consistent on approached since start. Was was just flat out
egregious with the putter last week, But you can kind
of look past that. It's like a one blip. Even
if you don't think that Hogi is like a great
long term putter uh, No, Orlander actually has some of
(43:59):
the highest upside on approach of anybody in the field
over the last three events, much less anybody at sixts
and below, and so he hasn't been doing it with
the putter. But at the Charles Schwab Challenge he averaged
one point eight strokes on approach per round there, and
then last week at the Rock and Mortgage Classic, the
average two point one strokes on approach there. So if
(44:22):
we think this is the second shot golf course and
you could definitely do worse than punting with no Orlander,
yes you could, and I am pretty determined to do worst,
like I'm determined to have you know, Carlos Ortiz in
the player pool. I don't think that I can do
it with Stricker. You know, I think that I I
(44:43):
think that I probably, um, I think that I probably
at at that point should just let it go. Like
there's there's not a whole lot worse than opening up
your top round four showdown lineup. That's like inside the
top hundred of the leader board of plus people and
realizing that you have like fifteen fantasy points from Steve
(45:04):
Stricker on it. No, No, there's not don't yeah, last
guy I'll throw in here shout out to coolers in slack,
But Charles Schwartzel has actually been stringing together approach rounds.
And um, a guy I wouldn't consider outside of the
lottery style tournaments, wouldn't make my player pool in a
(45:26):
twenty Maxwell, I don't think maybe I have one share,
but um, I think there's at least, like I don't know,
a glimmer of hope as far as schwartz All over
the last three events. Uh yeah, let's let's see if
I can find anyone worse than that to tell maybe
maybe keep maybe Keith Mitchell. Oh, oh, Denny mcputts. Denny
mcputts there, that's the that's the dude. He makes the cut,
(45:49):
He t forty eight or whatever and makes a bunch
of birdies because he makes tutts easy. Again. Yeah, it's
probably too much ball strike and required this week for
me to to try to run with like the pure
hot putters. I think so sad that he wasn't able to, uh,
you know, make it out to the Rocket Mortgage Classic,
because that would have been that would have really been
(46:09):
a format that that benefited him. So taking a look
at the betting markets. Um, the guy who I the
the guy who is closest to the top of the
of the favorites that I bet, is I bet Kuchin
Song Jay Both at forty one. I don't think I'm
going any shallower than that. I don't think I'll bet
(46:30):
Hovland or can't Let or JT or anything, even if
those are fair numbers. Yeah. Yeah. When I pulled up
Vandal earlier, I was seeing JT at like eleven. So
if he's up to fourteen now, then that's a much
more attractive price. And I think, Um, if you're looking
for a top end guy to sweat, I don't think
that's a negative value bet. You're probably getting like a
fair price. So fourteen to one justin Thomas would be
(46:52):
the top end bet for me this week. Uh yeah,
I I think that is. I think that is probably fair.
I do. I I just need to note the hilarity
of golf betting markets because there are so many factors
at play at once that just makes some of the
numbers like laugh out loud bad, like Bubba Watson seventy
five to one, like this dude is this guy is?
(47:14):
I mean, he's so much worse than that but then
at the at the same time, we have Matthew Wolfe
coming off of his I think he finished Solo second.
He ended up in Solo second last week, but you
know he was a hut one on the Vanduel Sports
Book last week. People get to see him on TV
on Sunday now Boom, Matthew Wolf's new price seventy five
(47:35):
to one every week. Get used to it. Yeah, it
is crazy because I feel like that, you know they're
never gonna offer good prices on like Speed or Fowler
or Bubba because you got named value with those guys.
People bet them just off of that, and then they're
never gonna offer good prices on the guys who just
won recently either, So you know you're not gonna get
picked off there either. So you end up betting like
(47:59):
you either end up endink guys all the way down.
Like I feel like we've bet Scheffler multiple weeks in
a row, and he you're getting a deeper price on him.
So like the last week, don't don't even don't even
try and talk Davis. You probably bet this guy at
fifty to one, and now you're not gonna bet him
at eighty five to one. Just two weeks later because
he opened it was because it was it was. It
was a bad bet to make. It was a bad
(48:20):
bet to make. These are the guys who are in
my fomo bucket, who I bet every single week. Um,
and they're like, well, first of all, I bet everyone
who's ever come on the podcast, So I bet Hog
every week, I bet, I bet, I bet for Kelly
every week, and I gotta get some winners on your podcast. Davis. Well,
the problem is now is Damon has kind of priced
(48:41):
himself out of being and every week bet he's because
he's deeper or he's shallower then um hundred to one.
But there there were a couple of deep guys who
I thought you could bet relatively profitably um at this event.
One of them. One of them was Dylan. I thought,
I thought that was fine. But Johnny Vegas two hundred one.
I want to bet Russell Knox two d one, but
(49:03):
I think that is probably a I think that's probably
losing position. And then Matt Jones two to one as well.
But I really I thought song Jane Koter for one,
I think those are really really good bets. Yeah, and
I think they're fair. Um. I don't. I don't love
them that like running out to get it before it moves,
But I definitely think it's fair. Corey Connor one, I
(49:25):
think that's the best price in the market by at
least like ten like ten to one odds. So I
think that's great. As far as Connors is a long shot,
HP three one again, best price in the market as
seem as low as SEENTI five to one other places
so Fandual sports Book HB three. Corey Connors, I think
you're getting the best price in them that you're gonna
see anywhere out there. And so those are pretty good
(49:45):
numbers for for guys. I like for DFS a little bit.
It's always nice. It doesn't always work out what it
is nice sometimes when the best wets aligned with the
fantasy sweats, I mean, it's all about it's all about
the clean sweats. Like I want to correlate my one
and done, my bets, my DFS round four showdown, like
I want that stuff to correlate. We had we had
this whole conversation and slack about like I thought probably
(50:08):
that the right thing to do in Round four Showdown
was to be underweight on Bryson and I couldn't bring
myself to do it because he was gonna be like
fifty six. So I just didn't play because I just
I didn't want to be in a situation where I
was rooting against him making shots. Yeah, and in back
to back weeks, I mean, it kind of happened the
same with DJ Brendan Todd, And then you had Bryson
(50:29):
and Wolf, and you had the scenario where had this
like alpha, you know, PGA Tour player chasing down either
a younger player like Grinder, definitely a secondary value, and
both times the alpha kind of came through, which I
feel like that's always usually where the public lies. Um.
So I don't know. I think it makes for good
TV if nothing else, it does, um thoughts for thoughts
(50:52):
for one and done. This week, man, it's it's definitely interesting.
So this week, obviously, of the most part, you're getting
guys at better prices, and you're gonna get next week
they're more live to win this event. Um. Next week
will be a slightly stronger field. It will be invitational
though so a smaller field I guess than this event
um and a tougher set up. So those are pretty
(51:15):
interesting things to think about the purse will be bigger
next week as well. So I think you're m you
want to if you're gonna like choose two guys that
you like at Murrayfield Village. I think you want to
play the better one next week in the smaller field
with the heavier purse, and then play the slightly worst
guy this week. Um. So I guess Hoveland would be
(51:35):
the first guy that jumped to mind as far as
a pick for this week. That's definitely trending in the
right direction, kind of inside the threshold of like, especially
with the number of golf events left, you're not really
looking outside of the top thirty players in the world.
So um, I think Hovland was the first guy that
jumped to mind for this specific week and then maybe
saving a top player like GT for next week. Yeah,
(51:56):
I uh, Hovland was the guy. I think that that
sounded That sounded good to me. I I really, I really,
because I want to get some exposure to Hoffland. It's
gonna be a little bit tricky in DFS. Obviously don't
think he's at a super great value in the betting market,
so I don't even know if I've used Hoffland already.
I think I probably have not, but I think he
seems kind of optimal this week. I could also see
(52:17):
taking JT this week and being like, look, the field
is gonna be way stronger next week, like let's get
let's get j T out of the way here, and
you know, we're obviously saving less guys for majors as well. Everyone,
thank you very much for listening and watching to the
Daily Roado Hour here on Sports Grade TV. This has
been Davis Maddock and Colin Drew, no Bryson and Rory
this week, but more great golf going to be on
(52:39):
our TV. We're very thankful and happy for the return
of live sports and we will see you back next week.
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
(53:00):
and more want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com MHM
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
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and more. Want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome to the
(00:25):
Daily road to Hour here on sports Grid TV. This
is also going to double as the Daily Roado going
for the Green Fancy Golf Podcast. My name is Davis Mattock.
I'm joined by Colin Drew. You know, just coming in
from a great week of golf at the Detroit Golf Club,
the Rocket Mortgage Classic Bryson Day Shambo wins by three strokes.
(00:47):
There was really no sweat. Matthew Wolf pretty much immediately
began his round of the bogey Bryce and and in
fact it was a three stroke lead on Saturday night,
and by the third hole that Bryson played he was
tied for first. So really there was there was no sweat.
This This one was over pretty early on Sunday. Yeah,
(01:08):
and Wolf didn't really get it together until it was
a bit too late. So even on the back nine,
and there wasn't a ton of drama. If he could
have run really hot with a pattern, maybe you would
have got like a sweat going into the final hole
that he force a playoff. But for the most part,
like you said, I mean, the drama was the start.
I mean, Bryson had the gap closed immediately, and I
(01:29):
think that was something we expected potentially to happen, but
maybe not to happen as quickly as it did. Obviously,
Bryson dominating the storylines across the Gulf world this week
just with his performance off the tea, hitting multiple drives
three plus, just completely tearing the golf course. Apart off
the tea, it still feels like, even with the win,
he still hasn't like put it all together, because his
(01:50):
approach game and around the green hasn't been anything exceptional.
It's just like bomb and drain, drain potts. No, I
mean his around the green game has not not only
has it not been good, it has been bad. He
he has been bad with the wedges and I mean
even watching that round he puts the he puts down
the low round on the course on Sunday, throws the
(02:12):
five and ends up winning the tournament. And still you
know he was not gaining strokes around the green in
that round. It was you know, gaining strokes off the tea,
gaining strokes obviously with the putter. I mean some of
these some of these puts, it's uh, it's it's crazy.
You want it, you want to ascribe it to skill
in some way, but you know, it's it's just it's putting, right,
(02:32):
and Bryson, you know, was just running incredibly, incredibly hot
with the putter for all four days. Yeah, I mean,
I think you could make an argument that Bryson could
ascend to being one of the best putters in the world,
but that still doesn't mean you're gonna gain eight strokes
putting in a given week. So right, he definitely definitely
hid a lot of the weaker elements of this game
(02:52):
just by putting so well. And obviously the half of
the tea stuff is stuff that is it's here to stay.
I mean, and I mean, I guess at the I mean,
we knew. We said on the podcast, you know last Monday,
last Tuesday, we were saying, like, this is gonna be
a putting contest. This is just gonna boil down to
you know, who is making long putts, and I mean
(03:12):
Bryson made Bryson made some absurdly long puts and and
was just getting you know, he just was making good
putts and that's what happened. And I mean, it's it's
pretty funny because Webb was the best player, you know,
between the two of them. Td Green one of the
best players in the field, and you know, he wasn't
able to really connect with the putter. You still finished
inside of top ten. Great finish. That was different than
(03:32):
a couple of weeks ago where Simpson ran incredibly hot
with the putter and was able to win. So, um,
I don't feel bad for web. I feel like he
you know, he deserved to win one of those two events,
and he just happened to win the one where he
hit the ball a little bit worse. UH. Leaderboard in general,
you know, it was a weird week for DFS. A
lot of six or six lineups or missed on those percentages.
(03:55):
But you did have top end guys there. Drill Hadden
was one of the favorites coming to the event, Bryson, Webb,
they were all there on Sunday at least since had
the top ten. So you had some big misses. Um,
I would say as far as DFS lineups and value plays,
but in general, like the Cream did still rise to
the top. I mean DFS, what a what a nightmare
to literally lock the winner and not really be sweating anything.
(04:17):
On Sunday, I I played prison in money, right, Yeah, yeah,
I made money. But when you are you are locking
a winner, You're like, oh, you know, I'm going to
be making a lot of money. And uh, four of
my top five exposures other than a hundred percent Bryce
and I had Wyndham Clark withdraw in there. I had
Scottie Scheffler miscut in there. I had the the Sung
(04:37):
j Shuffle. I think he ended up finishing like T
thirty two or something. And then also had you know,
I had Gouch in there who withdrew. So it just
it just ended up being brutal. Yeah, yeah, it was.
It was a tough week for me. I was top
ten in the Stinger. It's like the hundred dollar buy
in fifty kated first. Going into Sunday, I had a
six of six with bryceon Wolf Hoveland we're kind of
(04:58):
the topping guys. Matthew wall This was on that team.
And then I had Brendan Todd and Tyler Duncan on
the team and guys are like shooting minus five minus six,
and like Todd and Duncan were like plus one like
until you know, they barely got it together for like
an even round by the end of the day between
the two of them. So I felt like, you know,
I was going to have a sweat coming in, but
the guys who opened just did absolutely nothing. So it
(05:19):
kind of killed my sweat right there. Um, but I
don't know, it felt at least good to be on
the final page of a leaderboard going into Sunday for
the first time in the past few weeks. Yeah, I mean,
it feels it feels nice to have a sweat. So
we are moving towards our first golf tournament since the
return of golf without Bryson and without Rory. This is
(05:40):
the Work the Workday Charity Open, And uh, the weirdest
thing about this event is they are going to be
playing the Workday Charity Open here and then they're also
going to be playing the Memorial Golf Tournament at this
golf course next week, which is this is I think
the greatest experiment PGA DFS history. Like, I am so
(06:02):
excited to see what ownerships are like week over week.
I I couldn't be more excited. Yeah, well, we'll definitely
get into some of the comparisons as far as what
they're doing with the course, how the event's going to
differ between the two um, but it is still a
decent field. Like you mentioned odds courtesy of Vandal Sports Book. Uh,
there is no Rory, there is no Brazen. But we
still have Justin Thomas, who's the favorite in this field
(06:23):
eleven to one, So a much deeper price for the
favorite than you were able to get on Brace in
last week, who went off at you know, six or
seven to one, depending on when you bet him. Patrick
Cantley has got a great course history here is twelve
to one, John Ram and Hideki Matsuyama at fourteen to one.
Brooks Kepka is back off of his COVID quarantine and
he's one of the favorites in the field as well
at fourteen to one. So still some top end names
(06:44):
here in general, and so I think it should still
be a pretty good event from a betting perspective and
from a DFS perspective. So are we expecting this golf
course to play as easy as the first month of
golf has because I think we're we are now to
a position where I actually think they have to try
(07:05):
to make the golf course is harder because well, I mean,
I don't I don't want them to. I actually love
Bertie Fest golf like I give me, give me uh
minus twenty two versus minus twenty one, you know, winning
scores or whatever every day over US Open style stuff.
But I've already seen some of the tout chatter this
week that this golf course is going to play more
difficult this week. So I think historically the Memorial is
(07:28):
the tournament that is hosted here every year, invitational tournament
with some of the best players in the world, and
everybody shows up out of respect for Jack, and it's
a tournament that Tiger has always had a heavy presence set,
and I would expect to see Tiger for the first
time next week, but could be wrong there. So the
course generally is one of the ten or fifteen harder
courses on tour. It's never a top five course, but
(07:49):
it does usually play somewhat difficult. Now they're changing some things,
like you said about the setup this year between the
two events, so that you don't feel like you're literally
playing the exact same event. So one of the things
that they're changing is the green speeds. The greens are
gonna run slower on the stint meter this week than
they will next week. The other thing is the rough length.
It's gonna be about half an inch shorter, and they're
(08:10):
just gonna let it grow out until next week, and
so it's gonna play easier than it has before, which
I think maybe it won't quite get to what we
saw the past couple of weeks, but I think it's
gonna get pretty close. So are we thinking that, you know,
week one, this is gonna be the minus twenty two week,
and then next week it's gonna be like minus nine wins? Oh?
(08:31):
I think it's like this will be like minus twenty
two and next week might be like minus sixteen or something.
It's not gonna be a minus nine winning type week,
not going to be like a major championship level test.
It's just not it's not long enough. You know, the
cours is generally um in part just a distance kind
of middle of the road, has narrow fairways. But it
(08:52):
sounds like the rough is gonna be a little bit
easier this week. So looking at the betting markets, I
I find this fascinating. Um, you know, the two golfers
in the world right now who get priced shallower than
ten to one are Rory and apparently Bryson listed at seven. Bryson, now,
by the way, is the favorite for all four majors
on on the Fandel Sports book. Like when you go
(09:13):
you go and look at the majors, he's the favorite
for Actually, I take that back, the the uspg A,
the the the US I guess the PGA Championship that
they have not they have not made Bryson the favorite,
but he's the favorite four the US Open, the Masters, which, um,
you know, you and I we we've been touting. We've
been touting to buy these futures for a while. I
I will say there are many things in my sports
(09:35):
betting life that I will be incorrect about, but I'm
not gonna let you know losing these Bryson futures be
one of them. I I have a future for him
at every single one of the majors that now you
just need the majors to actually happen, and you need
Bryson to be able to deliver. Um. It feels like
I don't know of of those venues. It feels like
Augusta is possibly the best set up for him just
(09:55):
because you can you can be a bomber. We've seen
bombers do extremely well there, and it's gonna be really
interesting just to see how he's able to kind of
approach that golf course in that setup for for sure.
So but anyways, the point I was trying to make
is Bryson and Rory are kind of like breaking golf
in a weird way where like, you know, DJ is
(10:18):
not as dominant as he has been in years past,
so I think when he returns, we're gonna start seeing
DJ at like twelve to one again. But you know,
Brooks hasn't won in a while, uh you know. So,
so at the top of the market, no one is
deeper than fourteen to one or no one is shallower
than fourteen to one, And there are nine guys between
fourteen and thirty three to one on the Vanduel Sports Book,
(10:41):
and you know, including losers like Ricky Fowler who are
never ever ever gonna win. So I just I just
think golf is in such an interesting place at the
top of the outright markets, where like if you love
Justin Thomas, if your data loves Justin Thomas, if your
data loves John Ram, if your data loves Patrick Kayley.
I think you can talk yourself into a lot of
these guys as plus E B Bats. Yeah, I mean,
(11:02):
I feel like they're they're all kind of priced appropriately.
I guess between those guys, if I had to choose
one of them to back at their price, I'd probably
choose JT. And that I mean, I think long term
it's kind of a coin flip between him and Ram
and then can't Lay maybe a peg behind them. But
I would just say the tie break for me this
week goes to stroke sing approach. JT is plenty long
(11:22):
off the tea, so he's great off the tea as well.
But I think that's where he does have a little
bit of an edge over ROM, at least at this point.
So out of those top four, kind of top four names,
I've had better favorite, it would be Justin Thomas. Um.
I think if I had to bet a favorite, it
would be can't Lay just because he's the best. That
that is the extent of my analysis. Like he I
(11:44):
I feel I feel more confident with him. I feel
like JT has had a higher volatility game since the
return from COVID. We've only seen Can't lay once is
Can't only gonna play next week too. Maybe can't lay
is better when it plays a little bit more difficult.
I don't know. So I see why Justin Thomas would
be the pick of you know, our our data heavy
(12:05):
friends such as yourself and probably a lot of our
subscribers as well. For me, I think it's got to
be can't Ley. Um, he just kind of plays a
less volatile style of games. I mean he is he is, uh,
one of the worst putters ever when when he's tilting
it off. But I think that I would take Can't
Lay at sixteen to one instead of Justin Thomas at
(12:26):
fourteen to one. Really interesting to see Victor Hoveland and
Colin Morikawa getting respect with these amazing players like you know,
Mariy Cowan Hovland are are getting priced up, you know,
higher than Ricky Fowler, higher than Matt Couch, higher than
you know, major champions. And I will say Victor Hovland
t de Green over the last fifty rounds has been
(12:47):
you know, one of the best five players on the
PGA Tour. So I can't even say really that I disagree,
and I certainly would rather bet Hovland at this event
than bet you know, Brooks Kept or Mark Leashman or
Bubba Wah Center whatever. The really golf markets are are
so interesting in that way. But we are going to
go ahead and had to break here real quick at
the Daily road to Hour on Sports Grade TV. When
(13:09):
we return, we will get into our DFS discussion by
price range sports grid dot Com betting insights and entertainment
at your fingertips as our team covers the most important
topics in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models,
expert picks, and more want the edge than get on
the grid sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome
(13:37):
back to the Daily road to Hour Here on sports
Gride TV. We should probably talk a little bit about
course history, stuff, course fit. So this golf course definitely
is gonna I think the idea behind this golf course
calling is like there should be some of the old man,
you know, the crafty guys. This is kind of a
second shot golf course. I think the idea is that
(13:59):
those guys can do well here, you know, as opposed
to some of these pure bombers tracks, but aren't there
aren't all the Part five scoreable, and so that's really
gonna you know, play into j T and Zander and
those guys hands. Yeah, I mean, I think that's definitely
the case. They are scorable. There are holes that have
kind of forced layups, and so I think when you
talk about some of the accuracy guys who have done
(14:20):
well here, the importance of the second shot, I think
some of that is why you've seen that. Historically, um interestingly,
course history at Millfield Village had been among the most
predictive on tour out of all the courses and events
besides the Masters, so it is something that has shown
to add some predicative power. Patrick Cantley does have some
of that elite course history, top five finish and a
win in his three starts here. But I think if
(14:43):
you just think about the prototypical of course fit, you've
seen a lot of those types of players pop on
the leaderboards as well. Whether it's like a Matt Kucher
Hideki matsu Yama, you see kind of the profile player
that dfs players like the target, which is the elite
approach players any bad putters, and you've seen those guys
kind of come to fruition. Um, in the back of
my mind, you wonder, like the greens are not going
(15:04):
to be as firm on the ctent meters, so perhaps
they'll be softer a little bit easier on approach, the
rests can be down a little bit. Perhaps both those
things make around the greenplay a little bit easier, so
the scoring a little bit easier. So maybe it diminishes
the value of approach a little bit. But if I
had to lean anywhere, I would still obviously lean with
like what we've seen here over the past decade or so.
(15:24):
So your your team second shot golf course for for
mere Field Village, Yeah, for sure. And I mean these
top end guys like I mean, I prefer j T
slightly to Rom. It doesn't mean I'm off of Rom
entirely this week, but I think as you look at
the value selections, you know, I want to see the
good strokes game approach numbers more than I want to
see just like max driving distance. Alright, So uh these
(15:47):
are these are the unadjusted numbers from the p g
A to our website. Um, I I actually for some
of these, like strokes s gaining approach, strokes gaining around
the Green. I like to look at the unadjusted numbers
first on the PGA Tour website before looking at Data Golf,
just to see what the what the difference is between them.
Who do you who do you think is the number
(16:08):
one player in on the p g A Tour thirty
nine UH thirty measured round thirty nine total rounds uh
strokes gained approach the Green. I mean, I would I
would have said j T would have been the guy
that I would have pegged. Um, But that probably dates
back a little bit further than just to start of
this year, So maybe that type of ranking is not
popping it is. It is Mark Leishman, And I really
(16:33):
wish I didn't know that because Leishman is one of
the easiest guys for me to x out every week
in the projections, and I don't know if I can
now know that he literally has been best onto our
strokes gained approach and and not play him Now, Yeah,
that's I mean, that's definitely gonna be a tough one. Um.
It's it's always pretty easy to talk yourself off Marko
Leshman if he ends up being popular. But when you
(16:54):
see that so annoying, if you see that like single
digit level. Then I think that's when you can kind
of get off from the little bit. Uh. I don't know.
I mean Mark LEAs been a little bit of a
surprising answer there. I know we talked about Victor Hoblind.
He's been one of the best in the world over
this like post restart, and I always have that still
in the back of my mind. It's only four events,
but I feel like I still should be weighing that
(17:15):
four events heavier than I would normally, just because there
was such like a blank period in between there. So
I don't know all that in the back of my
mind for sure heading into this week, as far as
how to handle like course fit and trying to balance
ownership with you know, short term form and all that stuff.
I mean, the guys who are top ten in strokes
gand approach to R and a lot of these guys
(17:35):
are dudes that we will be jamming this week, you know,
Gary Woodland, Victor Hovland, J T. Hideki can't lay h.
Thank thank goodness that that that's more the less I expected. Yeah, yeah, yeah,
thank thank goodness that web is not here. I I um,
I actually I actually like don't really like webs so
these weeks where I like have to jam him in
(17:55):
are are never all that all that comfortable for me.
So starting into our drug DFS analysis by price range,
JT eleven point one on DraftKings, Rom ten point nine,
can't lay ten point six, kept a ten point for
Zander ten point to Hideki ten k flat. Uh To me,
j T can't lay in Xander are should be the
(18:17):
guys here. I just until until Rom Um, like I
don't know, gets a caddy that can calm him down
or whatever. I think. I think I just can't do
gihon Rom, he like is like a legit. Like normally
when we say these things about an athlete, it's just
to like, um justify our biases we have one way
or the other. But Rom's mental game like legit costs
him strokes. Like that's a real thing. Yeah, yeah, I
(18:39):
don't know. Rom would be one of the guys that,
like for absolutely no data behind it. I would play
this week more than I would when next week. Um
at the top of the card for me, like JT
was the obvious one best player per per miametrics on
approach in the field, I mean, he's the favorite in
the betting markets. It's it's not like some hot take
that JT should be one of the favorites that this event,
(19:00):
but he's praised up and I'm not sure, you know,
if people were hesitant to pay for Bryson he was
six to once seven to one last week, you know,
I think JT is probably gonna carry modest ownership going
off at like a twelve to one favorite or whatever.
So um, I like JT, but not to the same level.
I'm not considering locking JT, which was something we had
discussed with Bryson last week, and whether or not to
do that. For mm ME, I would add Hideki in
(19:22):
there because I think it is a classic course fit
for Hideki and he did show exceptional ball striking last
week after a rusty first event, And so um, I'm
you know, fine mixing DECKI in As far as those
expensive players, yeah, um, you know, I I really like
Hideki is again a guy that I don't like as
much like I just I just why would I Why
(19:44):
would I want to play Hideki when he is two
hundred dollars less than Xander, who I basically consider a
better player in every way, you know, Like I just
even in even in m m e. I would rather
just take a massive stance on on Xander with leverage
like I don't think I will new Kadecki from the projections.
My guess is is that I will probably give Zander
(20:05):
like a plus two though. Yeah, I mean I think
that's fair. I prefer Hideki slightly head to head over Xander,
but it's it's close. Um. In general, I think I
don't feel obligated on DraftKings to pay up for this
top end range. Feel obligated a bit on FanDuel, just
with the price of nature there. But there's some pretty
good secondary values in the nine k range this week,
(20:27):
including Victor Hoblind, who since the three start has been
the best player in the field. T Green you mentioned
long term, he's still inside the top five, and he's
trending in the right direction. And we have seen bad
Putter's win at this event that we're lead ball strikers,
So especially in a slightly easier version of slightly watered
down field, I could see this being like an event
that Holands to win. Yeah, I mean I could I
(20:48):
could see Avlins winning this for sure. Um. Okay, alright,
you ready already prepare the hot take. Cannon I if
if the FanDuel Sports book gives out head to heads
where Justin Rose is giving you know, ten cents or
whatever to Victor Hovland, I'm betting Hovland over Rose for sure,
and I bet they like we're recording this on Monday,
(21:09):
so we don't have head to head bets out yet,
but I would I would prefer the Hobland side to
the Rose side. Yeah, I mean, I think it's a
fairly responsible thick, so I'm I'm in on that. Um.
I like Rose this week as well. It is another
reason I don't feel obligated to spend on like the
top end of the pricing spectrum just because Rose have
you worse than Hideki. But he's played well and three
(21:33):
events since three started getting strokes off the tea and
three of them getting strokes on approach in two of
the three, and so you're starting to see more what
we expect from Justin Rose, and that's why he's priced
up here. But um, you know, the price discount can
go along with this week, so that kind of secondary
tier Hoveland, Morikawa Rose um is definitely drawing my eye
a little bit for rosters that don't spend up on
(21:55):
like a j t or Hideki. Yeah, I mean I
think I think that's mostly reasonable. Do we think we
will see a discount on Moricala this week since he
finally missed a cut I believe it was the twenty
third event of his professional career and his very first
ms carter. We are we going to see some some
discount as far as number of people who are rostering him. Yeah,
(22:17):
I feel like no, um, I feel like those days
of kind of the Slappy's love calling morical So. So
we talked about the type of course, its benefits, and
honestly like it feels like he will win at the
Memorial in his lifetime on his PGA tour, So I
would I would book that, um, as this is the
(22:37):
type of course he went on and he'll probably win
an event here at some point. Maybe he'll be this week.
It is the water down version of the field. He's
number two in the field of the strokes scened approach
over the last fifty rounds. He did show some laps
in that metric the last two events that he played,
but um, he's had some time off and I'm ready
to go back to the well on him. Uh. I
think part of it is just gonna be roster construction
(22:59):
in trying to understand where everyone else is funneling their
play is just because um, I don't know if I
know he's gonna be roster, but I don't know if
it's going to be or if there's a chance it
would hit. Like I think the presence of Hobland will
keep it closer. Like fifteen or twenty is the ceiling. Yeah,
I I think fifteen or twenty does does sound about right. Um,
(23:20):
I will be having a big fat zero roster ship
percentage on Ricky Fowler at at nine thousand. I actually
think for our boy though, for our boy Corey in
the daily Rono slack channel, I know it felt great
for him to see Ricky fire that T twelve sixty nine,
uh sixty seven for Ricky this last week. I know
he was really enjoying that. But I mean, Ricky, Ricky
(23:43):
to me is a worse player than song Jay. I mean,
what what what is the functional difference in now between
Ricky and Couture, Like I don't even really know if
there is one. Yeah, the and the Fowler price being
this high, just it doesn't make a lot of sense
with what we've seen. Um so that that's a little surpriying.
Like you, I would have expected it to be down
like I would have been considering a little bit of exposure.
(24:06):
There would have taken like to eight k for me
to feel really good about playing Ricky Um dude, Ricky
on on Sunday he hold out for eagle from a
bunker like he was. He was doing some crazy things
put together the round that he ended up having. Uh,
And I was feeling pretty good about Round four show
down until Bryson got on the course. But I don't know.
It's nice to see if that would make a cut.
It was nice to see him on the weekend. I
(24:27):
love the dude as far as golf's he's great. Love
to watch him, really good with fans. But for my money,
not gonna be back in Fouler this week. Yeah, I'm
I'm not interested. What about well, okay, breakdown, breakdown? What's
going on with song Jay? Do you do you think
he's broken? Do you think he's fine and just not
(24:47):
putting well? Like, what's what's up with song Jay? So
he's not he's not broking. I think what we've seen
from Sunjay is like middling level performance in most metrics,
So his off the team play has been okay. He's
been gaining strokes on the field each of the events
for the most part, and if he's been losing, it
hasn't been a ton but the approach play he's been losing,
(25:10):
you know, a bit here or there, and if you've
been following him and trying to sweat him like I
have done each of the last week as like a
core play, it just felt like he's never really getting
close consistently until I guess the final round on Sunday,
i felt like he was generating like consistent Bernie chances
and it's just been like a lot of mediocrity. And
(25:31):
so I'm not off of him this week. The price
is very reasonable, especially as part of balance roster builds,
but I don't think he's gonna be like a core
play that hits of my lineups like this. Uh So,
I don't know about but I do think I'll have
a pretty heavy helping of him. I also have already
(25:51):
bet him at one in the betting markets, because if
some Jay is going to be priced lower than Fowler,
you know, price price the same as Adam Hadwin and
what I'm mem and you know, like that's disrespectful, like
that's disrespectful to to song Jay. So I'm not I'm
not as much on board. I think he I think
he does present value in the betting markets. But we
(26:13):
are going to go ahead and had to break here
real quick at the Daily road Hour. When we return,
we will continue our examination of the DFS player pool
by price range, going all the way down to the
very bottom of the player pool with the best values
on Daily roado dot com, Sports grid dot com. Betting
(26:34):
insights and entertainment at your fingertips as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wagering, real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more want the edge
than get on the grid sports grid dot com. M M.
(27:00):
You're watching sportscred Hello everyone, and welcome back from break
here on the Daily road To hour on Sportscrade TV.
I'm Davis Mannock, joined by Colin Drew. Moving down in
price range a little bit more here there. I expect
there's gonna be some big values in the eight k range.
(27:21):
Uh Neiman Woodland, Fitzpatrick Data Golf is is gonna just
be uh inundating us with Matthew Fitzpatrick. We we don't
have our projections up right now. My assumption is that
when the projections are live, you know, probably literally probably
in about an hour. Uh, He's probably gonna be the
highest value matt you know, Matthew Fitzpatrick. At eight k,
(27:42):
he's literally less expensive than than Matt Wolf sou but which,
by the way, what a story from Matt Wolf hundred
and a super week field last week. Now they get say,
you know, a much a much stronger field this week,
and he's up to eight k. Yeah, wild price increase.
Um pretty obviously a bad value to me. I think
(28:03):
the field will see that as well. I think he'll
go off at like five percent ownership. Probably still not
a play for me at that level, just I just
can't really do it. I think towards the top, Patrick reed,
like I've I've been rostering him somewhat consistently. I think
the ownership is not gonna really be there on read um,
So it's not the perfect course fit for him, But
he is a guy that can get insanely hot with
(28:24):
the putter, and I'd be fine kind of going back
to the well with him UM as a contrarian GPP option,
I know it's Louis for you the pyramid scheme, but
I swear Mark Leishman, I can't get right to save
my life if you just the key is just you
gotta stop like when the when the pyramid scheme is
taking more from you than giving you, just gotta let
it go. You know, if Leshman or higher this week,
(28:49):
he's gonna be car right, he's gonna break me. Like
if that happens, it's just one of those he's he
always gets there if I have zero exposure, and he
never gets there even if I play a little bit.
So maybe that's the key for for Leishman. But like
you said, he has been really good at approach since
last two events is the restart, been really good on
an approach there as well. His short game has been
a disaster both around the green and putting um, so
(29:12):
those would be kind of the detriments. And then Matt
Coocher has excellent course history here could literally be a
lock could like literally be a lock button candidate for
real excellent course history. It's a course that rewards course history.
It's a course that seems like a coucher course. He's
been like super mediocre and the two events that is
(29:33):
coming back, but um, maybe the third times to trying
with coach uh could be. Yeah. I mean I I
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lock Coucher, but I
think he is. I think he and Woodland are super
strong plays. You know, obviously not going to be playing
our boy Mattie Wolf. You know Woodland like, I mean,
(29:55):
we talked about it a little bit last week or
two weeks ago, but I mean, he needs to take
the driver in hit it. Sometimes it's like I'm trying
to figure out example of it. It's like he he
learned how to hit the stands, so he just loved it.
So you just started hitting it all the time without
thinking about whether or not it's like the optimal strategy. Yeah.
It's like it's like guys in basketball who love to
(30:17):
shoot elbow jumpers even though they have capable three point shots.
It's like, yeah, do you can just go ahead and
shoot the three? Like that's fine, Like I can do
that place you don't. Like, Yeah, He's like Okay, So
Gary is gonna gain six strokes on approach this week,
but is that going to be enough to offset the
fact that he'll lose four t if he just hits
the stinger the entire time. Yeah. Uh so that you
(30:41):
know that is not particularly great? Uh, couture Fitzpatrick. Here's
here's just a bunch of dudes. I I'm gonna go
right in and nuke out when our projections go live.
Bubba Louis Michelson, Scheffler day Champ just like and and
by Scheffler might be controversial. Never again with this dude.
Never after the opening day seventy nine or whatever he shot?
(31:03):
What did you fire Friday sixty five? A bogey free
by the way, I just I won't. I won't. Well,
I mean, why why why would I do it? Why
would I do it to myself? I'm sure I'll go
back to the Scheffler well, but um, we had talked
about it a couple of times and talked about it
and slack with subscribers, and the win that he had
(31:24):
in that Dallas charity event is impacting the baselines. So
if if you feel like that shouldn't be regarded as
like a victory because of the unofficial nature of it
and kind of questionable form of some of the people
playing in it, then you could dock him a little bit.
But I still think it's gonna be a scenario, we're
gonna get some exposure. Um. For the most part, I
agree with your takes. I guess Bubba is the only guy,
(31:45):
and I'm not going to play a lot of Bubba,
but he's the only guy I wanted to push back
on a little bit because he's actually been one of
the best players off the tea in the world since
three start. He's just eight thousand dollars, he's been gaining
strokes on approach in half of the events as well.
His short games never really there, but this is a
course where compared to his personal baseline, Bubba has actually
(32:06):
outperformed it. So it's not a Bubba course and the
fact that he hasn't one here like three or four times,
but it is, of course that he's played better at
than average, and I feel like that does matter a
little bit more with Bubba than some other players. So
I wouldn't be surprised if I end up with a
hundred fifty lineups if I have like Bubba here and
they're not a core played by any means, but probably
the only guy I would push back on a little
(32:27):
bit from your analysis. Uh yeah, I mean, I just
what I whatever, Like Bubba's a tiltbox, Like his numbers
can look as good as they want, and he just
it's whatever. He's a tiltbox. So what's the point Snedecker
another dude I won't be playing. But then there are
a bunch of dudes who I think are um you
know pretty much core plays uh Co Crack, Billy horshel
(32:47):
Maverick McNeely, and then you know, to some extent, Corey
Connors HP three, Ryan Armor I think is a play.
Lanto Griffin I think is a play. Scott Stallings we
talked about last week as being a guy who might
be a little bit better than the projections had indicated.
I think that's a nice range of dudes to play there. Yeah,
I mean, do you have any takes on Joel Damon.
(33:08):
He's been kind of very consistent, very consistent approach, hasn't
really flashed with the putter, but hasn't been terrible. You're
just not You're not getting like top end finishes out
of him. But if you just look at his kind
of average Finnish, his form is among the best in
the field. I just can't decide if like he has
(33:28):
the top end finished in him or if what we're
seeing is sort of the top end of his range
and should look elsewhere, but he was probably the at
the top end, like um medium projection. I like him
a little bit more than like Champ and definitely more
than a day Um. Probably a bit less than Scheffler,
just because I feel like Scheffler could maybe contended. I'm
just trying to figure out if Damon can contend or not. So,
(33:51):
you know, I think the I think the problem you
have with Damon is he he gains strokes off the tea,
but he doesn't hit it super far off the tea,
and he's like a fine putter but not like you know,
some insane nails putter or anything like that. So I
just I just think you kind of run into point
of like he's like, uh, he's kind of strict or
ask where he's going to grind out a bunch of
T twenties. But I don't know if I don't know
(34:13):
how much you know, like win equity he has on
the average week. Yeah, yeah, I think that's fair. Um,
the prices in a place where you'd like to see
someone in equity but at top twenty is probably fine.
You're probably taking that running with it. Um, And I
guess you know, like you said, there's other good ball
strikers in this range, so like Corey Connors definitely top
(34:34):
end ball striker, bottom and putter. That typically was the
type of player that did well here. But we do
know that if there's going to be more birdies or
easier scoring conditions, that the pudding will end up playing
a little bit more of a role. So it gives me,
I guess, a tiny bit of pause. But yeah, I
think that kind of in that upper seven point five
k to eight K range, the first guys that jumped
(34:56):
out to me Scheffler recovered, Damon recovered, Connors was kind
of that other guy. Long Live the Dallas Charity event.
We'll always We'll always have We'll always have Merito, which
is the yeah, yeah whatever. Uh and is stricker in
this field? Oh man, Well we'll talk. We'll talk about
(35:17):
Stricker here in a little bit once week, once we
get down to uh, once we get down to you know,
stone cold punts. I think you can play Grillo at
this event. I think you can play Vegas at this event. Um,
I think you can play Matt Wallace at this event.
Keegan had a couple really strong rounds this week, only
one round over seventy finished T forty five. I don't know.
(35:40):
It just kind of always feels like we're waiting, We're
waiting to see it from him. There are a bunch
of dudes down here, Bud Collie, Troy Merritt. Um, what
is c H three in play? Is Old Chucky three
sticks in play here? I mean I think he probably is.
Just if you're looking for like a maid cut like
top twenty type finishes, the type of course, so I
(36:00):
feel like should do well for him if he's playing well.
You know, he hasn't been in like the same form
that we've seen like over the past couple of years.
So Um, definitely not a primary play, but a guy
that I would at least consider rostering. Um, you talked
about HP three liking him quite a bit, and the
fact that there are multiple guys that I like is
another reason that the balance roster bild I think is
(36:20):
a little bit appealing here. Um, I guess the other
guy two people we breezed past, one of them Ian Poulter.
I don't have any real data to back it up,
but when I talk about courses that like Kutu does
well at Like. One of the first guys that jumps
to my mind is Ian Palter, and as I feel like, yeah,
they're they're both old men who kind of flocks around
(36:41):
and you know, are like there'll be one like chip
in for Bertie or something, you know, like driver courses.
Like I just end up seeing something about those guys.
And then the other guy I haven't rostered hardly at all,
but he seems to like get lights out with the putter,
and that's Maverick McNeely, So I'm not sure what to
do with him. I know there's no chance he's popping
(37:03):
in projections, but I feel like this he does, he
does pop in the project because I had I don't
think he would have been a guy I would have
manually boosted. And I had um a bunch of him
last week and of him. Yeah, he's definitely not the
bomber type. But he is like a younger prospect, so
he fits conflicting sections of the Davis Maddock model. Yeah conflict. Yeah,
(37:28):
well you know, but uh, he like he wasn't he
hasn't one yet, so it's hard for me to to
go all in on the young guys who who haven't
won yet. Troy Merritt is a dude I want to
make special note of he he is, uh, I mean
he's he like he is the guy who always stays
cheap but mixes in some of his you know, like
(37:49):
T forty eight nous with the random like bank Ground,
one of which was last week, and the the projections
are always kind of high on him. Yeah, I'm I'm
probably not gonna chase a Troy Merritt round just because,
like you said, it's not a guy that I typically
looked to for like consistency in form. I'm probably also
not going to chase like the Chris Kirk round. Those
(38:10):
are two guys Kirk I won't But like all these
losers down here, Kyle Stanley, Tom Hogie, Michael Thompson, Von Taylor,
Jim Furick, Dylan for Telly, like these dudes, well everyone
in that range except for Dylan and uh Hogi. Those
dudes are noted good guys because they came on the podcast.
But every single guy I just named for sure making
(38:33):
it in the player pool. Yeah, um, I mean Grillo,
I feel like you saw the top performance for him
last week, which is like flirt with first round leader
and then end up pretty irrelevant for DFS by Sunday,
but I'm sure he'll be in the player pool. Uh.
Ryan Palmer probably be one of the guys that if
he top ten wouldn't surprise me at And I'm sure
(38:57):
he's probably like eight twenty two per scent to teach
twenty as far as our odds, that's kind of what
I would expect him to come in at. And he'd
be a guy to be comfortable as like the last
or second the last golf from the roster. And then
I guess Max Holmas, the other guy that I had
talked up before his last miscut, and I'm definitely gonna
go back to the well with Maxhomas. So um, I
think there's some value down here. I don't see as
(39:18):
much punt value this week, so again that's part of
why I feel like the balance roster build at least
grabbing a few of these guys is my preferred approach.
All right, everyone, we're gonna go ahead and heading to
break to see you guys on the other side. Sports
grid dot Com Betting insides and entertainment at your fingertips
seven as our team covers the most important topics in
(39:40):
sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
and more want the edge than get on the grid
sports grid dot Com. Hello everyone, and welcome back to
break here on the daily Road to hour on sports
Gride TV. I'm Davis Maddock, joined by Colin Drew, finalizing
(40:01):
our discussion of some of these punts. I mean, first off,
because I am not locking the most expensive guy in
the player pool this week, I won't need to go
as hard on these dudes as I did last week,
where I ended up having to take massive positions on
really bad golfers because I locked Bryson. But you know,
I will be able to take like a reasonable amount
(40:23):
of Sebastian Mutos, a reasonable amount of Andrew Putnam, you know,
instead of having to take like nine percent of these
guys who are like legitimately bad plays. Yeah, And I
think that's an underrated thing with the low six or
six percent we saw last week, is it was driven
by the fact that Bryson and Hobland were so popular,
and so it forces people onto these builds. And I
(40:46):
don't know if for me, the return of DFS golf
hasn't been a profitable one so far, but we are
only like three or four samples in as far as
the tournaments are concerned, And the best line up most
weeks that you can make is like ten percent to
get six and six through the cut, and that's not
even factoring in the fact that you need someone in
contention to So even if you're making a hundred fifty
teams like you're only expecting to get ten or fifteen
(41:08):
to those and through a six or six lineups in
a week to week basis. Um So, I don't know,
just something to consider if you have also been having
frustrating DFS results to start. I think it's a pretty
tough thing, especially the way that last week worked out
with all the ownership funneling to Bryson. But um, I
would say, like Howell Stanley list at seven k flat
some of the guys I'm considering. I'm really struggling with
(41:31):
what to do with Jim Ferick because I feel like
he doesn't have the requisite upside for enemy, but at
the same time, he is a reasonable value on FanDuel
and um at that price, it's just tough to get
away from entirely. Uh well, I'm not play like I'm
not betting Theorik in the outright market Data Golf did
(41:52):
have him as a plus e V outright. I'm not
gonna do that. I am going to play him in
DFS though, because like, do you know, look at old
man there it go. Look at him grinding out those
T thirty four is like, whatever, man, he can do it.
He's playing good golf right now. Yeah, I mean he's
playing pretty fine golf. And I would say that the
putter hasn't even really clicked for him, like the last
(42:12):
two events. Um, the approach game that's been there, the
short games kind of usually there, and so I don't know,
I think I'll probably end up a little bit too.
But it does feel like a bad play. Uh, it doesn't.
It doesn't feel like. It doesn't feel like bad to me.
It feels like you're it feels like a little bit
(42:32):
better than the stricker last week where he makes the
cut and then finishes outside the top fifty, and you're like,
was that good enough? Like? Am I happy with last week?
The projections? Dude, they knew, they knew. Would you would
you rather play eight Jordan's speef or hundred dollar ferric?
(42:53):
I mean, honestly, that's tough. I probably rather play Speeed though,
just because I feel like crazy stuff happened where he
was able to contend. Uh yeah, I mean yeah, I
guess he can do like the way Speed plays like
he can just run. Uh, he can just run super hot.
I'm trying to. I'm trying to, Okay, like our our
dudes here who we can play? Who are stone cold?
(43:16):
Adam shank who had a really solid event last week
seventy one finished T thirty at the Rocket Mortgage. Uh,
Henrick Norlander Loki with the with the T twelve last week. Uh.
He he just seems like one of these Nordic putting gods,
like he just is gonna show up on tour for
eighteen months, gained two strokes putting every round and then
(43:38):
fade away. So so HOGI, I think is a good
play this week. I know you mentioned him briefly just
because he's on the take cask, but he's been very
consistent on approached since start. Was was just flat out
egregious with the putter last week, But you can kind
of look past that. It's like a one blip. Even
if you don't think that Hogi is like a great
long term putter uh, No, Orlander actually has some of
(43:59):
the highest upside on approach of anybody in the field
over the last three events, much less anybody at sixts
and below, and so he hasn't been doing it with
the putter. But at the Charles Schwab Challenge he averaged
one point eight strokes on approach per round there, and
then last week at the Rock and Mortgage Classic, the
average two point one strokes on approach there. So if
(44:22):
we think this is the second shot golf course and
you could definitely do worse than punting with no Orlander,
yes you could, and I am pretty determined to do worst,
like I'm determined to have you know, Carlos Ortiz in
the player pool. I don't think that I can do
it with Stricker. You know, I think that I I
(44:43):
think that I probably, um, I think that I probably
at at that point should just let it go. Like
there's there's not a whole lot worse than opening up
your top round four showdown lineup. That's like inside the
top hundred of the leader board of plus people and
realizing that you have like fifteen fantasy points from Steve
(45:04):
Stricker on it. No, No, there's not don't yeah, last
guy I'll throw in here shout out to coolers in slack,
But Charles Schwartzel has actually been stringing together approach rounds.
And um, a guy I wouldn't consider outside of the
lottery style tournaments, wouldn't make my player pool in a
(45:26):
twenty Maxwell, I don't think maybe I have one share,
but um, I think there's at least, like I don't know,
a glimmer of hope as far as schwartz All over
the last three events. Uh yeah, let's let's see if
I can find anyone worse than that to tell maybe
maybe keep maybe Keith Mitchell. Oh, oh, Denny mcputts. Denny
mcputts there, that's the that's the dude. He makes the cut,
(45:49):
He t forty eight or whatever and makes a bunch
of birdies because he makes tutts easy. Again. Yeah, it's
probably too much ball strike and required this week for
me to to try to run with like the pure
hot putters. I think so sad that he wasn't able to, uh,
you know, make it out to the Rocket Mortgage Classic,
because that would have been that would have really been
(46:09):
a format that that benefited him. So taking a look
at the betting markets. Um, the guy who I the
the guy who is closest to the top of the
of the favorites that I bet, is I bet Kuchin
Song Jay Both at forty one. I don't think I'm
going any shallower than that. I don't think I'll bet
(46:30):
Hovland or can't Let or JT or anything, even if
those are fair numbers. Yeah. Yeah. When I pulled up
Vandal earlier, I was seeing JT at like eleven. So
if he's up to fourteen now, then that's a much
more attractive price. And I think, Um, if you're looking
for a top end guy to sweat, I don't think
that's a negative value bet. You're probably getting like a
fair price. So fourteen to one justin Thomas would be
(46:52):
the top end bet for me this week. Uh yeah,
I I think that is. I think that is probably fair.
I do. I I just need to note the hilarity
of golf betting markets because there are so many factors
at play at once that just makes some of the
numbers like laugh out loud bad, like Bubba Watson seventy
five to one, like this dude is this guy is?
(47:14):
I mean, he's so much worse than that but then
at the at the same time, we have Matthew Wolfe
coming off of his I think he finished Solo second.
He ended up in Solo second last week, but you
know he was a hut one on the Vanduel Sports
Book last week. People get to see him on TV
on Sunday now Boom, Matthew Wolf's new price seventy five
(47:35):
to one every week. Get used to it. Yeah, it
is crazy because I feel like that, you know they're
never gonna offer good prices on like Speed or Fowler
or Bubba because you got named value with those guys.
People bet them just off of that, and then they're
never gonna offer good prices on the guys who just
won recently either, So you know you're not gonna get
picked off there either. So you end up betting like
(47:59):
you either end up endink guys all the way down.
Like I feel like we've bet Scheffler multiple weeks in
a row, and he you're getting a deeper price on him.
So like the last week, don't don't even don't even
try and talk Davis. You probably bet this guy at
fifty to one, and now you're not gonna bet him
at eighty five to one. Just two weeks later because
he opened it was because it was it was. It
was a bad bet to make. It was a bad
(48:20):
bet to make. These are the guys who are in
my fomo bucket, who I bet every single week. Um,
and they're like, well, first of all, I bet everyone
who's ever come on the podcast, So I bet Hog
every week, I bet, I bet, I bet for Kelly
every week, and I gotta get some winners on your podcast. Davis. Well,
the problem is now is Damon has kind of priced
(48:41):
himself out of being and every week bet he's because
he's deeper or he's shallower then um hundred to one.
But there there were a couple of deep guys who
I thought you could bet relatively profitably um at this event.
One of them. One of them was Dylan. I thought,
I thought that was fine. But Johnny Vegas two hundred one.
I want to bet Russell Knox two d one, but
(49:03):
I think that is probably a I think that's probably
losing position. And then Matt Jones two to one as well.
But I really I thought song Jane Koter for one,
I think those are really really good bets. Yeah, and
I think they're fair. Um. I don't. I don't love
them that like running out to get it before it moves,
But I definitely think it's fair. Corey Connor one, I
(49:25):
think that's the best price in the market by at
least like ten like ten to one odds. So I
think that's great. As far as Connors is a long shot,
HP three one again, best price in the market as
seem as low as SEENTI five to one other places
so Fandual sports Book HB three. Corey Connors, I think
you're getting the best price in them that you're gonna
see anywhere out there. And so those are pretty good
(49:45):
numbers for for guys. I like for DFS a little bit.
It's always nice. It doesn't always work out what it
is nice sometimes when the best wets aligned with the
fantasy sweats, I mean, it's all about it's all about
the clean sweats. Like I want to correlate my one
and done, my bets, my DFS round four showdown, like
I want that stuff to correlate. We had we had
this whole conversation and slack about like I thought probably
(50:08):
that the right thing to do in Round four Showdown
was to be underweight on Bryson and I couldn't bring
myself to do it because he was gonna be like
fifty six. So I just didn't play because I just
I didn't want to be in a situation where I
was rooting against him making shots. Yeah, and in back
to back weeks, I mean, it kind of happened the
same with DJ Brendan Todd, And then you had Bryson
(50:29):
and Wolf, and you had the scenario where had this
like alpha, you know, PGA Tour player chasing down either
a younger player like Grinder, definitely a secondary value, and
both times the alpha kind of came through, which I
feel like that's always usually where the public lies. Um.
So I don't know. I think it makes for good
TV if nothing else, it does, um thoughts for thoughts
(50:52):
for one and done. This week, man, it's it's definitely interesting.
So this week, obviously, of the most part, you're getting
guys at better prices, and you're gonna get next week
they're more live to win this event. Um. Next week
will be a slightly stronger field. It will be invitational
though so a smaller field I guess than this event
um and a tougher set up. So those are pretty
(51:15):
interesting things to think about the purse will be bigger
next week as well. So I think you're m you
want to if you're gonna like choose two guys that
you like at Murrayfield Village. I think you want to
play the better one next week in the smaller field
with the heavier purse, and then play the slightly worst
guy this week. Um. So I guess Hoveland would be
(51:35):
the first guy that jumped to mind as far as
a pick for this week. That's definitely trending in the
right direction, kind of inside the threshold of like, especially
with the number of golf events left, you're not really
looking outside of the top thirty players in the world.
So um, I think Hovland was the first guy that
jumped to mind for this specific week and then maybe
saving a top player like GT for next week. Yeah,
(51:56):
I uh, Hovland was the guy. I think that that
sounded That sounded good to me. I I really, I really,
because I want to get some exposure to Hoffland. It's
gonna be a little bit tricky in DFS. Obviously don't
think he's at a super great value in the betting market,
so I don't even know if I've used Hoffland already.
I think I probably have not, but I think he
seems kind of optimal this week. I could also see
(52:17):
taking JT this week and being like, look, the field
is gonna be way stronger next week, like let's get
let's get j T out of the way here, and
you know, we're obviously saving less guys for majors as well. Everyone,
thank you very much for listening and watching to the
Daily Roado Hour here on Sports Grade TV. This has
been Davis Maddock and Colin Drew, no Bryson and Rory
this week, but more great golf going to be on
(52:39):
our TV. We're very thankful and happy for the return
of live sports and we will see you back next week.
Sports grid dot Com Betting insights and entertainment at your
fingertips seven as our team covers the most important topics
in sports wagering, real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks,
(53:00):
and more want the edge than get on the grid.
Sports grid dot Com MHM
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