January 9, 2020 • 50 mins
Martino Puccio takes you around the world of football. Get the latest news, notes, and wagering odds for upcoming matches, including Wolverhampton vs. Newcastle.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hello everybody, and welcome to the Free Kick. I'm your host,
Martino Puccio. Alongside me is Geo Cosalino. Did you have
a good New Year? Man? Yeah, I had a great time.
Lots of food. Let's make some money now it makes someone.
I guess you're not that happy because Annapolis form as
of late. Yeah, they had a lot of terrible form
for both of our teams over the Christmas break. But
(00:25):
we're gonna get into some of the new matchups PSG
Monico this weekend. I believe this is the rematch of
the game that got canceled that we were discussing a
few weeks ago. Obviously, p s G is just on fire.
This is still their lead to lose. Um, they're more
focused on the Champions League now they got neymar back healthy.
Cavani is going to be leaving, so that situation being
sold over there I think would help a lot, especially
(00:46):
heading into a matchup like this. UM, what are you
feeling with this? I do feel like Monico has any
kind of chance of not even the cover or anything.
Obviously the odds don't favor them PSGs minus four ten
at home on the money line, I mean, this should
be an easy win right three points. I don't see
Monica having any shot here. Maybe to cover uh the
(01:07):
spread at at two, but I don't think they have
any chance at winning. I would stay away from them,
uh in the moneyline situation. They last lost on November
twenty four, there is pretty good they have a couple
of wins in a draw. But since then they had
a huge five one win against lil as well, which
is pretty big considering what they were looking like a
couple of months back when we talked about this matchup
initially and then it got postponed. But I really don't
(01:29):
have any faith in Monica. I think PSG is getting healthier.
They saw some guys out, but Kamani, who you know,
we don't know if he's leaving, probably in June, I
would assume the most likely scenario. But he came back
in the French Cup recently and scored a couple of
goals also, so if he's back in the mix with
the neymar and uh and and you have becod he
was playing very well. Yeah in bob A as well.
(01:51):
I didn't even mention him because he's he's just a
staple by now. I mean they're they're starting to runaway
with the league. It was always their league to win,
but I just think that, you know, it's started a
little of it slow. They had a couple of losses.
Usually they have one or just going defeated because the
French League is just so so basic for them at
this point. It's just it's like a UVS situation until now.
(02:11):
But yeah, PSG all the way. The only thing is
it's a minus four ten money line, so you probably
won't make much there, so you wanted to put it
within a parlay or something. But I think the spread
is something we should probably pay more attention to because
it's all plus numbers there plus two for Monaco's plus
one oh five, ps G plus one seventy. Which one
are you leaning towards, because obviously you're making out pretty
(02:33):
well if you go either direction. I just don't know,
because you're saying, like twenty six goals allowed in the
league by Monaco and the numbers plus two, I don't
know if they can actually cover that. Yeah, I don't.
I don't think, so I would lean towards PSG and
minus two you get a plus one seventy, which is
pretty good. And don't forget PSG is home for this
match as well, so it's not like they're at Monaco
(02:55):
and they're gonna have to win on the road. Um.
I think that PSG hasn't lost. It is November one,
that's when their last loss happened, so a couple of
months now and just one draw since then. They're picking
up all the points every week pretty much at this rate,
and I mean they they're going to score at least
two for me. You can look at team totals as well.
That might be something that you guys want to look at.
I now would probably hit the over with PSG. I'm
(03:15):
probably gonna be said at three. I think it's because
just because I don't think they want to keep that
two and a half, because everyone's gonna want to hit
over for that, And I mean, why wouldn't you at
that point, because two and a half goals for them
just seems like a given to me. I think three
and a half would be a crazy team one. I
think I would feel more comfortable, but I think they're
at least going to get three as a team. I
(03:37):
don't see they're really clicking on all cylinders now. Because
it took a card deal a little bit of time to,
you know, get to that point where he's feeling the
chemistry within all of his teammates. Who's playing on the
left and right wing guys aren't as healthy as you
would like them to be. But the second he gets healthy,
and like Neymar has been, there's no stopping this attack.
(03:58):
In my opinion, the depth that they have in the
quality of attack, there's no one better in the world,
and that's including Liverpool because simply Neymar and embob A
are quite possibly, on their best day, the best duo
in the world. Yeah, I could see that too. I
I completely agree. I mean, Salt and and Money will
give him a challenge for that for that title, I
guess the best dual, but it's it's high up there.
(04:19):
But I'm just going with PSG here before he movement
to our next matchup. I don't really see a worry
for PSG at home. I think I take the minus
two that's such good value for plus one seventy, especially
at home, and Monico's do for a loss. Right. We know,
it's nice that you haven't been lost since November, but
that probably wouldn't be the case if they did originally
play PSG. Anyways, when the game was scheduled then, so
(04:41):
I think I'm gonna go PSG covering the spread there
and obviously if we think that, might as well put
down the minus four ten for the money line. But
Ashton Villa and man Cities are other matchup in the
Premier League. Man City has been playing a lot better
as of late, but for me, that the whole vibe
around the club in general. When you have your manager
pet Guardiola basically can seating in a post game conference
(05:02):
press conference saying that there's no chance in trying to
catch Liverpool, just have to worry about second place, and
for me, I don't like that kind of attitude, and
I understand where he's coming from simply because thirteen fourteen
points is a large gap and that's simply insurmountable. At
this point, Leicester City has faltered a little bit and
we talked about how their in position catch them and
(05:23):
I think City will end up finishing second, but just
to sound a defeat in their voice, their favorite to
win the Champions League still for some reason, but they
have an awful matchup against Real Madrid. But in this one,
I feel like it's a given plus thirteen hundred for
aston Villa at a home Cities minus six hundred. I
mean you could look at the spread as well, City
(05:43):
covering minus two plus one forty. But for me, I
think something I like that like a lot in this
with both teams to score, yes is minus one four.
We know the injury issues that Man City have on defense.
I think this is actually the most likely outcome out
of all the possible bets. It's funny that you mentioned
that because I was gonna say, I'm probably staying away
from all the money line and spread bets because Man
(06:05):
City has on one you know once a while that game, yeah,
and and and minus six hundred, you're gonna risk a
lot and you never know what happened. Especially with the
way they've been playing lately. I mean they've been on
a better role lately. They have won seven, I think
of their last eight in all comps. But they had
that big loss to Wolves on you know, Boxing Day
week we can call it. So that was that was
a very bad loss there. But you know there was
(06:26):
that whole goalkeeper situation miss Penn, and so things happened
away at them there. It's goalkeeper defenders. I mean, things
happen in football, so I mean, you can't really uh,
you know, take that. You have to take that for
what it is. I would I would definitely go with
the Bowl teams to score though, I think that's something
you'd rather rather see here. Jack Grealish for aston Ville
(06:46):
has been amazing. Six goals, five assists every time I'm
watching them, which I'll admit is not often, but when
I'm watching them, he's usually the guys making the impact
in the midfield, attack in midfield, um, and you would
think they can get at least one, maybe even in
in garbage time when Man Cities already up. I think
you can really go with the man City win here.
I'm not I'm not afraid on the road, um, but
I'm just not. I'm just not confident taking the spread
(07:07):
because recently, you know, they haven't had those dominating four
zero wins that they've known. It's very strange because of
the way they play against certain teams, like they played
well against Leicester City. It's really just been the Kevin
de Bruner show and then Gabrielle Jay Zeus you could argue,
has been their second best player and then they're sterling.
But that whole back line is just too shaky. I
know they're expecting Laporte to come back eventually and that
(07:29):
will help eventually with the Champions League ties, but as
of right now, I know, I I don't feel confident,
especially when the numbers minus six hundred and I know,
and they're on the road too, and we know how
a lot of these teams like to play up to
this competition, especially the top teams in the Premier League
like that. When you go with the spread though, minus
two plus one forty for City, that's something I like
(07:51):
because I could see a three to a three to
one win, or if you don't even like to score,
both teams have scored no wis plus one twelve, So
if you could get a three nothing went from City,
I don't think that's out of the question. Yeah, it's
out of the question. I'm just saying in terms of money,
where I where I would be safest. But I I
think you can definitely hit that and spread also you
can still get a plus number there. I think I
(08:13):
would really you know, if you're really confident the moneyline,
go for it. But I'm just mindset and I think
that's something you would want to put in a parlay, right, Yeah,
you definitely want to parlay it, maybe with the both
teams to score or spread, but you know spreads are
tough to hit. But man City should win this one,
I think without a problem. Oh yeah, I don't think
it should be questioned at this point. I actually did
put I had I had him in a two sport
(08:33):
parlay um the other day over the weekend with Liverpool
winning that matchup. So you could do something with Manchester
City if you like a team in the NFL this
weekend as well, you guys could definitely cross sports. This
would be one of the safer picks to go with
because if you get man City like that, pick a
close to gain within the NFL or whatever other sport
or league that we're discussing, and that way you can
cash out pretty well. So when we come back, we're
(08:56):
gonna be discussing with our friends from ACTI score sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more.
Want the edge, then get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello and welcome back to the free kick.
(09:27):
We have our friends from ACU score this segment. Crystal
Palace first, Arsenal. It's one of the matchups that we
wanted to discuss. Arsenal obviously have a lot of firepower
up Frank mikel Arteta figuring out what he wants to
do if he wants to build it around mess it
oats Seal. But do you see them hitting their team
total in this matchup. Yeah, Arsenal got there much needed
wind finally against Manchester United last last round to nothing,
(09:52):
which was a great show from that. They're they're moving
forward and going somewhere. Uh still, it's not a ready
team yet, so he has a lot of work to do.
Crystal Palace is definitely not the easiest of opponents to
go visit. UM. They play very defensively, very organized football
most of the time. UM. They've only conceded twenty three
(10:15):
goals in their twenty one games, nine goals at home
in ten games, so less than one goal a game,
which is a very good defensive record for a team
of Crystal Palaces caliber. UM. Also, they play in general
very low scoring games. They've only scored nineteen goals in
twenty one games themselves. So UM it's likely to be
(10:39):
a very, very defensive tactics for Crystal Palace against Arsenal,
even if Arsenal nowadays is not as threatening as they
might have been a couple of years back. UM Arsenal
should be at their best in breaking down defensive teams
like Crystal Palace, but they haven't been so far. But
(11:00):
with the Arteta, I think that's that summer where they're
moving to, but it's not ready yet. UM Arteta started
to organize the defense first, so they're not leaking goals anymore.
UM he wants to control the ball in the midfield,
which they haven't been able to do before. So I
think that Arsenal will have some problems in scoring goals UM.
(11:23):
In accu score simulations, Arsenal scores one point fifty six
goals on average if they start all three forward players
Alexander Lacaze, Nicolas Pepe and America album A Young. If
they don't start with that trio, they only score one
point five goals a game, So there is not going
to be a lot of help from other positions in
(11:45):
scoring this London. There be some interesting game because, like
Tommy said, Arsenal has started to fix their game from
the defense and Crisonal palaceies defensing team and have good
results during this season so far, but the last five
games they have scored at least three goals in this matchup,
(12:08):
and year ago the result was too too and then
two seasons ago Arsenal one three two when they visited
Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace has been struggling this season and
Arsenal really need to pick up three points as soon
as possible. Do you see them potentially winning this matchup here?
(12:29):
Because it's dire in this situation, considering the wage bill
that they have, they need to make a European spot.
Um I score predictions in total betting has been let's
say fifty because we've found a value in three of
those last five games. One was correct, one I was incorrect,
(12:51):
and one was pushed, so you barely made your money back.
But in other markets like home Wind draw away, when
the results have been reasonably okay, there has been a
gain value in every game, and then out of those
five games, two has been correct and with a good
adds that as a result profit of hundred and twenty
(13:15):
bucks if you would bet a hundred dollars in every
game told me, do you see that Arsenal will win
and it makes sense to bit on this with some value,
or do you think that there will be another drown
like year ago to two. It's a very difficult question
to answer. Arsenal is definitely a better team than Crystal
(13:36):
Palace if you take a look at the squads, but
Crystal Palaces ninth Arsenal is ten. Palace has one more
point this this season so far, and Roy Hodgson has
done remarkably good job in the in Crystal Palace especially
with the defense um So Arsenal will have hard time
in winning this game and maybe a draw would be
(13:58):
something that both teams are happy with. In simulations, Arsenal
wins with forty four point seven percent probability, Crystal Palace
with twenty seven point five percent. Personally, I would go
for the draw, which in simulations happens twenty seven point
eight percent of the time. Will be seeing if Arsenal
(14:19):
is able to take care of business there, cover the
spread in that matchup and win the game outright. But
we're going to be moving over to Newcastle and Wolves.
Wolves have been playing well as of late. Troy has
been one of the better players for them. Jimenez again
one of the top goal scorers in the league as well.
But do you see them coming into this matchup and
winning this out right. Wolverhampton is now seventh in the
(14:41):
league and they haven't played that well as we might
have expected. They have lost a little bit of the
element of surprise because other teams now know how they
are playing this game. Um. They have lost three out
of their last five games, despite winning Manchester City during
that stretch, So we don't know what kind of Wolves
(15:03):
we're gonna see against Newcastle. UM. Wolves is a better
team than Newcastle is, but that doesn't demand much um.
But they've had their problems, especially against these sort of
defensive lower level teams such as Sheffield United and Southampton
as well. They lost to Watford for example, So there
(15:24):
is something a little bit missing in their game when
they have to take control of the ball and try
to build up the game themselves, and they're not very
good at it at the moment. Against Newcastle, that's exactly
what they would have to do because Newcastle is likely
to go very defensively in this game, probably play with
five defenders as well. Um. Newcastle is not a good team,
(15:47):
but they've managed to snatch points here and there, maybe
even undeservedly. Sometimes they're not in relegation battle yet, but
they might end up there anyway. In simulations, Wolves win
with fifty eight percent probability, Newcastle takes three points with
sixteen point six percent and the draw is twenty five
(16:10):
point four percent, So it looks like Wolves have the
upper hand here. As both of these teams have been
bit elevator teams between the Premiership and Premier League and Championship,
there hasn't too much track record of prediction accuracy in
this particular matchup. Actually, during the last five years they
have met twice in Wolverhampton and there hasn't been too
(16:35):
much value to debate on either of these games as
well as wolver Hupton has been quite difficult to predict
during this season in their home games because they have
scored quite a few draws and there has been value
on both sides, but not draws in these previous games.
We discussed about how Wolves have such great firepower up front.
(16:58):
We know Patrick Cootron it hasn't been one those guys
that have been contributing to them as of late, but
they still find a way to put the goal in
the back and put the ball on the back of
the net. There. Do you see a scenario again in
which Wolves really get over their team total number in
this it could be around two. I think I like
them in that. What is your numbers? Say? When we
(17:18):
take a look of a total market right now, it
looks like the which would be the line would be
two point five And that has been the line in
those two previous games in this matchup, and both times
it has been under so there hasn't been too many
goals scored. Do you think told me that this time
(17:40):
there will be score fist or are we again looking
at under two point five? Wolves are not particularly high
scoring team and their strengths are not in the offense. Um.
That being said, they create quite a bit of chance
this and for example, Raoul Himnez is a very dangerous
(18:04):
score he scored eight goals already this season. Newcastle usually
tries to play very defensively through the defense, but they're
not very good in it as we've seen. So I
think Wolves will be able to score at least two
goals against this defense. UM. In the ACCU score simulations,
(18:24):
Wolves score one point sixty one goals on average um,
so it will be closer to two goals for them.
Newcastle manages zero point seventy two goals on average, so
I would say a good result in this game would
be to nothing for Wolves. It's going to be an
interesting week in the Premier League, so we'll see if
(18:46):
these teams can reach their team total. Obviously, Arsenal and
Wolves are going to be two teams vying for a
European spot against each other. We'll see who's going to
be able to step up between all those top goal
scoring names there. I really love all the information that
you guys put out. Everyone that watches the show, please
check them out on Twitter at act Score. Go to
their website to get some simulations to win some money
(19:07):
there because there's a lot to be made. But when
we come back, we're gonna be discussing a lot more
matchups throughout the top five leagues. Daily Rodo dot Com
learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just
give you premier advice. We play every day, all major
(19:30):
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Com optimize that in minutes, building optimize line up for
cash games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS
players joined Daily Rodo dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome
(20:04):
back to the Free Kick. We're getting back into the
premiery League action Spurs Liverpool. Let's get into the Spurs
faulting as of late. I mean, look, we we've been
on Jose Marino. We said Spurs, we're gonna make a
run trying aim for fourth place, and Chelsea has been
slipping up as well. Multiple teams have been and and
we get that that's during that stretch, but again, Spurs
(20:26):
have really been shocking. Liverpool is just absolutely unbelievable. They
still haven't lost a game this season. Um, this boat
is well really uh great for them. And I've discussed
this with Kevin Walsh on the last episode that Liverpool
is in such a great position within the league that
they're able to afford to sit guys later on in
the season when they have their Champions League matchups. But
(20:48):
a match like this where they could potentially drop points
on the road against Spurs, this is a match that
Liverpool has to win if they want to chase the
invincibles that were Arsenal. Are you feeling good. Do you
think they're not gonna they might lose this one? I
think at worst it's a draw for Liverpool. Yeah, I
think it worse, it's a draw. I'm not at all
scared about at least getting a point here, if the
(21:09):
road against the team that's supposedly supposed to be a
Champions League spot contender. That's how good Liverpool have been. Yeah,
they've been amazing. You've mentioned it, they've they've they've been invincible.
Even if they can see the goal they're scoring four
or five. I mean, it's incredible at the rate that
they've been playing. It's it's truly like it's just unreal
to see. Uh, they haven't lost. We saw the last game,
(21:31):
or at least I did. It was you know, over
the last eight five games, eighty three wins like it's
and I think match against Leicester was just the way
they just diss them and Lester didn't even look like
they were a team that was playing so well in
second place. It's head and shoulders above everyone else. And
I don't think I can recall this this past decade,
of the tents that just finished, there wasn't a team
(21:53):
that's as good. Maybe besides man City last year as
good as this Liverpool team compared to the rest of
the league. Right, yeah, it's all a step below, more
than one step below for the rest of the teams
in the league. It's it's just incredible at this chance.
I know we're talking about the Spurs here. You know,
there's still only a couple of points out from four.
I think it's six from Chelsea. You know, they they've
actually took a step back in the past few games.
(22:14):
You mentioned it before, a bit of a rough uh
running form lately. Two wins, who lost his two draws
in her last six and all calms, so not looking
too too great. They had a draw this past weekend
I think f a cup because Kane is obviously yeah,
Kane is obviously out with a big injury, the hamstring injury.
That if if he was there for me then I
would have been you know, Okay, maybe they can't get
(22:35):
a draw and the draw is plus two plus three thirty,
which would have been something nice to look at money wise,
But with Kane out, I mean you have to rely
on Sun Sun's back from the suspension, right, he's mean,
but I mean spread though, is that something plus two
much for minus one for Liverpool. That's that's even better
than what we were just talking about with before. I mean,
(22:58):
I mean, look at that. I mean, but how many
scenarios do you see Liverpool winning by multiple goals. I
think there's a lot of scenarios in which you're saying
to yourself, yeah, I definitely see that happening. Yeah, I mean,
it could definitely happen. I wouldn't be shocked if it happened.
And obviously, honestly, yeah, minus one spread at plus two
hundred is probably better. I mean, the moneyline is not
bad though, at minus one fifty. Like you you can
(23:19):
you can parlay both of those yet and make some
some nice money. I was saying, I just feel like
without without Kane, there's not that really big target threat
that that Spurs can can pose with the defense of event. Yeah,
he hasn't been playing that great. You know, he's kind
of been scoring the pens and whatnot, but in open
play it's kind of been the human song show for
them at least, So it's not something that I was
(23:41):
very worried about even if he was playing. But I'm
just saying this, even this dims their chances even further
for me, at least, I think you take Liverpool and
run with it here. And also in the last four
games that they've played against each other, the Liverpool have
won all of them. Uh so that's dating back to
a couple of seasons now, So I mean it's it's
not there's nothing really convincing for me evidence wise to
tell me Pool are going to falter here. Like you said,
(24:01):
I agree with you, at worst a draw, at worst
a drawer, yeah. And then at the same time, this
is the best defense in the league with Liverpool, and
when you don't have one of the best strikers in
the lead playing in this match, whether whether Spurs is
on a good run of form of not, and they're
not in this case, and now they don't have their
striker onta understand or see a scenario in which Spurs
even score. I mean, it's gonna be very difficult for them.
(24:24):
And we talk about how great Liverpool's attack is. That's
probably the best attacking trying in terms of chemistry going
on right now. Where for Minho, Mane and Mossala, I
don't see how Spurs are gonna be able to break
this down because again this is something that I've been
a big critic of for years with Spurs. I don't
love their defense, and especially I don't love their defense
(24:45):
when they're running in a bad stretch of form like this.
Josie Marino isn't gonna fix this overnight. They're stumbling now,
and when things start to go bad for Josie Marino teams,
it can really spiral out of control. Do you see
a scenario now in which Spurs if they lose this game,
this could be an even bigger hole and more difficult
to get back to the Champions Lee spot. Yeah, absolutely
it could be. It definitely will be a bigger hole,
(25:07):
especially with whatever Chelsea do. You have to get a
point if you and your home also, so you kind
of you have to get some sort of res all
at home. And if they come out with a draw,
I think that's a major success considering what what they've
looked like lately and how Liverpool is, you know, completely unbeaten.
It's funny that Liverpool, you know, even in the Champions
League people were like, you see, why why are they
(25:28):
playing like this? Or why why are they looking a
little bit Shakynopoly of all of all teams gets four
points out you know, it's just weird that way, and
that's how European competition works sometimes. But they qualified first,
they have nothing to worry about for what until next
till next month, late next month, mid next month, um.
And then they have, like you said, the luxury of
sitting some guys if they really want to, I mean,
(25:50):
if they win this game, they're they're fourteen points above
man sitting. I mean, it's it's it's wrapped up. It's
sealed for me. How are they going to choke this lead?
I know they've they've choked in the past, but this
is way too much, I think. But they're minus hundred
was the last odds that came out for them to
finish the league. It would be an epic collapse and
it would be the worst collapse in the sports history
(26:11):
in terms of a title race at this point, just
considering how well they're playing. But for me, I I
really love these odds that are just coming in there,
so I would jump on both Liverpool money line and
for them to cover the spread, and especially the fact
that it's out there right now when we're recording this,
this might change. And I think there is a scenario
in which you're going to see the spread change. In
terms of the money line, I don't think there's gonna
(26:32):
be too much movement. I think Liverpool is going to
be the consistent favorite there. So if you were to go,
you want to go with both of those? Yeah, I
would go for both of those. But the spread is
very enticing at plus two hundred, I think you can
you can really get something there. I know it's on
the road, but how are they going to falter? And
if they do? Even if they do, I understand, hey,
we lose some money, but it's not it's not even
(26:52):
the end of the world for Liverpool. I feel like that,
you know, club doesn't. I mean, he'll care because he's
a manager, but if they slip up here with his draw,
it's what a what a weird feeling it would be
for Arsenal fans if Liverpool lose the perfect season but
Spurs are the ones to beat them. I mean, this
is I I would love to see Arsenal fan TV,
even though it's not a game for them, but another
(27:13):
game that's just gonna be so electric and a lot
of fun to talk about. Roma Huve Roma obviously suffered
that terrible defeat yesterday against Torino. There was a two
nothing loss there Andrea Belotti getting the brace in that one.
Huve absolutely dominated Kyliotti today. Christiano Ronaldo a hat trick.
CALII obviously a team that we've discussed multiple times on
the show. They've been playing so well over the course
(27:34):
of the season. Huve. Are they finally hitting a stride
with Sadi here? I think so. I think Siano was
getting hot, Christiana is getting hot. And he started off
the decade very well. You know this all this talk
that you know he wasn't playing well, but hey, that
big header before the winter break for them, that that,
you know, was it a great goal? Everyone was talking about.
Starts off hot. He had a hat trick today, I believe. Yeah,
(27:55):
so he's he's on fire already. They beat Kyati for nothing,
and we did mention Kydie's you know, not maybe overplaying,
but just playing very well for for what they are.
With all the teams in the league right now. Um,
and you know they could start to falter a little
bit if they the big loss today, can have some
teams like Atalanta move ahead and uh not only catch
up to them too. Yeah, and they're thrashing. People will
(28:17):
get Totolta later in the show as well. Um Roma
has another home game here, which is kind of weird.
They had the game against Studio that you mentioned just
a few seconds ago. They lost to zero, like you mentioned,
so that's a big home loss. This is another one
at the Only People, and I just I can't see
I can't see you losing. I really don't all plus
(28:37):
money on then all these odds are great, All these
odds are very, very nice. So I love games like
this because really, if I I think I'm more comfortable
with a HUVE win or a draw in this scenario happening.
But there's just so much like you can't go wrong.
You literally can't go wrong in this situation. If you
love one the most, which one are you leaning towards?
Because you have a plus one thirty For me, we
(29:00):
discussed this how many times. If you see HUV plus
money anywhere, it doesn't matter if it's road home, you
gotta take them right. I'm jumping on you of it here.
I just don't see them losing. They've also come to this,
you know, halfway mark of the season, where they're tied
with the intet going into at least the time of
recording this um they were tied with the Intel. Will
see what happens with napoly in there later, but they
(29:20):
had the identical records almost you know, very similar numbers
as well. So this is the point in the season
where I think things take, you know, a turn, and
this is where they start putting their foot down and hey,
we dominated last decade, where we should start this decade
with another trophy and another league, especially after losing that
Super Cup. I know that's another thing people are gonna
look at. They lost twice twice, not once twice three
(29:42):
one to Latsio. But lots has also been playing very well,
and we'll get into them also. But you've ent this.
How do you lose, uh to to one Roman team?
Right that region Lazo twice? I don't think you lose
to Romans. Yeah, son, it would be It would be
if if, if they did lose, But you know, despite
not playing well up to this point, maybe they had
(30:04):
just started playing well, maybe right before the winter ended.
And obviously that's super Collpa defeat is something people put
in their mind as too. They don't look good. Well,
they slashed Katy completely today, So I have no I
have no doubts that you should take plus one thirty
for you at this What about the spread though, in
this scenario, I think this one favors Roma minus one
eighty for plus one at home hu A minus one
(30:25):
plus three fifty. I do see hugh A winning this.
If I'm picking a winner for me, I don't know
if it's gonna be a two goal win. I don't
see Roma losing by multiple goals like to nothing against Torino,
both Torino teams in a week. I mean, I don't know.
I I do see it potentially happening, because you wonder
when that Roman defense is going to eventually slip up right.
(30:46):
Chris Smalling isn't gonna be playing other worldly the whole season?
Would you see? Would you like c plus three fifty again,
It's like it's a big number, plus three fifty. It's
a lot of money you can make. But I'm also
with you there. I hate to be the person who degrees,
but I have to agree. I don't. I I'd rather
stay away. I just rather stay away. I think that
you know Roma was still in that Ford Spot conversation,
(31:08):
Well they are still in fourth so teams I got
Dalanta Kiety anopoly they can start getting closer depending on results,
whether they go you know, one way or not another.
But I stay with you. But just a money line,
I'm just confident with that. I think it'll be a
closer game. I don't think it'll be a blowout. It's
not gonna be three nothing. I think it depends on
how I feel later on in the week. Um, you
know how how everyone's coming off of this UVA game
(31:29):
because it just ended. For thus, I think Sadi is
gonna want to keep more continuity within this lineup, so
I would lean them. If this number is still there
plus three fifty at the end of the week, I
think I have to take it because if the number
is that minus, what I mean, how do you not
Because at the end of the day you might be
kicking yourself in the butt saying, how did I not
take you when they were plus three fifty or the
minus one? Even if it's just on the road, that
(31:51):
is a number that you should probably jump on. But
you should definitely jump on a money line number. But
when we come back, we're gonna be discussing more steady sports,
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(32:14):
dot Com. Hello everybody, and welcome back to the Free Kick.
Martino Puccio, Gio Cosalino alongside me. We're gonna keep it
rolling with a couple of top matchups in this Lazzio
Napoli kind of two teams that we thought would have
reverse roles in the season. Napoly potentially a Scudetto contender,
(32:37):
it's Latsio. At this point they've beaten hu A like
you discussed three one both times. Napoli faltering as of late.
We'll see what happens when they play Inter on Monday.
But Geo, I mean, how are you? How are you
feeling going into this? First of all, Lati has been
a really tough team. Immobili is gunning for higuain skull
scoring record. Do you have faith monopoly to shut him down?
(33:01):
I don't know, man, this is a tough matchup to
talk about. I mean, the odds are good either way here.
When you look at least on FanDuel you can get
plus odds for both teams. Latio's favorite at plus one
a plus two hundred. Obviously it's a lot of your
home game. I don't know if they can stop you Mobila,
especially if you look at the injuries. If Coolibi is
still hurt and if Maximovitch still in the back, you
(33:22):
still have to rely on Mono las as the one
true center back, and then you might have to, you know,
make have a makeshift center back in there. You could
put Luberto in there, but you might have the old
Enzo who's the right back. They kind of experimented with
that against Osolo before the break, so it's interesting to
look at that. But you mentioned in Moobulas absolutely on fire,
nineteen goals already through seventeen games so far. Uhlats you
(33:45):
had another big win last Sunday as well, so you know,
they keep rolling there in the top four spot, top
three conversation. I think they're in third actually, and they
they've stayed ahead of Romo since Roma also lost last
weekend as well, So that's another big, you know, point
of episodes for for a lot too. At least it's
very big. Um. I don't think that Napoly. It's just
(34:06):
tough to really think about it. I mean, the draw
is plus to sixty. I can see them getting a
draw away from home, but Latsio is just it's I
would look at the over here. I feel like the
over under is something you can look at here. Over
two and a half is minus one sixty four. So
clearly the oddsmakers think that there's gonna be a lot
of goals in this match. I could see the overhappening here. Yeah, no,
(34:27):
I agree with that. I mean the way you guys
have been playing in general with there's been so many
slip ups, especially from the start of the season when
they were playing against Fiorentina. And when you have a
guy like in Mobila that's just straight on fire, who's
gunning for this record. He's almost had twenty goals already,
and then we've discussed how many times since um prior
from night I believe it is only two players have
(34:49):
scored over thirty goals in league. That's Higuayan and Luca Toni,
and those were both almost a decade apart or half
a decade apart. And at this point you're just sitting
there thinking to yourself, when is this guy going to
to slow down? And when a defense is struggling like this,
you would think that he's going to be able to
score here, right I mean, I mean, look, whether it's
penalties or not, he's just getting open and he's just
(35:09):
clicking on all cylinders. And one of the best comparisons
that I've seen as of late for him is Antonio
di Natale when he was playing so great. For rudin
Is back earlier in the decade um later stretch who
really serves later in his career. Giudo was talented at
this point, but now he's in his prime. They have
this situation where Simoni and Zagi, there's a lot of
continuity with all these players. For me, not Police the
(35:31):
complete opposite of that. And then when they're going in
on the road again in one of the tougher places
to play, I don't know. I think best case scenario
if you're a nap, if you want to bet on
athletes and draw, yeah, I mean I could see that,
you know, as an not belief, and I want to
have faith in it, but to be unbiased, lots a
better team right now, you know it's your money in exactly.
I mean on paper before the season, you mentioned that
(35:53):
no one saw this coming I mean at least enters
editions we were saying and latso maybe was in the
conversation for top four before the season started, you know,
like I said, on paper looking at the roster, but
the defense has been pretty good, I mean even when
they allow goals. Charity has been a revelation. Chevy has
been amazing. He earned a spot on the national team
(36:14):
as well, and all credits to him for his story
in his background, with a journey that he's had getting
to where he is now. Um, it's hard for me.
I want to say, best case scenario, I see a
close matchup with a lot of goals that it could
be too too it could be something like that. I
like to draw up plus to sixties. To be honest,
it's it really is. And and also you know on Monday,
(36:35):
uh Notthleie played in there as well, and so we
don't know, you know what what the conditions is that
going to change your mind in this say it's not,
I guess not a great performance. You have an extra
couple of weeks with Catuso in the training there, we
know how intense he can be. If the matchup goes
well against center, say they potentially get a draw out
of that, are you more inclined to choose a draw
come this week? Yeah, I think that's fair to say.
(36:58):
For me at least based on the formers against Inte
is where I would evaluate team going into Latsio because
I feel like in recent history Napoli has gone there
and gotten results, but it's just that the form has
not been the same. But I just want to ask you.
You've were managed by God those the last year as
a melon fish. What do you think he brings Snopoli
to get results out of these bigger games? Well, I
(37:19):
mean one of the main issues that we were talking about,
and it's not really tactics in this there's a lot
of lack of effort that you see around the field
from some of the guys, And for me, you point
to the captain's armband and that's in senior and when
when you have someone like that that's not giving their
D and ten percent every single match, gotus needs that
because he'll slap guys in the face. He doesn't care
holl go after managers. If you ever recall that clip
(37:41):
against Spurs in the Champions League, he went after Joe
Jordan's throat. Anyone to go choke called him. So he's
that type of guy, and especially in a team like Napoli.
No disrespect to any of the players, there aren't many
champions on this team, right. There are some players with
winning mentalities, But when you're gonna come back and you
have a lack of effort on the field, he will
come after you. He will take you off and you
probably won't see the field for a long period of time.
(38:03):
So in terms of that, he will bring some structure there.
He's a good defensive coach. But again, when you don't
have one of the top three center backs, top two
center backs in the world in this matchup, potentially, I
mean that spells doomed for them. But Gotuso did play well,
had a lot of I mean, he had Milan playing
well against top teams, especially the Roma teams. Lazio Roma,
Milan didn't have that great of a time defeating them
(38:25):
over the course of the years. We just saw Latsio
b Milon at the Sun Serro for the first time
in thirty years. So I mean that's a testament to
what Gotuso did. We see how Milan is playing now,
absolutely dreadful. He had him one point off a Champions League,
and at the time everyone was saying that was their fault,
it was him not having them prepared for that situation.
(38:45):
But now you look back on your saying, he did
a hell of a job over there, especially in a
crisis where there's just so much moving around. Similar to
Napoli as well, they got rid of another coach and
this is really the end of the cycle that we're
talking about. So for me, I don't know. Again, would
really depend on what happens in the match against inter
for me, But if I'm leaning anywhere towards Monopoly, I
(39:06):
think I would just go for the draw finals say
with that that you just want to go with before
you move. I mean, the injuries is just a point
to look at because you mentionally believe. But they also
have a couple of guys out, you know, fab Beyond
might miss the game against int It earlier in the week,
but that hasn't happened at the time of you know
what we're talking about now, so we don't know who's
actually gonna miss what. Maximovitch has still been questionable lately
(39:27):
with the Thie injury. So you have a couple of
guys out, you know, and you have to rely on
Milick now within and you don't know who got so
once because say the performance doesn't go well, he might
want to It's only been two games. It's only been
two games within two so you don't know who he's
really gonna like. We haven't seen him utilize Lozano that
much too. Also, we don't know if he's gonna come
off the bench, what role if they're sitting some guys,
(39:47):
some guys might be outgoing. And also that this is
a frustrating part two. He has to, I believe, make
Champions League for him to officially stay on for the
next season. And so if you don't know he's gonna
be here come June, then it's really difficult to gauge
who's going to be leaving, who's coming in, Who does
he want to start, who does he want to sit.
That's why it's so difficult in situations like this for
(40:09):
me and la is so hot, I mean it Moobiles
on fire for me, I think the easier choice and
safer choice here just to go with La Mobile. Alright,
I'll go with the draw though, I mean I'll know
that's fine, that's best case. I think it'll be a
close match up, I'll go with the draw at plus
two sixty. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Latsio there, but
another top matchup into a Lanta. Atalanta ten goals in
(40:31):
their past two matchups into They've been banged up in
the midfield, but despite all of that, they're at the
top of the table for the moment before they play
Napoly on Monday GEO. For me, this is really difficult.
This one's gonna be at the San Siro, where Atalanta
have been playing their Champions League matches. They don't They're
not scared of anyone, and at this point, no one
(40:51):
is taking out a Lanta lightly because they know how
good they are advancing in the Champions League. Defeating HU
at home absolutely embarrassing Parma a melon, two sides who
would be fighting for Europa League spots. But for me,
if Inter can get their midfield healthy in this matchup,
I think I like them at home because that defense
is so stout and Atalanta does I know, they've obviously
(41:15):
had the two shoutouts, had nothing in the past two games.
I'm still not completely convinced of their defense going into this. Yeah,
I mean, look at some of their opposition as well,
it's not like they played, you know, the big teams
and of court held shutouts. So Plane has got sixteen
goals that they're one of the worst scoring teams in
the leg. Clane sheets are are are hard to come
by at least and said also recently with the top teams,
(41:37):
there's goals being scored left and right. But what's really
interesting here is, and you kind of alluded to it,
is that we have the best defense in the league
with in Debt against the best scoring team in the
league with Atalanta. Atalanta's on fire has more goals than
anyone in the league right now, added another five to
it with the with the win on Monday, so you know,
they showed no signs of stopping. But I want to
(41:57):
look at over Under. I think that's something interesting to
look out here. The oddsmakers still favor over two and
a half at minus four at least on Vanduel still,
which is interesting to me because in doesn't concede too
many goals, and they slipped up recently. They had that
big four zero win going into the break. Before that,
we saw the draw against Roma and then Fiodentina, which
(42:18):
was something that no one really saw coming. With Fida's
running form, so that's something to look at. But I'm
still confident with you in taking in dead win at
minus one ten. I just don't see Atalanta withstanding a
full intest team. I mean, it's not a fully eat
their team, but closer since he might come back uh soon,
We'll see what he does, depending on if he plays
(42:39):
against Napoli, obviously, but a lot is getting closer, not
back yet, but those pieces also contribute a lot to
what this result can be. I'm going with in dead
win at minus one ten. UM the over under though,
something that's difficult for me. I don't know what you're
gonna go with, but for me, it's difficult to say,
just because of the class as the trickiest number and
(42:59):
especially in this league and this matchup in particular. Like
you were saying, this is probably the best offensive team
currently um with ant Lanta just in terms of place
play style and the goal scoring output that they have entered.
They're obviously so stound defense that three guys, those three
guys that they put at the back is arguably, and
we say this time and time again, the best in
Europe or one of the best in Europe. So for me,
(43:21):
I have a hard time seeing Anto Lanta going on
the road and scoring multiple goals there. But for me,
Lucaco and Lata Martinez are just they're so good together.
They're one of the best combos in Europe. And I
know people people are a little hesitant to take them
just because you don't see him go through in the
Champions League. But they were in the Group of Death.
They weren't completely healthy there, they didn't have their full midfield.
(43:42):
I know they don't have their full midfield in this matchup,
but inter at the sunset, I think for me, the
spread is something that I kind of like the most
Atalanta to cover plus one minus one. I think that's
very safe. I don't think this is gonna be a
blowout either way in either direction. The worst I could
see is there too nothing win going towards into I
don't really see they're going in there, shutting them out
(44:03):
and winning by two. I think that would just actually
be crazier. I could argue that's crazier than the five
nothing against. I mean, and you mentioned it too. They're
out of the Champions League in that is so yeah,
they're doing but exactly they don't. He's not gonna really
care about the Europa League. I'm not saying he's gonna
put nobody out there and lose every game that's not eliminated.
But the goal is the league. You want to break
(44:24):
you a shriek, and Inte has been amazing even you know,
without knowing the result of this would be a massive
three point even without knowingnoly result. I don't see any
any problems in this game against South Atlanta. I really don't.
I think that a little worried about context teams. They
tend to burn out at certain points in the season.
They're thin at this point, so I I don't know.
(44:44):
I could that's the only kind of underlying issue that
and this is the usual like Inte, they do very
well the first half, start crashing the second half of
the recently Inte I'm not talking about and what not,
but I don't see it happening here. The spread is
also interesting for INTET and minus one is plus two
thirty um. But I also sort of leaning towards Atlanta
with you as well, because I think that if goals
(45:06):
are going to be scored and the odds speakers think
it's gonna be, there is gonna be over two and
a half. It's gonna be something like a two one,
a close game. So I'm not gonna go with the
minus one but for inteth covering and spread. But I
will take the money line I need to. For me,
Atlanta hasn't test hasn't been tested against some of the
better defenses in the league. Yet, you know what I mean,
In these past past couple of games, they're not facing
(45:29):
God doesn't even have to be used. And they when
they face Cuba, they were facing Cuba in there and
their tough stretch of form, and we said that one
was going to be a tough match up considering all
the issues they have in Bergamo. Both teams to score
no plus one forty really quick, yes, minus one eight?
What are you feeling? I would I like no plus
one considering interest? I think no. I think no. I
(45:50):
think it'll be a close game, but I think Inte
can keep clean, shreet. Yeah, I think it's it's risky,
but I think one of these teams for sure is
can see eating and and I would obviously lean towards Atalanta.
And if I were to rely on a team not
to score, I think would be Atalanta simply because Enters
defense is just too good. And this is a match
right here. If you pick up three points against Atalanta,
(46:12):
you're sitting a lot more comfy there. But when we
come back, we're gonna be talking about more top January
transfer windows stories. Stay tuned. Daily Rhodo dot com learned
from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give
you premier advice. We play every day, all major sports,
all year round. We never stopped industry leading DFS tools
(46:34):
and custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot Com
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games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS players
joined Daily Rodo dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome back
(47:07):
to the free Kick. January is upon us and obviously
the best topics of the month, or not just the games,
it's the potential transfers of players going around obviously. One
of the main transfers that we discussed last time was Ibra.
He's at Milan obviously and that result didn't go too
well for them in their first matchup. But another Mino
(47:27):
Raiola client is potentially on the move again, this time
Paul Paul ba in the papers. Obviously, we know he
left Manchester United, went to Huba, became a household name there,
went over a hundred million dollars back to Manchester United.
Now this is a disaster over there. Mino doesn't want
(47:47):
him there. He wants to bring him back to hub
Huba adminfield issues. Do you see this as a potential match?
Of course, it's a match, and he's had he showed
prior success there. I mean, as long as he's healthy,
there's nothing really I mean that worries not want this
guy at this point. There's so much motivation coming up
with the absolutely and they have some midfielders that are
(48:09):
a complete waste right now, Robbio is one of the
worst midfielders I've seen for what they're paying him, even
though it's a free transisi Well, this is what you've
asked for. When you're going for free transfers and you're
not spending the actual transfer fee money on these guys,
you're paying high wages like this, You're gonna have issues
because again this is the third or fourth straight season
(48:29):
barring since Marquiso left, that we're looking at Hua and
saying this is a one man midfield with right for me,
the price has to be right I think there has
to be a player two involved in this move for
it to happen. But if you're Manchester United, who would
you potentially want from Hub and a deal on top
of the money. I mean they're getting there trying. It
(48:50):
seems like they're shopping m r Chan. I mean, he's
been in the Premier League before, right, so we don't
we don't know if that's something that's left off their
Champions League spot. He's professed his discomfort within the squad
because if you're not playing in that when you signed
for a big feel like that you thought you were
gonna be in the Champions League squad. For me, I
(49:12):
just don't know right now if Huve should wait till
the summer, potentially go after a youngster like Tonali or something,
or potentially poacher midfielder from somewhere else. But I think
if they could get Paul po but he's not going
to be cup tied within the Champions League, your goal
is Champions League. You have Christiano right now in this window,
you go and make the move for him. I think
(49:32):
the most realistic point is the summer, though I think
the name they're going for, yeah, but this would be
something really tough to happen in January. I think if
you see Paul Pop believe Manchester United, Real Madrid or Huve.
Who are you picking? I say Real Madrid for now.
Still I'm going hun Man. I gotta be the country
and I think Huve have the bigger need for the
(49:53):
midfield and the way Madrid have been playing as of late,
they've just been so fantastic. There's a bunch of youngsters
there that they can go with. He's got Real Madrid.
I got hure, See you next time.
Hello everybody, and welcome to the Free Kick. I'm your host,
Martino Puccio. Alongside me is Geo Cosalino. Did you have
a good New Year? Man? Yeah, I had a great time.
Lots of food. Let's make some money now it makes someone.
I guess you're not that happy because Annapolis form as
of late. Yeah, they had a lot of terrible form
for both of our teams over the Christmas break. But
(00:25):
we're gonna get into some of the new matchups PSG
Monico this weekend. I believe this is the rematch of
the game that got canceled that we were discussing a
few weeks ago. Obviously, p s G is just on fire.
This is still their lead to lose. Um, they're more
focused on the Champions League now they got neymar back healthy.
Cavani is going to be leaving, so that situation being
sold over there I think would help a lot, especially
(00:46):
heading into a matchup like this. UM, what are you
feeling with this? I do feel like Monico has any
kind of chance of not even the cover or anything.
Obviously the odds don't favor them PSGs minus four ten
at home on the money line, I mean, this should
be an easy win right three points. I don't see
Monica having any shot here. Maybe to cover uh the
(01:07):
spread at at two, but I don't think they have
any chance at winning. I would stay away from them,
uh in the moneyline situation. They last lost on November
twenty four, there is pretty good they have a couple
of wins in a draw. But since then they had
a huge five one win against lil as well, which
is pretty big considering what they were looking like a
couple of months back when we talked about this matchup
initially and then it got postponed. But I really don't
(01:29):
have any faith in Monica. I think PSG is getting healthier.
They saw some guys out, but Kamani, who you know,
we don't know if he's leaving, probably in June, I
would assume the most likely scenario. But he came back
in the French Cup recently and scored a couple of
goals also, so if he's back in the mix with
the neymar and uh and and you have becod he
was playing very well. Yeah in bob A as well.
(01:51):
I didn't even mention him because he's he's just a
staple by now. I mean they're they're starting to runaway
with the league. It was always their league to win,
but I just think that, you know, it's started a
little of it slow. They had a couple of losses.
Usually they have one or just going defeated because the
French League is just so so basic for them at
this point. It's just it's like a UVS situation until now.
(02:11):
But yeah, PSG all the way. The only thing is
it's a minus four ten money line, so you probably
won't make much there, so you wanted to put it
within a parlay or something. But I think the spread
is something we should probably pay more attention to because
it's all plus numbers there plus two for Monaco's plus
one oh five, ps G plus one seventy. Which one
are you leaning towards, because obviously you're making out pretty
(02:33):
well if you go either direction. I just don't know,
because you're saying, like twenty six goals allowed in the
league by Monaco and the numbers plus two, I don't
know if they can actually cover that. Yeah, I don't.
I don't think, so I would lean towards PSG and
minus two you get a plus one seventy, which is
pretty good. And don't forget PSG is home for this
match as well, so it's not like they're at Monaco
(02:55):
and they're gonna have to win on the road. Um.
I think that PSG hasn't lost. It is November one,
that's when their last loss happened, so a couple of
months now and just one draw since then. They're picking
up all the points every week pretty much at this rate,
and I mean they they're going to score at least
two for me. You can look at team totals as well.
That might be something that you guys want to look at.
I now would probably hit the over with PSG. I'm
(03:15):
probably gonna be said at three. I think it's because
just because I don't think they want to keep that
two and a half, because everyone's gonna want to hit
over for that, And I mean, why wouldn't you at
that point, because two and a half goals for them
just seems like a given to me. I think three
and a half would be a crazy team one. I
think I would feel more comfortable, but I think they're
at least going to get three as a team. I
(03:37):
don't see they're really clicking on all cylinders now. Because
it took a card deal a little bit of time to,
you know, get to that point where he's feeling the
chemistry within all of his teammates. Who's playing on the
left and right wing guys aren't as healthy as you
would like them to be. But the second he gets healthy,
and like Neymar has been, there's no stopping this attack.
(03:58):
In my opinion, the depth that they have in the
quality of attack, there's no one better in the world,
and that's including Liverpool because simply Neymar and embob A
are quite possibly, on their best day, the best duo
in the world. Yeah, I could see that too. I
I completely agree. I mean, Salt and and Money will
give him a challenge for that for that title, I
guess the best dual, but it's it's high up there.
(04:19):
But I'm just going with PSG here before he movement
to our next matchup. I don't really see a worry
for PSG at home. I think I take the minus
two that's such good value for plus one seventy, especially
at home, and Monico's do for a loss. Right. We know,
it's nice that you haven't been lost since November, but
that probably wouldn't be the case if they did originally
play PSG. Anyways, when the game was scheduled then, so
(04:41):
I think I'm gonna go PSG covering the spread there
and obviously if we think that, might as well put
down the minus four ten for the money line. But
Ashton Villa and man Cities are other matchup in the
Premier League. Man City has been playing a lot better
as of late, but for me, that the whole vibe
around the club in general. When you have your manager
pet Guardiola basically can seating in a post game conference
(05:02):
press conference saying that there's no chance in trying to
catch Liverpool, just have to worry about second place, and
for me, I don't like that kind of attitude, and
I understand where he's coming from simply because thirteen fourteen
points is a large gap and that's simply insurmountable. At
this point, Leicester City has faltered a little bit and
we talked about how their in position catch them and
(05:23):
I think City will end up finishing second, but just
to sound a defeat in their voice, their favorite to
win the Champions League still for some reason, but they
have an awful matchup against Real Madrid. But in this one,
I feel like it's a given plus thirteen hundred for
aston Villa at a home Cities minus six hundred. I
mean you could look at the spread as well, City
(05:43):
covering minus two plus one forty. But for me, I
think something I like that like a lot in this
with both teams to score, yes is minus one four.
We know the injury issues that Man City have on defense.
I think this is actually the most likely outcome out
of all the possible bets. It's funny that you mentioned
that because I was gonna say, I'm probably staying away
from all the money line and spread bets because Man
(06:05):
City has on one you know once a while that game, yeah,
and and and minus six hundred, you're gonna risk a
lot and you never know what happened. Especially with the
way they've been playing lately. I mean they've been on
a better role lately. They have won seven, I think
of their last eight in all comps. But they had
that big loss to Wolves on you know, Boxing Day
week we can call it. So that was that was
a very bad loss there. But you know there was
(06:26):
that whole goalkeeper situation miss Penn, and so things happened
away at them there. It's goalkeeper defenders. I mean, things
happen in football, so I mean, you can't really uh,
you know, take that. You have to take that for
what it is. I would I would definitely go with
the Bowl teams to score though, I think that's something
you'd rather rather see here. Jack Grealish for aston Ville
(06:46):
has been amazing. Six goals, five assists every time I'm
watching them, which I'll admit is not often, but when
I'm watching them, he's usually the guys making the impact
in the midfield, attack in midfield, um, and you would
think they can get at least one, maybe even in
in garbage time when Man Cities already up. I think
you can really go with the man City win here.
I'm not I'm not afraid on the road, um, but
I'm just not. I'm just not confident taking the spread
(07:07):
because recently, you know, they haven't had those dominating four
zero wins that they've known. It's very strange because of
the way they play against certain teams, like they played
well against Leicester City. It's really just been the Kevin
de Bruner show and then Gabrielle Jay Zeus you could argue,
has been their second best player and then they're sterling.
But that whole back line is just too shaky. I
know they're expecting Laporte to come back eventually and that
(07:29):
will help eventually with the Champions League ties, but as
of right now, I know, I I don't feel confident,
especially when the numbers minus six hundred and I know,
and they're on the road too, and we know how
a lot of these teams like to play up to
this competition, especially the top teams in the Premier League
like that. When you go with the spread though, minus
two plus one forty for City, that's something I like
(07:51):
because I could see a three to a three to
one win, or if you don't even like to score,
both teams have scored no wis plus one twelve, So
if you could get a three nothing went from City,
I don't think that's out of the question. Yeah, it's
out of the question. I'm just saying in terms of money,
where I where I would be safest. But I I
think you can definitely hit that and spread also you
can still get a plus number there. I think I
(08:13):
would really you know, if you're really confident the moneyline,
go for it. But I'm just mindset and I think
that's something you would want to put in a parlay, right, Yeah,
you definitely want to parlay it, maybe with the both
teams to score or spread, but you know spreads are
tough to hit. But man City should win this one,
I think without a problem. Oh yeah, I don't think
it should be questioned at this point. I actually did
put I had I had him in a two sport
(08:33):
parlay um the other day over the weekend with Liverpool
winning that matchup. So you could do something with Manchester
City if you like a team in the NFL this
weekend as well, you guys could definitely cross sports. This
would be one of the safer picks to go with
because if you get man City like that, pick a
close to gain within the NFL or whatever other sport
or league that we're discussing, and that way you can
cash out pretty well. So when we come back, we're
(08:56):
gonna be discussing with our friends from ACTI score sports
grid dot com betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more.
Want the edge, then get on the grid sports grid
dot Com. Hello and welcome back to the free kick.
(09:27):
We have our friends from ACU score this segment. Crystal
Palace first, Arsenal. It's one of the matchups that we
wanted to discuss. Arsenal obviously have a lot of firepower
up Frank mikel Arteta figuring out what he wants to
do if he wants to build it around mess it
oats Seal. But do you see them hitting their team
total in this matchup. Yeah, Arsenal got there much needed
wind finally against Manchester United last last round to nothing,
(09:52):
which was a great show from that. They're they're moving
forward and going somewhere. Uh still, it's not a ready
team yet, so he has a lot of work to do.
Crystal Palace is definitely not the easiest of opponents to
go visit. UM. They play very defensively, very organized football
most of the time. UM. They've only conceded twenty three
(10:15):
goals in their twenty one games, nine goals at home
in ten games, so less than one goal a game,
which is a very good defensive record for a team
of Crystal Palaces caliber. UM. Also, they play in general
very low scoring games. They've only scored nineteen goals in
twenty one games themselves. So UM it's likely to be
(10:39):
a very, very defensive tactics for Crystal Palace against Arsenal,
even if Arsenal nowadays is not as threatening as they
might have been a couple of years back. UM Arsenal
should be at their best in breaking down defensive teams
like Crystal Palace, but they haven't been so far. But
(11:00):
with the Arteta, I think that's that summer where they're
moving to, but it's not ready yet. UM Arteta started
to organize the defense first, so they're not leaking goals anymore.
UM he wants to control the ball in the midfield,
which they haven't been able to do before. So I
think that Arsenal will have some problems in scoring goals UM.
(11:23):
In accu score simulations, Arsenal scores one point fifty six
goals on average if they start all three forward players
Alexander Lacaze, Nicolas Pepe and America album A Young. If
they don't start with that trio, they only score one
point five goals a game, So there is not going
to be a lot of help from other positions in
(11:45):
scoring this London. There be some interesting game because, like
Tommy said, Arsenal has started to fix their game from
the defense and Crisonal palaceies defensing team and have good
results during this season so far, but the last five
games they have scored at least three goals in this matchup,
(12:08):
and year ago the result was too too and then
two seasons ago Arsenal one three two when they visited
Crystal Palace. Crystal Palace has been struggling this season and
Arsenal really need to pick up three points as soon
as possible. Do you see them potentially winning this matchup here?
(12:29):
Because it's dire in this situation, considering the wage bill
that they have, they need to make a European spot.
Um I score predictions in total betting has been let's
say fifty because we've found a value in three of
those last five games. One was correct, one I was incorrect,
(12:51):
and one was pushed, so you barely made your money back.
But in other markets like home Wind draw away, when
the results have been reasonably okay, there has been a
gain value in every game, and then out of those
five games, two has been correct and with a good
adds that as a result profit of hundred and twenty
(13:15):
bucks if you would bet a hundred dollars in every
game told me, do you see that Arsenal will win
and it makes sense to bit on this with some value,
or do you think that there will be another drown
like year ago to two. It's a very difficult question
to answer. Arsenal is definitely a better team than Crystal
(13:36):
Palace if you take a look at the squads, but
Crystal Palaces ninth Arsenal is ten. Palace has one more
point this this season so far, and Roy Hodgson has
done remarkably good job in the in Crystal Palace especially
with the defense um So Arsenal will have hard time
in winning this game and maybe a draw would be
(13:58):
something that both teams are happy with. In simulations, Arsenal
wins with forty four point seven percent probability, Crystal Palace
with twenty seven point five percent. Personally, I would go
for the draw, which in simulations happens twenty seven point
eight percent of the time. Will be seeing if Arsenal
(14:19):
is able to take care of business there, cover the
spread in that matchup and win the game outright. But
we're going to be moving over to Newcastle and Wolves.
Wolves have been playing well as of late. Troy has
been one of the better players for them. Jimenez again
one of the top goal scorers in the league as well.
But do you see them coming into this matchup and
winning this out right. Wolverhampton is now seventh in the
(14:41):
league and they haven't played that well as we might
have expected. They have lost a little bit of the
element of surprise because other teams now know how they
are playing this game. Um. They have lost three out
of their last five games, despite winning Manchester City during
that stretch, So we don't know what kind of Wolves
(15:03):
we're gonna see against Newcastle. UM. Wolves is a better
team than Newcastle is, but that doesn't demand much um.
But they've had their problems, especially against these sort of
defensive lower level teams such as Sheffield United and Southampton
as well. They lost to Watford for example, So there
(15:24):
is something a little bit missing in their game when
they have to take control of the ball and try
to build up the game themselves, and they're not very
good at it at the moment. Against Newcastle, that's exactly
what they would have to do because Newcastle is likely
to go very defensively in this game, probably play with
five defenders as well. Um. Newcastle is not a good team,
(15:47):
but they've managed to snatch points here and there, maybe
even undeservedly. Sometimes they're not in relegation battle yet, but
they might end up there anyway. In simulations, Wolves win
with fifty eight percent probability, Newcastle takes three points with
sixteen point six percent and the draw is twenty five
(16:10):
point four percent, So it looks like Wolves have the
upper hand here. As both of these teams have been
bit elevator teams between the Premiership and Premier League and Championship,
there hasn't too much track record of prediction accuracy in
this particular matchup. Actually, during the last five years they
have met twice in Wolverhampton and there hasn't been too
(16:35):
much value to debate on either of these games as
well as wolver Hupton has been quite difficult to predict
during this season in their home games because they have
scored quite a few draws and there has been value
on both sides, but not draws in these previous games.
We discussed about how Wolves have such great firepower up front.
(16:58):
We know Patrick Cootron it hasn't been one those guys
that have been contributing to them as of late, but
they still find a way to put the goal in
the back and put the ball on the back of
the net. There. Do you see a scenario again in
which Wolves really get over their team total number in
this it could be around two. I think I like
them in that. What is your numbers? Say? When we
(17:18):
take a look of a total market right now, it
looks like the which would be the line would be
two point five And that has been the line in
those two previous games in this matchup, and both times
it has been under so there hasn't been too many
goals scored. Do you think told me that this time
(17:40):
there will be score fist or are we again looking
at under two point five? Wolves are not particularly high
scoring team and their strengths are not in the offense. Um.
That being said, they create quite a bit of chance
this and for example, Raoul Himnez is a very dangerous
(18:04):
score he scored eight goals already this season. Newcastle usually
tries to play very defensively through the defense, but they're
not very good in it as we've seen. So I
think Wolves will be able to score at least two
goals against this defense. UM. In the ACCU score simulations,
(18:24):
Wolves score one point sixty one goals on average um,
so it will be closer to two goals for them.
Newcastle manages zero point seventy two goals on average, so
I would say a good result in this game would
be to nothing for Wolves. It's going to be an
interesting week in the Premier League, so we'll see if
(18:46):
these teams can reach their team total. Obviously, Arsenal and
Wolves are going to be two teams vying for a
European spot against each other. We'll see who's going to
be able to step up between all those top goal
scoring names there. I really love all the information that
you guys put out. Everyone that watches the show, please
check them out on Twitter at act Score. Go to
their website to get some simulations to win some money
(19:07):
there because there's a lot to be made. But when
we come back, we're gonna be discussing a lot more
matchups throughout the top five leagues. Daily Rodo dot Com
learned from the game's best DFS players. We don't just
give you premier advice. We play every day, all major
(19:30):
sports all year round. We never stop. Industry leading DFS
tools and custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot
Com optimize that in minutes, building optimize line up for
cash games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS
players joined Daily Rodo dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome
(20:04):
back to the Free Kick. We're getting back into the
premiery League action Spurs Liverpool. Let's get into the Spurs
faulting as of late. I mean, look, we we've been
on Jose Marino. We said Spurs, we're gonna make a
run trying aim for fourth place, and Chelsea has been
slipping up as well. Multiple teams have been and and
we get that that's during that stretch, but again, Spurs
(20:26):
have really been shocking. Liverpool is just absolutely unbelievable. They
still haven't lost a game this season. Um, this boat
is well really uh great for them. And I've discussed
this with Kevin Walsh on the last episode that Liverpool
is in such a great position within the league that
they're able to afford to sit guys later on in
the season when they have their Champions League matchups. But
(20:48):
a match like this where they could potentially drop points
on the road against Spurs, this is a match that
Liverpool has to win if they want to chase the
invincibles that were Arsenal. Are you feeling good. Do you
think they're not gonna they might lose this one? I
think at worst it's a draw for Liverpool. Yeah, I
think it worse, it's a draw. I'm not at all
scared about at least getting a point here, if the
(21:09):
road against the team that's supposedly supposed to be a
Champions League spot contender. That's how good Liverpool have been. Yeah,
they've been amazing. You've mentioned it, they've they've they've been invincible.
Even if they can see the goal they're scoring four
or five. I mean, it's incredible at the rate that
they've been playing. It's it's truly like it's just unreal
to see. Uh, they haven't lost. We saw the last game,
(21:31):
or at least I did. It was you know, over
the last eight five games, eighty three wins like it's
and I think match against Leicester was just the way
they just diss them and Lester didn't even look like
they were a team that was playing so well in
second place. It's head and shoulders above everyone else. And
I don't think I can recall this this past decade,
of the tents that just finished, there wasn't a team
(21:53):
that's as good. Maybe besides man City last year as
good as this Liverpool team compared to the rest of
the league. Right, yeah, it's all a step below, more
than one step below for the rest of the teams
in the league. It's it's just incredible at this chance.
I know we're talking about the Spurs here. You know,
there's still only a couple of points out from four.
I think it's six from Chelsea. You know, they they've
actually took a step back in the past few games.
(22:14):
You mentioned it before, a bit of a rough uh
running form lately. Two wins, who lost his two draws
in her last six and all calms, so not looking
too too great. They had a draw this past weekend
I think f a cup because Kane is obviously yeah,
Kane is obviously out with a big injury, the hamstring injury.
That if if he was there for me then I
would have been you know, Okay, maybe they can't get
(22:35):
a draw and the draw is plus two plus three thirty,
which would have been something nice to look at money wise,
But with Kane out, I mean you have to rely
on Sun Sun's back from the suspension, right, he's mean,
but I mean spread though, is that something plus two
much for minus one for Liverpool. That's that's even better
than what we were just talking about with before. I mean,
(22:58):
I mean, look at that. I mean, but how many
scenarios do you see Liverpool winning by multiple goals. I
think there's a lot of scenarios in which you're saying
to yourself, yeah, I definitely see that happening. Yeah, I mean,
it could definitely happen. I wouldn't be shocked if it happened.
And obviously, honestly, yeah, minus one spread at plus two
hundred is probably better. I mean, the moneyline is not
bad though, at minus one fifty. Like you you can
(23:19):
you can parlay both of those yet and make some
some nice money. I was saying, I just feel like
without without Kane, there's not that really big target threat
that that Spurs can can pose with the defense of event. Yeah,
he hasn't been playing that great. You know, he's kind
of been scoring the pens and whatnot, but in open
play it's kind of been the human song show for
them at least, So it's not something that I was
(23:41):
very worried about even if he was playing. But I'm
just saying this, even this dims their chances even further
for me, at least, I think you take Liverpool and
run with it here. And also in the last four
games that they've played against each other, the Liverpool have
won all of them. Uh so that's dating back to
a couple of seasons now, So I mean it's it's
not there's nothing really convincing for me evidence wise to
tell me Pool are going to falter here. Like you said,
(24:01):
I agree with you, at worst a draw, at worst
a drawer, yeah. And then at the same time, this
is the best defense in the league with Liverpool, and
when you don't have one of the best strikers in
the lead playing in this match, whether whether Spurs is
on a good run of form of not, and they're
not in this case, and now they don't have their
striker onta understand or see a scenario in which Spurs
even score. I mean, it's gonna be very difficult for them.
(24:24):
And we talk about how great Liverpool's attack is. That's
probably the best attacking trying in terms of chemistry going
on right now. Where for Minho, Mane and Mossala, I
don't see how Spurs are gonna be able to break
this down because again this is something that I've been
a big critic of for years with Spurs. I don't
love their defense, and especially I don't love their defense
(24:45):
when they're running in a bad stretch of form like this.
Josie Marino isn't gonna fix this overnight. They're stumbling now,
and when things start to go bad for Josie Marino teams,
it can really spiral out of control. Do you see
a scenario now in which Spurs if they lose this game,
this could be an even bigger hole and more difficult
to get back to the Champions Lee spot. Yeah, absolutely
it could be. It definitely will be a bigger hole,
(25:07):
especially with whatever Chelsea do. You have to get a
point if you and your home also, so you kind
of you have to get some sort of res all
at home. And if they come out with a draw,
I think that's a major success considering what what they've
looked like lately and how Liverpool is, you know, completely unbeaten.
It's funny that Liverpool, you know, even in the Champions
League people were like, you see, why why are they
(25:28):
playing like this? Or why why are they looking a
little bit Shakynopoly of all of all teams gets four
points out you know, it's just weird that way, and
that's how European competition works sometimes. But they qualified first,
they have nothing to worry about for what until next
till next month, late next month, mid next month, um.
And then they have, like you said, the luxury of
sitting some guys if they really want to, I mean,
(25:50):
if they win this game, they're they're fourteen points above
man sitting. I mean, it's it's it's wrapped up. It's
sealed for me. How are they going to choke this lead?
I know they've they've choked in the past, but this
is way too much, I think. But they're minus hundred
was the last odds that came out for them to
finish the league. It would be an epic collapse and
it would be the worst collapse in the sports history
(26:11):
in terms of a title race at this point, just
considering how well they're playing. But for me, I I
really love these odds that are just coming in there,
so I would jump on both Liverpool money line and
for them to cover the spread, and especially the fact
that it's out there right now when we're recording this,
this might change. And I think there is a scenario
in which you're going to see the spread change. In
terms of the money line, I don't think there's gonna
(26:32):
be too much movement. I think Liverpool is going to
be the consistent favorite there. So if you were to go,
you want to go with both of those? Yeah, I
would go for both of those. But the spread is
very enticing at plus two hundred, I think you can
you can really get something there. I know it's on
the road, but how are they going to falter? And
if they do? Even if they do, I understand, hey,
we lose some money, but it's not it's not even
(26:52):
the end of the world for Liverpool. I feel like that,
you know, club doesn't. I mean, he'll care because he's
a manager, but if they slip up here with his draw,
it's what a what a weird feeling it would be
for Arsenal fans if Liverpool lose the perfect season but
Spurs are the ones to beat them. I mean, this
is I I would love to see Arsenal fan TV,
even though it's not a game for them, but another
(27:13):
game that's just gonna be so electric and a lot
of fun to talk about. Roma Huve Roma obviously suffered
that terrible defeat yesterday against Torino. There was a two
nothing loss there Andrea Belotti getting the brace in that one.
Huve absolutely dominated Kyliotti today. Christiano Ronaldo a hat trick.
CALII obviously a team that we've discussed multiple times on
the show. They've been playing so well over the course
(27:34):
of the season. Huve. Are they finally hitting a stride
with Sadi here? I think so. I think Siano was
getting hot, Christiana is getting hot. And he started off
the decade very well. You know this all this talk
that you know he wasn't playing well, but hey, that
big header before the winter break for them, that that,
you know, was it a great goal? Everyone was talking about.
Starts off hot. He had a hat trick today, I believe. Yeah,
(27:55):
so he's he's on fire already. They beat Kyati for nothing,
and we did mention Kydie's you know, not maybe overplaying,
but just playing very well for for what they are.
With all the teams in the league right now. Um,
and you know they could start to falter a little
bit if they the big loss today, can have some
teams like Atalanta move ahead and uh not only catch
up to them too. Yeah, and they're thrashing. People will
(28:17):
get Totolta later in the show as well. Um Roma
has another home game here, which is kind of weird.
They had the game against Studio that you mentioned just
a few seconds ago. They lost to zero, like you mentioned,
so that's a big home loss. This is another one
at the Only People, and I just I can't see
I can't see you losing. I really don't all plus
(28:37):
money on then all these odds are great, All these
odds are very, very nice. So I love games like
this because really, if I I think I'm more comfortable
with a HUVE win or a draw in this scenario happening.
But there's just so much like you can't go wrong.
You literally can't go wrong in this situation. If you
love one the most, which one are you leaning towards?
Because you have a plus one thirty For me, we
(29:00):
discussed this how many times. If you see HUV plus
money anywhere, it doesn't matter if it's road home, you
gotta take them right. I'm jumping on you of it here.
I just don't see them losing. They've also come to this,
you know, halfway mark of the season, where they're tied
with the intet going into at least the time of
recording this um they were tied with the Intel. Will
see what happens with napoly in there later, but they
(29:20):
had the identical records almost you know, very similar numbers
as well. So this is the point in the season
where I think things take, you know, a turn, and
this is where they start putting their foot down and hey,
we dominated last decade, where we should start this decade
with another trophy and another league, especially after losing that
Super Cup. I know that's another thing people are gonna
look at. They lost twice twice, not once twice three
(29:42):
one to Latsio. But lots has also been playing very well,
and we'll get into them also. But you've ent this.
How do you lose, uh to to one Roman team?
Right that region Lazo twice? I don't think you lose
to Romans. Yeah, son, it would be It would be
if if, if they did lose, But you know, despite
not playing well up to this point, maybe they had
(30:04):
just started playing well, maybe right before the winter ended.
And obviously that's super Collpa defeat is something people put
in their mind as too. They don't look good. Well,
they slashed Katy completely today, So I have no I
have no doubts that you should take plus one thirty
for you at this What about the spread though, in
this scenario, I think this one favors Roma minus one
eighty for plus one at home hu A minus one
(30:25):
plus three fifty. I do see hugh A winning this.
If I'm picking a winner for me, I don't know
if it's gonna be a two goal win. I don't
see Roma losing by multiple goals like to nothing against Torino,
both Torino teams in a week. I mean, I don't know.
I I do see it potentially happening, because you wonder
when that Roman defense is going to eventually slip up right.
(30:46):
Chris Smalling isn't gonna be playing other worldly the whole season?
Would you see? Would you like c plus three fifty again,
It's like it's a big number, plus three fifty. It's
a lot of money you can make. But I'm also
with you there. I hate to be the person who degrees,
but I have to agree. I don't. I I'd rather
stay away. I just rather stay away. I think that
you know Roma was still in that Ford Spot conversation,
(31:08):
Well they are still in fourth so teams I got
Dalanta Kiety anopoly they can start getting closer depending on results,
whether they go you know, one way or not another.
But I stay with you. But just a money line,
I'm just confident with that. I think it'll be a
closer game. I don't think it'll be a blowout. It's
not gonna be three nothing. I think it depends on
how I feel later on in the week. Um, you
know how how everyone's coming off of this UVA game
(31:29):
because it just ended. For thus, I think Sadi is
gonna want to keep more continuity within this lineup, so
I would lean them. If this number is still there
plus three fifty at the end of the week, I
think I have to take it because if the number
is that minus, what I mean, how do you not
Because at the end of the day you might be
kicking yourself in the butt saying, how did I not
take you when they were plus three fifty or the
minus one? Even if it's just on the road, that
(31:51):
is a number that you should probably jump on. But
you should definitely jump on a money line number. But
when we come back, we're gonna be discussing more steady sports,
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(32:14):
dot Com. Hello everybody, and welcome back to the Free Kick.
Martino Puccio, Gio Cosalino alongside me. We're gonna keep it
rolling with a couple of top matchups in this Lazzio
Napoli kind of two teams that we thought would have
reverse roles in the season. Napoly potentially a Scudetto contender,
(32:37):
it's Latsio. At this point they've beaten hu A like
you discussed three one both times. Napoli faltering as of late.
We'll see what happens when they play Inter on Monday.
But Geo, I mean, how are you? How are you
feeling going into this? First of all, Lati has been
a really tough team. Immobili is gunning for higuain skull
scoring record. Do you have faith monopoly to shut him down?
(33:01):
I don't know, man, this is a tough matchup to
talk about. I mean, the odds are good either way here.
When you look at least on FanDuel you can get
plus odds for both teams. Latio's favorite at plus one
a plus two hundred. Obviously it's a lot of your
home game. I don't know if they can stop you Mobila,
especially if you look at the injuries. If Coolibi is
still hurt and if Maximovitch still in the back, you
(33:22):
still have to rely on Mono las as the one
true center back, and then you might have to, you know,
make have a makeshift center back in there. You could
put Luberto in there, but you might have the old
Enzo who's the right back. They kind of experimented with
that against Osolo before the break, so it's interesting to
look at that. But you mentioned in Moobulas absolutely on fire,
nineteen goals already through seventeen games so far. Uhlats you
(33:45):
had another big win last Sunday as well, so you know,
they keep rolling there in the top four spot, top
three conversation. I think they're in third actually, and they
they've stayed ahead of Romo since Roma also lost last
weekend as well, So that's another big, you know, point
of episodes for for a lot too. At least it's
very big. Um. I don't think that Napoly. It's just
(34:06):
tough to really think about it. I mean, the draw
is plus to sixty. I can see them getting a
draw away from home, but Latsio is just it's I
would look at the over here. I feel like the
over under is something you can look at here. Over
two and a half is minus one sixty four. So
clearly the oddsmakers think that there's gonna be a lot
of goals in this match. I could see the overhappening here. Yeah, no,
(34:27):
I agree with that. I mean the way you guys
have been playing in general with there's been so many
slip ups, especially from the start of the season when
they were playing against Fiorentina. And when you have a
guy like in Mobila that's just straight on fire, who's
gunning for this record. He's almost had twenty goals already,
and then we've discussed how many times since um prior
from night I believe it is only two players have
(34:49):
scored over thirty goals in league. That's Higuayan and Luca Toni,
and those were both almost a decade apart or half
a decade apart. And at this point you're just sitting
there thinking to yourself, when is this guy going to
to slow down? And when a defense is struggling like this,
you would think that he's going to be able to
score here, right I mean, I mean, look, whether it's
penalties or not, he's just getting open and he's just
(35:09):
clicking on all cylinders. And one of the best comparisons
that I've seen as of late for him is Antonio
di Natale when he was playing so great. For rudin
Is back earlier in the decade um later stretch who
really serves later in his career. Giudo was talented at
this point, but now he's in his prime. They have
this situation where Simoni and Zagi, there's a lot of
continuity with all these players. For me, not Police the
(35:31):
complete opposite of that. And then when they're going in
on the road again in one of the tougher places
to play, I don't know. I think best case scenario
if you're a nap, if you want to bet on
athletes and draw, yeah, I mean I could see that,
you know, as an not belief, and I want to
have faith in it, but to be unbiased, lots a
better team right now, you know it's your money in exactly.
I mean on paper before the season, you mentioned that
(35:53):
no one saw this coming I mean at least enters
editions we were saying and latso maybe was in the
conversation for top four before the season started, you know,
like I said, on paper looking at the roster, but
the defense has been pretty good, I mean even when
they allow goals. Charity has been a revelation. Chevy has
been amazing. He earned a spot on the national team
(36:14):
as well, and all credits to him for his story
in his background, with a journey that he's had getting
to where he is now. Um, it's hard for me.
I want to say, best case scenario, I see a
close matchup with a lot of goals that it could
be too too it could be something like that. I
like to draw up plus to sixties. To be honest,
it's it really is. And and also you know on Monday,
(36:35):
uh Notthleie played in there as well, and so we
don't know, you know what what the conditions is that
going to change your mind in this say it's not,
I guess not a great performance. You have an extra
couple of weeks with Catuso in the training there, we
know how intense he can be. If the matchup goes
well against center, say they potentially get a draw out
of that, are you more inclined to choose a draw
come this week? Yeah, I think that's fair to say.
(36:58):
For me at least based on the formers against Inte
is where I would evaluate team going into Latsio because
I feel like in recent history Napoli has gone there
and gotten results, but it's just that the form has
not been the same. But I just want to ask you.
You've were managed by God those the last year as
a melon fish. What do you think he brings Snopoli
to get results out of these bigger games? Well, I
(37:19):
mean one of the main issues that we were talking about,
and it's not really tactics in this there's a lot
of lack of effort that you see around the field
from some of the guys, And for me, you point
to the captain's armband and that's in senior and when
when you have someone like that that's not giving their
D and ten percent every single match, gotus needs that
because he'll slap guys in the face. He doesn't care
holl go after managers. If you ever recall that clip
(37:41):
against Spurs in the Champions League, he went after Joe
Jordan's throat. Anyone to go choke called him. So he's
that type of guy, and especially in a team like Napoli.
No disrespect to any of the players, there aren't many
champions on this team, right. There are some players with
winning mentalities, But when you're gonna come back and you
have a lack of effort on the field, he will
come after you. He will take you off and you
probably won't see the field for a long period of time.
(38:03):
So in terms of that, he will bring some structure there.
He's a good defensive coach. But again, when you don't
have one of the top three center backs, top two
center backs in the world in this matchup, potentially, I
mean that spells doomed for them. But Gotuso did play well,
had a lot of I mean, he had Milan playing
well against top teams, especially the Roma teams. Lazio Roma,
Milan didn't have that great of a time defeating them
(38:25):
over the course of the years. We just saw Latsio
b Milon at the Sun Serro for the first time
in thirty years. So I mean that's a testament to
what Gotuso did. We see how Milan is playing now,
absolutely dreadful. He had him one point off a Champions League,
and at the time everyone was saying that was their fault,
it was him not having them prepared for that situation.
(38:45):
But now you look back on your saying, he did
a hell of a job over there, especially in a
crisis where there's just so much moving around. Similar to
Napoli as well, they got rid of another coach and
this is really the end of the cycle that we're
talking about. So for me, I don't know. Again, would
really depend on what happens in the match against inter
for me, But if I'm leaning anywhere towards Monopoly, I
(39:06):
think I would just go for the draw finals say
with that that you just want to go with before
you move. I mean, the injuries is just a point
to look at because you mentionally believe. But they also
have a couple of guys out, you know, fab Beyond
might miss the game against int It earlier in the week,
but that hasn't happened at the time of you know
what we're talking about now, so we don't know who's
actually gonna miss what. Maximovitch has still been questionable lately
(39:27):
with the Thie injury. So you have a couple of
guys out, you know, and you have to rely on
Milick now within and you don't know who got so
once because say the performance doesn't go well, he might
want to It's only been two games. It's only been
two games within two so you don't know who he's
really gonna like. We haven't seen him utilize Lozano that
much too. Also, we don't know if he's gonna come
off the bench, what role if they're sitting some guys,
(39:47):
some guys might be outgoing. And also that this is
a frustrating part two. He has to, I believe, make
Champions League for him to officially stay on for the
next season. And so if you don't know he's gonna
be here come June, then it's really difficult to gauge
who's going to be leaving, who's coming in, Who does
he want to start, who does he want to sit.
That's why it's so difficult in situations like this for
(40:09):
me and la is so hot, I mean it Moobiles
on fire for me, I think the easier choice and
safer choice here just to go with La Mobile. Alright,
I'll go with the draw though, I mean I'll know
that's fine, that's best case. I think it'll be a
close match up, I'll go with the draw at plus
two sixty. Yeah, I'm gonna go with Latsio there, but
another top matchup into a Lanta. Atalanta ten goals in
(40:31):
their past two matchups into They've been banged up in
the midfield, but despite all of that, they're at the
top of the table for the moment before they play
Napoly on Monday GEO. For me, this is really difficult.
This one's gonna be at the San Siro, where Atalanta
have been playing their Champions League matches. They don't They're
not scared of anyone, and at this point, no one
(40:51):
is taking out a Lanta lightly because they know how
good they are advancing in the Champions League. Defeating HU
at home absolutely embarrassing Parma a melon, two sides who
would be fighting for Europa League spots. But for me,
if Inter can get their midfield healthy in this matchup,
I think I like them at home because that defense
is so stout and Atalanta does I know, they've obviously
(41:15):
had the two shoutouts, had nothing in the past two games.
I'm still not completely convinced of their defense going into this. Yeah,
I mean, look at some of their opposition as well,
it's not like they played, you know, the big teams
and of court held shutouts. So Plane has got sixteen
goals that they're one of the worst scoring teams in
the leg. Clane sheets are are are hard to come
by at least and said also recently with the top teams,
(41:37):
there's goals being scored left and right. But what's really
interesting here is, and you kind of alluded to it,
is that we have the best defense in the league
with in Debt against the best scoring team in the
league with Atalanta. Atalanta's on fire has more goals than
anyone in the league right now, added another five to
it with the with the win on Monday, so you know,
they showed no signs of stopping. But I want to
(41:57):
look at over Under. I think that's something interesting to
look out here. The oddsmakers still favor over two and
a half at minus four at least on Vanduel still,
which is interesting to me because in doesn't concede too
many goals, and they slipped up recently. They had that
big four zero win going into the break. Before that,
we saw the draw against Roma and then Fiodentina, which
(42:18):
was something that no one really saw coming. With Fida's
running form, so that's something to look at. But I'm
still confident with you in taking in dead win at
minus one ten. I just don't see Atalanta withstanding a
full intest team. I mean, it's not a fully eat
their team, but closer since he might come back uh soon,
We'll see what he does, depending on if he plays
(42:39):
against Napoli, obviously, but a lot is getting closer, not
back yet, but those pieces also contribute a lot to
what this result can be. I'm going with in dead
win at minus one ten. UM the over under though,
something that's difficult for me. I don't know what you're
gonna go with, but for me, it's difficult to say,
just because of the class as the trickiest number and
(42:59):
especially in this league and this matchup in particular. Like
you were saying, this is probably the best offensive team
currently um with ant Lanta just in terms of place
play style and the goal scoring output that they have entered.
They're obviously so stound defense that three guys, those three
guys that they put at the back is arguably, and
we say this time and time again, the best in
Europe or one of the best in Europe. So for me,
(43:21):
I have a hard time seeing Anto Lanta going on
the road and scoring multiple goals there. But for me,
Lucaco and Lata Martinez are just they're so good together.
They're one of the best combos in Europe. And I
know people people are a little hesitant to take them
just because you don't see him go through in the
Champions League. But they were in the Group of Death.
They weren't completely healthy there, they didn't have their full midfield.
(43:42):
I know they don't have their full midfield in this matchup,
but inter at the sunset, I think for me, the
spread is something that I kind of like the most
Atalanta to cover plus one minus one. I think that's
very safe. I don't think this is gonna be a
blowout either way in either direction. The worst I could
see is there too nothing win going towards into I
don't really see they're going in there, shutting them out
(44:03):
and winning by two. I think that would just actually
be crazier. I could argue that's crazier than the five
nothing against. I mean, and you mentioned it too. They're
out of the Champions League in that is so yeah,
they're doing but exactly they don't. He's not gonna really
care about the Europa League. I'm not saying he's gonna
put nobody out there and lose every game that's not eliminated.
But the goal is the league. You want to break
(44:24):
you a shriek, and Inte has been amazing even you know,
without knowing the result of this would be a massive
three point even without knowingnoly result. I don't see any
any problems in this game against South Atlanta. I really don't.
I think that a little worried about context teams. They
tend to burn out at certain points in the season.
They're thin at this point, so I I don't know.
(44:44):
I could that's the only kind of underlying issue that
and this is the usual like Inte, they do very
well the first half, start crashing the second half of
the recently Inte I'm not talking about and what not,
but I don't see it happening here. The spread is
also interesting for INTET and minus one is plus two
thirty um. But I also sort of leaning towards Atlanta
with you as well, because I think that if goals
(45:06):
are going to be scored and the odds speakers think
it's gonna be, there is gonna be over two and
a half. It's gonna be something like a two one,
a close game. So I'm not gonna go with the
minus one but for inteth covering and spread. But I
will take the money line I need to. For me,
Atlanta hasn't test hasn't been tested against some of the
better defenses in the league. Yet, you know what I mean,
In these past past couple of games, they're not facing
(45:29):
God doesn't even have to be used. And they when
they face Cuba, they were facing Cuba in there and
their tough stretch of form, and we said that one
was going to be a tough match up considering all
the issues they have in Bergamo. Both teams to score
no plus one forty really quick, yes, minus one eight?
What are you feeling? I would I like no plus
one considering interest? I think no. I think no. I
(45:50):
think it'll be a close game, but I think Inte
can keep clean, shreet. Yeah, I think it's it's risky,
but I think one of these teams for sure is
can see eating and and I would obviously lean towards Atalanta.
And if I were to rely on a team not
to score, I think would be Atalanta simply because Enters
defense is just too good. And this is a match
right here. If you pick up three points against Atalanta,
(46:12):
you're sitting a lot more comfy there. But when we
come back, we're gonna be talking about more top January
transfer windows stories. Stay tuned. Daily Rhodo dot com learned
from the game's best DFS players. We don't just give
you premier advice. We play every day, all major sports,
all year round. We never stopped industry leading DFS tools
(46:34):
and custom projections, and now the Daily Rodo dot Com
optimize them in minutes building, optimize line up for cash
games and turneys learned from the game's best DFS players
joined Daily Rodo dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome back
(47:07):
to the free Kick. January is upon us and obviously
the best topics of the month, or not just the games,
it's the potential transfers of players going around obviously. One
of the main transfers that we discussed last time was Ibra.
He's at Milan obviously and that result didn't go too
well for them in their first matchup. But another Mino
(47:27):
Raiola client is potentially on the move again, this time
Paul Paul ba in the papers. Obviously, we know he
left Manchester United, went to Huba, became a household name there,
went over a hundred million dollars back to Manchester United.
Now this is a disaster over there. Mino doesn't want
(47:47):
him there. He wants to bring him back to hub
Huba adminfield issues. Do you see this as a potential match?
Of course, it's a match, and he's had he showed
prior success there. I mean, as long as he's healthy,
there's nothing really I mean that worries not want this
guy at this point. There's so much motivation coming up
with the absolutely and they have some midfielders that are
(48:09):
a complete waste right now, Robbio is one of the
worst midfielders I've seen for what they're paying him, even
though it's a free transisi Well, this is what you've
asked for. When you're going for free transfers and you're
not spending the actual transfer fee money on these guys,
you're paying high wages like this, You're gonna have issues
because again this is the third or fourth straight season
(48:29):
barring since Marquiso left, that we're looking at Hua and
saying this is a one man midfield with right for me,
the price has to be right I think there has
to be a player two involved in this move for
it to happen. But if you're Manchester United, who would
you potentially want from Hub and a deal on top
of the money. I mean they're getting there trying. It
(48:50):
seems like they're shopping m r Chan. I mean, he's
been in the Premier League before, right, so we don't
we don't know if that's something that's left off their
Champions League spot. He's professed his discomfort within the squad
because if you're not playing in that when you signed
for a big feel like that you thought you were
gonna be in the Champions League squad. For me, I
(49:12):
just don't know right now if Huve should wait till
the summer, potentially go after a youngster like Tonali or something,
or potentially poacher midfielder from somewhere else. But I think
if they could get Paul po but he's not going
to be cup tied within the Champions League, your goal
is Champions League. You have Christiano right now in this window,
you go and make the move for him. I think
(49:32):
the most realistic point is the summer, though I think
the name they're going for, yeah, but this would be
something really tough to happen in January. I think if
you see Paul Pop believe Manchester United, Real Madrid or Huve.
Who are you picking? I say Real Madrid for now.
Still I'm going hun Man. I gotta be the country
and I think Huve have the bigger need for the
(49:53):
midfield and the way Madrid have been playing as of late,
they've just been so fantastic. There's a bunch of youngsters
there that they can go with. He's got Real Madrid.
I got hure, See you next time.
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