When Do Presidential Approval Ratings Really Matter?

A president's approval rating may seem like just another number, but statistically speaking, it can have a huge impact on American politics. Learn why in this episode of BrainStuff.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Welcome to brain Stuff from How Stuff Works, Hey, brain Stuff,
Lauren vogelbamb here. Voting is the ultimate popularity contest in
the United States. Voters have the opportunity at least every
two years to cast ballots in federal elections, either filling
seats in the U. S. House of Representatives, the U. S. Senate,
or the White House, but operating non stop between those

(00:24):
elections is a political prognostication machine designed to predict the
next batch of winners. There are at least a dozen
major polling organizations who quiz Americans on a daily basis
about their approval or disapproval of current officials, their opinion
on the latest hot button political issues, and whether or
not the nation is on track or off the rails.

(00:44):
There's a lot at stake in these polls. Political donors
use them to decide which candidates and political issues to bankroll,
and savvy congressional representatives consult them to calculate the political
risk of backing or splitting with the White House on
its legislative agenda. But the polling number that grabs the
most headlines is the president's job approval rating. For example,
back in March, President Donald Trump tweeted about being proud

(01:07):
of having, according to Rasmusen reports, a job approval rating
of around even though russ Musen's approval members on that
particular day were only for The reason the president was
tweeting in March about his rounded up approval ratings and
the reason that democratic political pundits rushed to correct him
is that job approval ratings are about more than just

(01:27):
stoking or bashing the president's ego. They are perhaps the
best single predictor of who will win the mid term
elections in November. Midterm elections happen exactly two years after
each presidential election and almost always pose a serious challenge
for the party in the White House. The president's political
party has lost seats in the House of Representatives and

(01:48):
all but two midterm elections since World War Two. The
exceptions were Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in two
thousand two. What's interesting is that the severity of the
mid term losses appears to be directly related to the
popularity of the president. Gallup reported in that when post
war presidents had approval ratings of fifty percent or above

(02:09):
at the time of a midterm election, their party only
lost an average of fourteen seats in the House, but
if they had an approval rating of forty nine percent
or lower, the average loss was thirty six seats. Using
more recent data from nineteen seventy fourteen, Bloomberg put the
average loss at just thirty three seats for presidents with
approval ratings under fifty percent. But either way you slice it,

(02:32):
that's significant. There have been some exceptions, however. Ronald Reagan
had an approval rating of sixty three percent in nineteen
eighty six and his party still lost five seats in
the mid terms. And on the other side of the aisle,
John F. Kennedy had a sixty one percent approval rating
in nineteen sixty two and still lost four seats. The
connection between presidential job approval and midterm elections is particularly

(02:55):
strong during the first midterm election after a new president
takes the White House. Punditcy those first mid terms largely
as a referendum on the president's job performance. That's why
Democrats made such a big deal about the March thirteenth
special election in Pennsylvania, where their candidate won by the
slimmest of margins in a region that went heavily Republican.
In twenty sixteen. They point to it as a sign

(03:18):
that Trump's poor job performance and low approval ratings will
lead to a blue wave of Democratic victories later in
twenty eighteen. But what about presidential elections. Does it incumbent's
job approval rating make or break his chances of winning
re election? The short answer yes. Since World War Two,
not a single incumbent presidential candidate has won re election

(03:39):
with a job approval rating below fift Barack Obama almost
became the exception in twenty twelve, with an approval rating
in the mid forties a few months before election day,
though by November it had cleared the hurdle at fifty
one percent. But does that mean that if Trump's approval
rating continues to languish below fifty over the next two
years that he will deafly lose the reelection? In absolutely

(04:03):
not Many things about the Trump presidency to phi president.
For example, Trump was elected in ten despite being the
least liked major party presidential candidate of all time. His
unfavorability rating on election day was a whopping However, his
primary opponent, Hillary Clinton, had the second highest unfavorability rating

(04:25):
in history. At further Complicating matters is that not every
job approval poll comes up with these same numbers. That's
because each polling organization uses a slightly different methodology. Some posters,
like Gallop call up a representative sample of Americans over
the age of eighteen and simply ask them if they
approve or disapprove of the president's job performance. In Trump's case,

(04:48):
those polls result in lower approval and higher disapproval numbers.
But rasp Musin reports only counts answers from likely voters,
or people who say that they're likely to vote in
the next election. Rest Music and is also the only
company pulling people on a daily basis, and they give
respondents for options strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, and

(05:09):
strongly disapprove. In Trump's case, the inclusion of somewhat approved
seems to be enough to lift his rasp Musin approval
numbers as many as ten points higher than other major
national pollsters. Today's episode was written by Dave Ruse and
produced by Tyler Clang. For more on this and lots

(05:30):
of other popular topics, visit our home planet, how Stuff
Works dot com.